covid 19 and world economy essay

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Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy - Statistics & Facts

Affected industries, country and regional comparison: uk economy hit hard, china less affected, key insights.

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Forecasted global real GDP growth 2019-2024

Global unemployment rate 2004-2023

Monthly change in goods trade globally 2018-2024

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GDP growth rate of the world's seven largest economies 2021, by country

Projected GDP growth in China 2024

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Global economic impact.

• Basic Statistic Cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide from Jan. 22, 2020 to Jun. 13, 2023, by day
• Basic Statistic COVID-19 cases worldwide as of May 2, 2023, by country or territory
• Premium Statistic GDP loss due to COVID-19, by economy 2020
• Premium Statistic Forecasted global real GDP growth 2019-2024
• Premium Statistic Value of COVID-19 stimulus packages in the G20 as share of GDP 2021
• Basic Statistic Number of unemployed persons worldwide 1991-2024
• Premium Statistic COVID-19: effect on income groups globally 2020
• Premium Statistic Central bank policy rates in advanced and emerging economies 2019-2024

Cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide from Jan. 22, 2020 to Jun. 13, 2023, by day

Number of cumulative cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) worldwide from January 22, 2020 to June 13, 2023, by day

COVID-19 cases worldwide as of May 2, 2023, by country or territory

Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases worldwide as of May 2, 2023, by country or territory

GDP loss due to COVID-19, by economy 2020

Share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lost as a result of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in 2020, by economy

Global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth after the coronavirus (COVID-19) from 2019 with a forecast until 2024

Value of COVID-19 stimulus packages in the G20 as share of GDP 2021

Value of COVID-19 fiscal stimulus packages in G20 countries as of May 2021, as a share of GDP

Number of unemployed persons worldwide 1991-2024

Number of unemployed persons worldwide from 1991 to 2024 (in millions)

COVID-19: effect on income groups globally 2020

Change in number of people in selected income tiers due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide in 2020 (in millions)

Central bank policy rates in advanced and emerging economies 2019-2024

Central bank policy rates in major advanced and emerging economies from September 2019 to July 2024

Stock markets and COVID-19

• Premium Statistic Change in global stock index values during coronavirus outbreak 2020
• Basic Statistic Share price index in major developed and emerging economies 2019-2023
• Basic Statistic Monthly Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index performance 2018-2024
• Premium Statistic Coronavirus impact on the CAC 40 index in France 2020-2023
• Basic Statistic Weekly development DAX Index 2024
• Premium Statistic Weekly development Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 2020-2024

Change in global stock index values during coronavirus outbreak 2020

Change in value during coronavirus outbreak of selected stock market indices worldwide from January 1 to March 18, 2020

Share price index in major developed and emerging economies 2019-2023

Share price index in major developed and emerging economies from January 2019 to June 2023

Monthly Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index performance 2018-2024

Monthly development of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from July 2018 to July 2024

Coronavirus impact on the CAC 40 index in France 2020-2023

Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on the CAC 40 index in France from January 24, 2020 to April 17, 2023

Weekly development DAX Index 2024

Weekly development of the DAX Index from January 2020 to July 2024

Weekly development Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 2020-2024

Weekly development of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from January 2020 to July 2024

Impact on major industries

• Basic Statistic Weekly flights change of global airlines due to COVID-19 as of January 2021
• Basic Statistic Weekly oil prices in Brent, OPEC basket, and WTI futures 2022-2024
• Premium Statistic Global PMI for manufacturing and new export orders 2018-2024
• Premium Statistic Global merchandise imports index 2019-2023, by region
• Premium Statistic Global merchandise exports index 2019-2023, by region
• Premium Statistic Industrial production growth worldwide 2019-2024, by region

Weekly flights change of global airlines due to COVID-19 as of January 2021

Year-on-year change of weekly flight frequency of global airlines from January 6, 2020 to January 4, 2021, by country

Weekly oil prices in Brent, OPEC basket, and WTI futures 2022-2024

Closing price of Brent, OPEC basket, and WTI crude oil at the beginning of each week from September 19, 2022 to September 16, 2024 (in U.S. dollars per barrel)

Global PMI for manufacturing and new export orders 2018-2024

Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for manufacturing and new export orders from January 2018 to April 2024

Global merchandise imports index 2019-2023, by region

Global merchandise imports index between January 2019 to November 2023, by region

Global merchandise exports index 2019-2023, by region

Global merchandise exports index from January 2019 to November 2023, by region

Industrial production growth worldwide 2019-2024, by region

Global industrial production growth from January 2019 to April 2024, by region

Impact on trade and world's largest economies

• Premium Statistic GDP growth rate of the world's seven largest economies 2021, by country
• Premium Statistic Business confidence index among the world's seven largest economies 2020-2023
• Premium Statistic Change in GDP and trade volume globally 2007-2025
• Premium Statistic Monthly change in goods trade globally 2018-2024

GDP growth rate of the world's seven largest economies 2021, by country

GDP growth rate of the world's seven largest economies as of 3rd quarter of 2021, by country (compared to growth rate in 2020)

Business confidence index among the world's seven largest economies 2020-2023

Business confidence index (BCI) among the world's seven largest economies from January 2020 to August 2023*

Change in GDP and trade volume globally 2007-2025

Growth in GDP and trade volume worldwide from 2007 to 2025

Change in global goods trade volume from January 2018 to May 2024

Impact on Asia

• Basic Statistic GDP growth APAC 2018-2022, by sub-region
• Premium Statistic Projected GDP growth in China 2024
• Premium Statistic Cumulative number of workers to be fired due to COVID-19 Japan 2023, by industry
• Basic Statistic Estimated quarterly impact from COVID-19 on India's GDP FY 2020-2022
• Premium Statistic COVID-19 impact on unemployment rate in India 2020-2022
• Basic Statistic Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 in India 2020-21, by sector

GDP growth APAC 2018-2022, by sub-region

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Asia Pacific from 2018 to 2020 with forecasts to 2022, by sub-region

Median forecast for China's GDP growth rates in 2024 and 2025 as of July 2024

Cumulative number of workers to be fired due to COVID-19 Japan 2023, by industry

Cumulative number of employees who are planned to be dismissed due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impact in Japan as of March 2023

Estimated quarterly impact from COVID-19 on India's GDP FY 2020-2022

Estimated quarterly impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on India's GDP growth in financial year 2020 to 2022

COVID-19 impact on unemployment rate in India 2020-2022

Impact on unemployment rate due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India from January 2020 to May 2022

Estimated economic impact from COVID-19 in India 2020-21, by sector

Estimated impact from the coronavirus (COVID-19) on India from April 2020 to September 2021, by sector

Impact on Europe

• Premium Statistic GDP growth rate forecasts in European Union 2024
• Basic Statistic Market capital value of Europe's largest banks since the coronavirus 2019-2024
• Basic Statistic Market capitalizatio of European stock exchanges since Coronavirus outbreak 2019-2024
• Premium Statistic Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on real GDP in Italy 2021-2022
• Basic Statistic German export expectations for manufacturing 1991-2023
• Premium Statistic Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on GDP growth in France 2020, by scenario
• Basic Statistic Impact of COVID-19 on GDP dynamics in CEE region 2020

GDP growth rate forecasts in European Union 2024

Gross domestic product growth rate forecasts in the European Union in 2024, by member state (percentage increase on previous period)

Market capital value of Europe's largest banks since the coronavirus 2019-2024

Monthly market capitalization of Europe's largest banks since the coronavirus from December 2019 to March 2024 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Market capitalizatio of European stock exchanges since Coronavirus outbreak 2019-2024

Monthly market capitalization of European stock exchanges since the Coronavirus outbreak between December 2019 and March 2024 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on real GDP in Italy 2021-2022

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Italy in 2021 and 2022

German export expectations for manufacturing 1991-2023

Monthly balance values of the ifo export expectations for the German manufacturing sector from January 1991 to November 2023 (seasonally adjusted)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on GDP growth in France 2020, by scenario

Forecasted impact of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in France from 2020, by scenario

Impact of COVID-19 on GDP dynamics in CEE region 2020

Negative impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic on GDP dynamics in Central and Eastern European countries in 2020

Impact on the United States

• Basic Statistic U.S. real GDP growth by quarter Q2 2013- Q2 2024
• Basic Statistic U.S. unemployment insurance claims per week December 2022
• Basic Statistic U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2022-2024
• Basic Statistic U.S. unemployment rate 2024, by industry and class of worker
• Basic Statistic U.S. monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment 2024, by industry
• Basic Statistic U.S. monthly change in chained inflation 2024-2024
• Premium Statistic Share of workers and businesses impacted by COVID-19 2020

U.S. real GDP growth by quarter Q2 2013- Q2 2024

Annualized growth of real GDP in the United States from the second quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2024

U.S. unemployment insurance claims per week December 2022

Number of initial unemployment insurance claims made per week in the United States from the beginning of the pandemic to December 2022 (in 1,000s)

U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2022-2024

Monthly unemployment rate in the United States from July 2022 to August 2024 (seasonally-adjusted)

U.S. unemployment rate 2024, by industry and class of worker

Unemployment rate in the United States in August 2024, by industry and class of worker

U.S. monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment 2024, by industry

Monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment in the United States in August 2024, by industry sector (in 1,000s)

U.S. monthly change in chained inflation 2024-2024

Monthly change in the chained inflation rate in the United States from August 2024 to August 2024

Share of workers and businesses impacted by COVID-19 2020

Share of workers and businesses impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak on in the United States as of March 24, 2020, by effect

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The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World

This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries. Governments responded primarily by increasing expenditure, supported by an expansion of the supply of money and debt. These policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. For 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on output and prices were significant and persistent, especially in emerging and developing countries.

Fernando Martin is an assistant vice president and economist, Juan M. Sánchez is a vice president and economist, and Olivia Wilkinson is a senior research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTRODUCTION

For over two years, the world has been battling the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the writing of this article, deaths attributed to COVID-19 have surpassed six-and-a-half million people.  Global economic growth was severely impacted: World output by the end of 2021 was more than 4 percentage points below its pre-pandemic trend.  International trade was also significantly disrupted at the onset of the pandemic. The pandemic also prompted a strong policy response, resulting in a rise of government deficits and debt as well as widespread increases in the money supply. Finally, after an initial decline, prices have soared, resulting in elevated inflation rates.

This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. This shock was not felt simultaneously around the world, and mitigation policies, both health related and economic, varied substantially across countries. Yet there are some significant similarities in outcomes, especially when considering the pandemic period as a whole. Our analysis focuses on the shock's effects on specific groups of countries, related by their level of development and geographical location.

We find that the COVID-19 shock severely impacted output growth and employment in 2020, particularly in middle-income countries. The government response, mainly consisting of increased expenditure, implied a rise in debt levels. Advanced countries, having easier access to credit markets, experienced the highest increase in indebtedness. All regions also relied on monetary policy to support the fiscal expansion, and hence the money supply increased everywhere. The specific circumstances surrounding the shock implied that the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. When extending the analysis to 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the shock on output and prices have been significant and persistent, especially in emerging and developing countries.

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How COVID-19 has changed the global economy

Chicago booth scholars discuss what recovery might look like in the wake of a pandemic.

The worldwide economic landscape has changed dramatically over the past four months, as the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled activity in nearly every corner of the world. 

With these dramatic changes in mind, the University of Chicago Booth School of Business has convened its inaugural virtual Economic Outlook, focusing on the U.S., Asia and Europe in three events over three weeks.

During the April 30 debut of the online series, Profs.  Randall S. Kroszner ,  Austan D. Goolsbee  and  Raghuram G. Rajan  discussed the critical economic questions facing the world amid the COVID-19 crisis.

Moderated by Kathleen Hays of Bloomberg, the conversation ranged from the possible paths and pitfalls for recovery, to how economic sectors such as manufacturing and hospitality will fare, to concerns about incurring debt.

While much uncertainty remains, the Chicago Booth economists shared their perspectives and concerns around key questions facing business leaders, policymakers, employees, and families worldwide. Portions of the first event are highlighted below.

How have stay-at-home orders affected economies?

With tens of millions of unemployment claims in the United States, as well as more than 100 million jobs lost in India, global economies are suffering.

“We sent everyone home. We didn't allow people to go out and buy anything,” said Kroszner, a former governor of the Federal Reserve System who serves as Booth’s deputy dean for executive programs and Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics. “So it's not a surprise that you get this astonishing contraction in demand and production.”

Hoping for a ‘reverse check mark’

A former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and a member of President Barack Obama's cabinet, Goolsbee warned that a traditional recession recovery is a slow process.

“We could go from less than 4% unemployment to 15% in a short period of time. In a normal recovery, the unemployment rate only goes down 1 to 1.5 percentage points a year,” said Goolsbee, the Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics.

“Hopefully there is the possibility of a rapid recovery—maybe a reverse check mark where you went down, and then you came back at least part of the way at kind of a rapid pace. We absolutely have to do everything we can to go in that direction because the alternative is much more grim.”

Should the government bail out everyone?

Some sectors, such as manufacturing, can likely come back quickly, said Rajan, who previously served as the governor of the Reserve Bank of India and the chief economist and director of research at the International Monetary Fund. Others, however, will take much longer to fully recover—if they ever do at all. Those differences need to be taken into account when considering government interventions.

“One of the decisions we have to make soon is how the government spends that money,” said Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance. “It’s going to be expensive to keep the hospitality industry alive for a year or more until people feel comfortable going out again.”

Which sectors might expand or contract?

Kroszner said that an effective recovery strategy should consider which types of jobs will be available in the coming years and how to ensure that employees have the skills to fill them.

“Well-intentioned programs that are trying to freeze things as they were in February are going to make it more difficult for people to find new positions,” Kroszner said. “At some point we're going to have to allow for a transition. We've got to get the support structures right to get people moving into new sectors.”

Restarting regular economic activity

Goolsbee said that the shortest path to recovery is by spending on health care and testing.

“The most important thing you can do for the economy is slow the spread of the virus,” he said. “That’s how you stimulate the economy, because people have to feel safe leaving their homes. We’ve now got six countries that have gotten out of lockdown and are going back to normal. Each of them has done extensive testing to get the rate of the spread of the virus low enough that it peters itself out.”

Paying off debt

Goolsbee said there’s no alternative to adding to the debt, but we should be considering the long-term implications for paying off these debts.

“Nobody in June of 1944 questioned how to pay for D-Day and keep it revenue neutral,” he said. “If you look post-World War II, we went through a period of heavy taxation to pay back the debts that we accumulated. It's what we should have done, and spreading that over time is better than trying to pay for it all at once. The same is true here.”

Rajan added that these burdens could also affect future investment.

“This was the debt overhang problem that many emerging markets had,” Rajan said. “We should be wary when we have lots of debt and potential taxation down the line. A lot of investors are going to be worrying about where it's going to fall, and that could be perhaps very damaging for investment and growth.”

—This story was first published by  Chicago Booth . Register  here   to attend the next event in the virtual Economic Outlook series on May 13, featuring Profs. Veronica Guerrieri, Randall S. Kroszner and Brent Neiman.

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Impact of COVID-19 on the social, economic, environmental and energy domains: Lessons learnt from a global pandemic

a School of Information Systems and Modelling, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia

I.M. Rizwanul Fattah

Md asraful alam.

b School of Chemical Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

A.B.M. Saiful Islam

c Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, College of Engineering, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam 31451, Saudi Arabia

Hwai Chyuan Ong

S.m. ashrafur rahman.

d Biofuel Engine Research Facility, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia

e Tarbiat Modares University, P.O.Box: 14115-111, Tehran, Iran

f Science and Math Program, Asian University for Women, Chattogram 4000, Bangladesh

Md. Alhaz Uddin

g Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Jouf University, Sakaka, Saudi Arabia

T.M.I. Mahlia

COVID-19 has heightened human suffering, undermined the economy, turned the lives of billions of people around the globe upside down, and significantly affected the health, economic, environmental and social domains. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the ecological domain, the energy sector, society and the economy and investigate the global preventive measures taken to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. This analysis unpacks the key responses to COVID-19, the efficacy of current initiatives, and summarises the lessons learnt as an update on the information available to authorities, business and industry. This review found that a 72-hour delay in the collection and disposal of waste from infected households and quarantine facilities is crucial to controlling the spread of the virus. Broad sector by sector plans for socio-economic growth as well as a robust entrepreneurship-friendly economy is needed for the business to be sustainable at the peak of the pandemic. The socio-economic crisis has reshaped investment in energy and affected the energy sector significantly with most investment activity facing disruption due to mobility restrictions. Delays in energy projects are expected to create uncertainty in the years ahead. This report will benefit governments, leaders, energy firms and customers in addressing a pandemic-like situation in the future.

1. Introduction

The newly identified infectious coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was discovered in Wuhan and has spread rapidly since December 2019 within China and to other countries around the globe ( Zhou et al., 2020 ; Kabir et al., 2020 ). The source of SARS-CoV-2 is still unclear ( Gorbalenya et al., 2020 ). Fig. 1 demonstrates the initial timeline of the development of SARS-CoV-2 ( Yan et al., 2020 ). The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges to global safety in public health ( Wang et al., 2020 ). On 31 st January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO), due to growing fears about the rapid spread of coronavirus, announced a global epidemic and on 11 th March, the disease was recognised as a pandemic ( Chowdhury et al., 2021 ). COVID-19 clinical trials indicate that almost all patients admitted to hospital have trouble breathing and pneumonia-like symptoms ( Holshue et al., 2020 ). Clinical diagnosis has identified that COVID-19 (disease caused by SARS-CoV-2) patients have similar indications to other coronavirus affected patients, e.g. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ( Wang and Su, 2020 ). The initial indication of a COVID-19 infection is coughing, fever, and short breath, and in the later stages, it can damage the kidney, cause pneumonia, and unexpected death ( Mofijur et al., 2020 ). The vulnerability of the elderly (>80 years of age) is high, with a fatality rate of ~22% of cases infected by COVID-19 ( Abdullah et al., 2020 ). The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached over 33 million as of 29 th September 2020, with more than 213 countries and regions affected by the pandemic ( Worldometer, 2020 ). Over 1,003,569 people have already passed away ( Worldometer, 2020 ) due to COVID-19. Most countries are currently trying to combat the virus spread by screening for COVID-19 in large numbers and maintaining social distancing policies with an emphasis on the health of human beings.

The initial stage development timeline for COVID-19 ( Yan et al., 2020 ).

Fig. 2 shows infections and replication cycle of the coronavirus. In extreme cases, the lungs are the most severely damaged organ of a SARS-CoV-2 infected person (host). The alveoli are porous cup-formed small cavities located in the structure of the lungs where the gas exchange of the breathing process take place. The most common cells on the alveoli are the type II cells.

Infections and replication cycle of the coronavirus ( Acter et al., 2020 ).

It has been reported that travel restrictions play a significant role in controlling the initial spread of COVID-19 ( Chinazzi et al., 2020 ; Aldila et al., 2020 ; Beck and Hensher, 2020 ; Bruinen de Bruin et al., 2020 ; de Haas et al., 2020 ). It has been reported that staying at home is most useful in controlling both the initial and last phase of infectious diseases ( de Haas et al., 2020 ; Cohen, 2020 , Pirouz et al., 2020 ). However, since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines, entry bans, as well as other limitations have been implemented for citizens in or recent travellers to several countries in the most affected areas ( Sohrabi et al., 2020 ). Also, most of the industries were shutdown to lower mobility. A potential benefit of these measures is the reduction of pollution by the industrial and transportation sector, improving urban sustainability ( Jiang et al., 2021 ). Fig. 3 shows the global responses to lower the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. There have been negative economic and social implications due to restrictions and decreased travel readiness worldwide ( Leal Filho et al., 2020 ). A fall in the volume of business activity and international events and an increase in online measures could have a long-term impact. The status of global transport and air activity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is shown in Fig. 4 ( International Energy Agency (IEA), 2020 ). By March 2020, the average global road haulage activity in regions with lockdowns had declined to almost 50% of the 2019 standard. Air travel has almost completely stopped in certain regions with aviation activity decreasing by over 90% in some European countries. Air activity in China recovered slightly from a low in late February, with lockdown measures somewhat eased. Nevertheless, as lockdowns spread, by the end of Q1 2020, global aviation activity decreased by a staggering 60%.

Initial preventive measures to lower the COVID-19 outbreak ( Bruinen de Bruin et al., 2020 ).

Global transport and aviation activity in the first quarter of the year 2020 ( International Energy Agency (IEA), 2020 ).

The spread of COVID-19 continues to threaten the public health situation severely ( Chinazzi et al., 2020 ) and greatly affect the global economy. Labour displacement, business closures and stock crashes are just some of the impacts of this global lockdown during the pandemic. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the effect of COVID-19 will result in a worldwide economic decline in 2020 and a decline in the economic growth to 3% ( International Monetary Fund (IMF) ). COVID-19 has a detrimental impact on economic growth due to two primary factors. In the beginning, the exponential growth of the global epidemic directly contributed to considerable confusion about instability in the financial and capital markets. Secondly, countries have strictly regulated human movement and transport to monitor the growth of the epidemic and significantly reduced economic activity, putting pressure on both consumer and productive economic activity.

Since the 1970s, the link between economic growth and pollution has been an important global concern. The assessment of energy and financial efficiency is usually connected to environmental pollution research. Green practices at a national level, the inclusion of renewable energy, regulatory pressure and the sustainable use of natural resources are associated with environmental sustainability ( Khan et al., 2020 ). One study has shown that environmental pollution increases with economic growth and vice versa ( Cai et al., 2020 ). The strict control over movement and business activity due to COVID-19 has led to an economic downturn, which is in turn, expected to reduce environmental pollution. This paper systematically assesses how the novel coronavirus has had a global effect on society, the energy sector and the environment. This study presents data compiled from the literature, news sources and reports (from February 2020 to July 2020) on the management steps implemented across the globe to control and reduce the impact of COVID-19. The study will offer guidelines for nations to assess the overall impact of COVID-19 in their countries.

2. Impact of COVID-19 on the environmental domain

2.1. waste generation.

The generation of different types of waste indirectly creates a number of environmental concerns ( Schanes et al., 2018 ). The home isolation and pop-up confinement services in countries that have experienced major impacts of COVID-19 are standard practise, as hospitals are given priority to the most serious cases. In some countries, hotels are being used to isolate travellers for at least two weeks on entry. In several countries, such quarantine measures have resulted in consumers increasing their domestic online shopping activity that has increased domestic waste. In addition, food bought online is packaged, so inorganic waste has also increased. Medical waste has also increased. For instance, Wuhan hospitals produced an average of 240 metric tonnes of medical waste during the outbreak compared to their previous average of fewer than 50 tonnes ( Zambrano-Monserrate et al., 2020 ). This unusual situation poses new and major obstacles in the implementation of waste collection services, thus creating a new challenge for waste collection and recycling groups. With the global adaptation to exponential behavioural and social shifts in the face of COVID-19 challenges, municipal services such as waste collection and management need to alter their operations to play an important role in reducing the spread of infectious diseases.

2.1.1. Lifespan of COVID-19 on different waste media

SARS-CoV-2′s transmission activity has major repercussions for waste services. SARS-CoV-2 attacks host cells with ACE2 proteins directly. ACE2 is a cell membrane-associated enzyme in the lungs, heart and kidneys. When all the resources in the host cell are infected and depleted, the viruses leave the cell in the so-called shedding cycle ( Nghiem et al., 2020 ). Clinical and virological evidence suggests that the elimination of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is most relevant early on, right before and within a couple of days of the onset of the illness ( AEMO, 2020 ). Fomites are known as major vectors for the replication of other infectious viruses during the outbreak ( Park et al., 2015 ). Evidence from SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses show that they remain effective for up to a few days in the atmosphere and on a variety of surfaces ( Fig. 5 ). The survival time of SARS-CoV-2 on hard and plastic surfaces is up to three days indicating that waste materials from COVID-19 patients may contain coronavirus and be a source of infection spread ( Chin et al., 2020 ). During the early stages of this epidemic, updated waste disposal methods to tackle COVID-19 were not implemented on the broader community. The concept of clinical waste essentially also applies to waste from contaminated homes and quarantine facilities. Throughout this pandemic, huge volumes of domestic and hospital waste, particularly plastic waste, has been generated. This has already impeded current efforts to reduce plastic waste and decrease its disposal in the environment. More effort should be made to find alternatives to heavily used plastics.

The lifespan of SARS-CoV-2 on different media ( Chin et al., 2020 ; van Doremalen et al.; 2020 ; Ye et al., 2016 )

2.1.2. Waste recycling service

COVID-19 has already had significant effects on waste recycling. Initially, as the outbreak spread and lockdowns were implemented in several countries, both public authorities and municipal waste management officials had to adjust to the situation quickly. Waste disposal has also been a major environmental problem for all technologically advanced nations, as no clear information was available about the retention time of SARS-CoV-2 ( Liu et al., 2020 ). Recycling is a growing and efficient means of pollution control, saving energy and conserving natural resources ( Ma et al., 2019 ). Recycling projects in various cities have been put on hold due to the pandemic, with officials worried about the possibility of COVID-19 spreading to recycling centres. Waste management has been limited in affected European countries. For example, Italy prohibited the sorting of waste by infected citizens. Extensive waste management during the pandemic is incredibly difficult because of the scattered nature of the cases and the individuals affected. The value of implementing best management practises for waste handling and hygiene to minimise employee exposure to potentially hazardous waste, should be highlighted at this time. Considering the possible role of the environment in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 ( Qu et al., 2020 ), the processing of both household and quarantine facility waste is a crucial point of control. Association of Cities and Regions for sustainable Resource management (ACR+) has reported on the provision of separate collection services to COVID-19 contaminated households and quarantine facilities to protect frontline waste workers in Europe, as shown in Fig. 6 . ACR+ also suggests a 72-hour delay in waste disposal (the possible lifespan of COVID-19 in the environment) ( Nghiem et al., 2020 ). Moreover, the collected waste should be immediately transported to waste incinerators or sites without segregation.

Recommended waste management during COVID-19 ( ACR+ 2020 ).

2.2. NO 2 emissions

Without the global pandemic, we had naively anticipated that in 2020 global emissions would rise by around 1% on a five-year basis. Instead, the sharp decline in economic activity in response to the current crisis will most probably lead to a modest drop in global greenhouse emissions. The European Space Agency (ESA), with its head office in Paris, France, is an intergovernmental body made up of 22 European countries committed to exploring the international space. To monitor air pollution in the atmosphere, the ESA uses the Copernicus Sentinel-5P Satellite. In addition to the compound contents measurement, the Copernicus Sentinel-5P troposphere monitor (TROPOMI) and other specified precision equipment measure ozone content, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane. Table 1 shows NO 2 emissions data acquisition by ESA using Sentinel-5P across different regions of Europe ( Financial Times, 2020 ).

NO 2 emissions data acquisition by ESA using Sentinel-5P across different regions of Europe ( Financial Times, 2020 ).

Burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, gas and other fuels, is the source of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide ( Munawer, 2018 ). The bulk of the NO 2 in cities, however, comes from emissions from motor vehicles (approximately 80%). Other NO 2 sources include petroleum and metal refining, coal-fired electricity, other manufacturing and food processing industries. Some NO 2 is naturally produced by lightning in the atmosphere and from the soil, water, and plants, which, taken together, constitutes not even 1% of the total NO 2 found in the air of our localities. Due to pollution variations as well as changes in weather conditions, the levels of the NO 2 in our atmosphere differ widely every day. Anthropogenic pollution is estimated to contain around 53 million tonnes of NO 2 annually. Nitrogen dioxide, together with nitrogen oxide (NO), are considered the major components of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) ( M Palash et al., 2013 ; Fattah et al., 2013 ). NO, and NO 2 are susceptible to other chemicals and form acid rain that is toxic to the environment ( Mofijur et al., 2013 ; Ashraful et al., 2014 ), WHO lists NO 2 as one of the six typical air contaminants in the atmosphere. For this reason, the amount of NO 2 in the atmosphere is used as a precise measure for determining whether the COVID-19 outbreak affects environmental pollution.

NO 2 is an irritating reddish-brown gas with an unpleasant smell, and when cooled or compressed, it becomes a yellowish-brown liquid ( Wang and Su, 2020 ). NO 2 inflames the lung linings and can decrease lung infection immunity. High levels of NO 2 in the air we breathe can corrode our body's lung tissues . Nitrogen dioxide is a problematic air pollutant because it leads to brown photochemical smog formation, which can have significant impacts on human health ( Huang et al., 2020 ). Brief exposure to high concentrations of NO 2 can lead to respiratory symptoms such as coughing, wheezing, bronchitis, flu, etc., and aggravate respiratory illnesses such as asthma. Increased NO 2 levels can have major effects on individuals with asthma, sometimes leading to frequent and intense attacks ( Munawer, 2018 ). Asthmatic children and older individuals with cardiac illness are most vulnerable in this regard. However, its main drawback is that it produces two of the most harmful air pollutants, ozone and airborne particles. Ozone gas affects our lungs and the crops we eat.

2.2.1. NO₂ emissions across different countries

According to the ESA ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ), average levels of NO 2 declined by 40% between 13 th March 2020 to 13 th April 2020. The reduction was 55% compared to the same period in 2019. Fig. 7 compares the 2019-2020 NO 2 concentration ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ). The displayed satellite image was captured with the TROPOMI by ESA satellite Sentinel-5P. The percentage reductions in average NO 2 emissions in European countries during the COVID-19 outbreak from 1 st April to 30 th April 2020 can be seen in Fig. 8 ( Myllyvirta, 2020 ). Portugal, Spain, Norway, Croatia, France, Italy, and Finland are the countries that experienced the largest decrease in NO 2 levels, with 58%, 48%, 47%, 43% and 41%, respectively.

Comparison of the NO 2 concentration between 2019 and 2020 in Europe ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ).

Changes in average NO 2 emission in different countries ( Myllyvirta, 2020 ).

The average 10-day animation of NO 2 emissions throughout Europe (from 1 st January to 11 th March 2020), demonstrated the environmental impact of Italy's economic downturn, see Fig. 9 ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ). In the recent four weeks (Last week of February 2020 to the third week of March 2020) the average concentration of NO 2 in Milan, Italy, has been at least 24% less than the previous four weeks. In the week of 16 – 22 March, the average concentration was 21% lower than in 2019 for the same week. Over the last four weeks of January 2020, NO 2 emissions in Bergamo city has been gradually declining. During the week of 16–22 March, the average concentration was 47% less than in 2019. In Rome, NO 2 rates were 26–35% lower than average in the last four weeks (third week of January 2020 to the third week of February 2020) than they were during the same week of 2019 ( Atmosphere Monitoring Service, 2020 ).

Changes of NO 2 emission (a) over entire Italy (b) capital city (c) other cities ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ; Atmosphere Monitoring Service, 2020 ).

Fig. 10 shows a comparison of NO 2 volumes in Spain in March 2019 and 2020. As per ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ), Spain's NO 2 pollutants decreased by up to 20–30% due to lockdown, particularly across big cities like Madrid, Barcelona, and Seville. ESA Sentinel-5P captured the satellite image using TROPOMI. Satellite images of the 10 days between 14 th and 25 th March 2020 show that NO 2 tropospheric concentration in the areas of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and Murcia ranges from 0–90 mg/m 3 . The NO 2 tropospheric concentration for Seville is almost 0 mg/m 3 for the same time. For March 2019, the average NO 2 tropospheric concentration for the Madrid area was between 90 and 160 mg/m 3 . At the same time, the range of NO 2 tropospheric concentration for Barcelona, Valencia, and Seville area was between 90–140 mg/m 3 , 90-130 mg/m 3 , and 30–50 mg/m 3 , respectively.

Comparison between before and after lockdown NO 2 emissions in Spain ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ).

Fig. 11 shows the reduction in the amount of NO 2 emissions in France in March 2019 and 2020 ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ). In France, levels of NO 2 have been reduced by 20% to 30%. The ESA Sentinel-5P satellite image was captured with the TROPOMI. In Paris and other major cities, the emission levels of NO 2 considerably lowered due to lockdown. The three major areas of France where NO 2 tropospheric concentration was significant are Paris, Lyon, Marseille and their surroundings. Satellite images of the ten days between 14 th and 25 th March 2020 show that NO 2 tropospheric concentration of the Paris, Lyon, Marseille areas ranges 30–90 mg/m 3 , 20–40 mg/m 3 and 40–80 mg/m 3 , respectively. For March 2019, the average NO 2 tropospheric concentration for the same areas was reported as 100–160 mg/m 3 , 30–60 mg/m 3, and 90–140 mg/m 3 , respectively.

Comparison of NO 2 emissions in France before and after lockdown ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ).

Various industries across the UK have been affected by COVID-19, which has influenced air contamination. As shown in Fig. 12 , there were notable drops in the country's NO 2 emissions on the first day of quarantine ( Khoo, 2020 ). Edinburgh showed the most significant reduction. The average NO 2 emissions on 26 th March 2020, were 28 μg/m 3 while on the same day of 2019, this was 74 μg/m 3 ( Khoo, 2020 ). The second biggest reduction was observed in London Westminster where emissions reduced from 58 µg/m 3 to 30 µg/m 3 . Not all cities have seen such a significant decrease, with daily air pollution reducing by 7 μg/m 3 compared to the previous year in Manchester Piccadilly, for example ( Statista, 2020 ).

(a) Changes in NO 2 emissions in the UK during lockdown ( European Space Agency (ESA), 2020 ); (b) comparison of NO 2 emissions in 2019 and 2020 ( Khoo, 2020 ).

2.3. PM emission

The term particulate matter, referred to as PM, is used to identify tiny airborne particles. PM forms in the atmosphere when pollutants chemically react with each other. Particles include pollution, dirt, soot, smoke, and droplets. Pollutants emitted from vehicles, factories, building sites, tilled areas, unpaved roads and the burning of fossil fuels also contribute to PM in the air ( Baensch-Baltruschat et al., 2020 ). Grilling food (by burning leaves or gas grills), smoking cigarettes, and burning wood on a fireplace or stove also contribute to PM. The aerodynamic diameter is considered a simple way to describe PM's particle size as these particles occur in various shapes and densities. Particulates are usually divided into two categories, namely, PM 10 that are inhalable particles with a diameter of 10 μm or less and PM 2.5 which are fine inhalable particle with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less. PM 2.5 exposure causes relatively severe health problems such as non-fatal heart attacks, heartbeat irregularity, increased asthma, reduced lung function, heightened respiratory symptoms, and premature death ( Weitekamp et al., 2020 ).

PM 2.5 also poses a threat to the environment, including lower visibility (haze) in many parts of the globe. Particulates can be transported long distances then settle on the ground or in water sources. In these contexts and as a function of the chemical composition, PM 2.5 may cause acidity in lakes and stream water, alter the nutrient balance in coastal waters and basins, deplete soil nutrients and damage crops on farms, affect the biodiversity in the ecosystem, and contribute to acid rain. This settling of PM, together with acid rain, can also stain and destroy stones and other materials such as statues and monuments, which include valuable cultural artefacts ( Awad et al., 2020 ).

2.3.1. PM emission in different countries

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, PM emission in most countries has been reduced ( Chatterjee et al., 2020 ; Ghahremanloo et al., 2021 ; Gualtieri et al., 2020 ; Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020 ; Srivastava, 2020 ). Fig. 13 shows the impact of COVID19 on PM emission in a number of some countries around the world ( Myllyvirta, 2020 ). The largest reductions in PM pollution took place in Portugal, with 55%, followed by Norway, Sweden, and Poland with reductions of 32%, 30%, and 28%, respectively. Spain, Poland, and Finland recorded PM emission reductions of 19%, 17% and 16%, respectively. Both Romania and Croatia recorded no changes in PM level, with Switzerland and Hungary recording about a 3% increase in PM emission.

Reduction of PM emission in different countries ( Myllyvirta, 2020 ).

PM emissions have been significantly reduced during the epidemic in most regions of Italy. Fig. 14 illustrates the changes in COVID-19 containment emissions before and after a lockdown in major cities in Italy. According to a recent study by Sicard et al. ( Sicard et al., 2020 ), lockdown interventions have had a greater effect on PM emission. They found that confinement measures reduce PM 10 emissions in all major cities by “around 30% to 53%” and “around 35% to 56%”.

Comparison of PM emission in Italy (a) PM 2.5 emission (b) Changes of PM 2.5 emission (c) PM 10 emission (d) Changes of PM 10 emission ( Sicard et al., 2020 ).

2.4. Noise emission

Noise is characterised as an undesirable sound that may be produced from different activities, e.g. transit by engine vehicles and high volume music. Noise can cause health problems and alter the natural condition of ecosystems. It is among the most significant sources of disruption in people and the environment ( Zambrano-Monserrate and Ruano, 2019 ). The European Environment Agency (EEA) states that traffic noise is a serious environmental problem that negatively affects the health and security of millions of citizens in Europe. The consequences of long-term exposure to noise include sleep disorders, adverse effects on the heart and metabolic systems, and cognitive impairment in children. The EEA estimates that noise pollution contributes to 48,000 new cases of heart disease and 12,000 early deaths per year. They also reported chronic high irritation for 22 million people and a chronic high level of sleep disorder for 6.5 million people ( Lillywhite, 2020 ).

Most governments have imposed quarantine measures that require people to spend much more time at home. This has considerably reduced the use of private and public transport. Commercial activities have almost completely stopped. In most cities in the world, these changes have caused a significant decline in noise levels. This was followed by a significant decline in pollution from contaminants and greenhouse gas emissions. Noise pollution from sources like road, rail or air transport has been linked to economic activity. Consequently, we anticipate that the levels of transport noise will decrease significantly due to the decreased demand for mobility in the short term ( Ro, 2020 ).

For example, it was obvious that environmental noise in Italy was reduced after 8 th March 2020 (the lockdown start date) due to a halt in commercial and recreational activities. A seismograph facility in Lombardy city in Italy that was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic indicated how the quarantine measures reduce both traffic and noise emissions. The comparison of the 24-hour seismic noise data before and after the lockdown period indicates a considerable drop in environmental noise in Italy ( Bressan, 2020 ).

3. Impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic domain

COVID-19 has created a global health crisis where countless people are dying, human suffering is spreading, and people's lives are being upended ( Nicola et al., 2020 ). It is not only just a health crisis but also a social and economic crisis, both of which are fundamental to sustainable development ( Pirouz et al., 2020 ). On 11 th March 2020, when WHO declared a global pandemic, 118,000 reported cases spanning 114 countries with over 4,000 fatalities had been reported. It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000, and just four days for the third ( United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2020 ). This has overwhelmed the health systems of even the richest countries with doctors being forced to make the painful decision of who lives and who dies. The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the world into uncertainty and countries do not have a clear exit strategy in the absence of a vaccine. This pandemic has affected all segments of society. However, it is particularly damaging to vulnerable social groups, including people living in poverty, older persons, persons with disabilities, youths, indigenous people and ethnic minorities. People with no home or shelter such as refugees, migrants, or displaced persons will suffer disproportionately, both during the pandemic and in its aftermath. This might occur in multiple ways, such as experiencing limited movement, fewer employment opportunities, increased xenophobia, etc. The social crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic may also increase inequality, discrimination and medium and long-term unemployment if not properly addressed by appropriate policies.

The protection measures taken to save lives are severely affecting economies all over the world. As discussed previously, the key protection measure adopted universally is the lockdown, which has forced people to work from home wherever possible. Workplace closures have disrupted supply chains and lowered productivity. In many instances, governments have closed borders to contain the spread. Other measures such as travel bans and the prohibition of sporting events and other mass gatherings are also in place. In addition, measures such as discouraging the use of public transport and public spaces, for example, restaurants, shopping centres and public attractions are also in place in many parts of the world. The situation is particularly dire in hospitality-related sectors and the global travel industry, including airlines, cruise companies, casinos and hotels which are facing a reduction in business activity of more than 90% ( Fernandes, 2020 ). The businesses that rely on social interactions like entertainment and tourism are suffering severely, and millions of people have lost their jobs. Layoffs, declines in personal income, and heightened uncertainty have made people spend less, triggering further business closures and job losses ( Ghosh, 2020 ).

A key performance indicator of economic health is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), typically calculated on a quarterly or annual basis. IMF provides a GDP growth estimate per quarter based on global economic developments during the near and medium-term. According to its estimate, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by 3% in 2020, which is much worse than the 2008 global financial crisis ( International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2020 ). The growth forecast was marked down by 6% in the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) compared to that of the October 2019 WEO and January 2020 WEO. Most economies in the advanced economy group are expected to contract in 2020, including the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain by 5.9%, 5.4%, 6.5%, 7.0%, 7.2%, 9.1%, and 8.0% respectively. Fig. 15 a shows the effect of COVID-19 on the GDP of different countries around the globe. On the other hand, economies of emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, are projected to contract by only 1.0% in 2020. The economic recovery in 2021 will depend on the gradual rolling back of containment efforts in the latter part of 2020 that will restore consumer and investor confidence. According to the April 2020 WEO, the level of GDP at the end of 2021 in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain below the pre-virus baseline (January 2020 WEO Update), as shown in Fig. 15 b.

(a) Quarterly World GDP. 2019:Q1 =100, dashed line indicates estimates from January 2020 WEO; (b) GDP fall due to lockdown in selected countries.

A particular example of a country hardest hit by COVID-19 is Italy. During the early days of March, the Italian government imposed quarantine orders in major cities that locked down more than seventeen million people ( Andrews, 2020 ). The mobility index data by Google for Italy shows there has been a significant reduction in mobility (and therefore economic activity) across various facets of life. The reported decline of mobility in retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, transit stations and workplaces were 35%, 11%, 45% and 34% respectively ( Rubino, 2020 ). The Italian economy suffered great financial damage from the pandemic. The tourism, and hospitality sectors were among those most severely affected by foreign countries prohibiting travel to and from Italy, and by the government's national lockdowns in early March ( Brunton, 2020 ). A March 2020 study in Italy showed that about 99% of the companies in the housing and utility sector said the epidemic had affected their industry. In addition, transport and storage was the second most affected sector. Around 83% of companies operating in this sector said that their activities had been affected by the coronavirus ( Statista, 2020 ) pandemic. In April 2020, Italian Minister Roberto Gualtieri estimated a 6% reduction in the GDP for the year 2020 ( Bertacche et al., 2020 ). The government of Italy stopped all unnecessary companies, industries and economic activities on 21 st March 2020. Therefore The Economist estimates a 7% fall in GDP in 2020 ( Horowitz, 2020 ). The Economist predicted that the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio would grow from 130% to 180% by the end of 2020 ( Brunton, 2020 ) and it is also assumed that Italy will have difficulty repaying its debt ( Bertacche et al., 2020 ).

4. Impact of COVID-19 on the energy domain

COVID-19 has not only impacted health, society and the economy but it has also had a strong impact on the energy sector ( Chakraborty and Maity, 2020 ; Abu-Rayash and Dincer, 2020 ). World energy demand fell by 3.8% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 compared with Q1 2019. In Q1 of 2020, the global coal market was heavily impacted by both weather conditions and the downturn in economic activity resulting in an almost 8% fall compared to Q1 2019. The fall was primarily in the electricity sector as a result of substantial declines in demand (-2.5%) and competitive advantages from predominantly low-cost natural gas. The market for global oil has plummeted by almost 5%. Travel bans, border closures, and changes in work routines significantly decreased the demand for the use of personal vehicles and air transport. Thus rising global economic activity slowed down the use of fuel for transportation ( Madurai Elavarasan et al., 2020 ). In Q1 2020, the output from nuclear energy plants decreased worldwide, especially in Europe and the US, as they adjusted for lower levels of demand. Demand for natural gas dropped significantly, by approximately 2% in Q1 2020, with the biggest declines in China, Europe, and the United States. In the Q1 2020, the need for renewable energy grew by around 1.5%, driven in recent years by the increasing output of new wind and solar plants. Renewable energy sources substantially increased in the electricity generation mix, with record hourly renewable energy shares in Belgium, Italy, Germany, Hungary, and East America. The share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix has increased. Table 2 shows the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the energy demand around the world.

Impact of COVID-19 on global energy sector ( AEMO, 2020 ; CIS Editorial, 2020 ; Eurelectric, 2020 ; Livemint, 2020 ; Renewable Energy World, 2020 ; S&P Global, 2020 ; Madurai Elavarasan et al., 2020 ).

Different areas have implemented lockdown of various duration. Therefore, regional energy demand depends on when lockdowns were introduced and how lockdowns influence demand in each country. In Korea and Japan, the average impact on demand is reduced to less than 10%, with lower restrictions. In China, where the first COVID-19 confinement measures were introduced, not all regions faced equally stringent constraints. Nevertheless, virus control initiatives have resulted in a decline of up to 15% in weekly energy demand across China. In Europe, moderate to complete lockdowns were more radical. On average, a 17% reduction in weekly demand was experienced during temporary confinement periods. India's complete lockdown has cut energy requirements by approximately 30%, which indicates yearly energy needs are lowered by 0.6% for each incremental lockdown week ( International Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 ).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted an annual average decline in oil production of 9% in 2020, reflecting a return to 2012 levels. Broadly, as electricity demand has decreased by about 5% throughout the year, coal production may fall by 8%, and the output of coal-fired electricity generation could fall by more than 10%. During the entire year, gas demand may fall far beyond Q1 2020 due to a downward trend in power and industrial applications. Nuclear energy demand will also decrease in response to reduced electricity demand. The demand for renewable energies should grow due to low production costs and the choice of access to many power systems. Khan et al. (2020) reported that international trade is significantly and positively dependent on renewable energy. In addition, sustainable growth can be facilitated through the consumption of renewable energy which improves the environment, enhances national image globally and opens up international trade opportunities with environmentally friendly countries ( Khan et al., 2021 ). As such, policies that promote renewables can result in economic prosperity, create a better environment as well as meet critical goals for sustainable development ( Khan et al., 2020 ).

5. Preventive measures to control COVID-19 outbreak

COVID-19 is a major crisis needing an international response. Governments will ensure reliable information is provided to assist the public in combating this pandemic. Community health and infection control measures are urgently needed to reduce the damage done by COVID-19 and minimise the overall spread of the virus. Self-defence techniques include robust overall personal hygiene, face washing, refraining from touching the eyes, nose or mouth, maintaining physical distance and avoiding travel. In addition, different countries have already taken preventive measures, including the implementation of social distancing, medicine, forestation and a worldwide ban on wildlife trade. A significant aim of the community health system is to avoid SARS-CoV-2 transmission by limiting large gatherings. COVID-19 is transmitted by direct communication from individual to individual. Therefore, the key preventive technique is to limit mass gatherings. Table 3 shows the impact of lockdown measures on the recovery rate of COVID-19 infections. The baseline data for this table is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period 3 rd January to 6 th February 2020.

Mobility index report of different countries ( Ghosh, 2020 ; Johns Hopkins University (JHU), 2020 ; Worldometer, 2020 ).

As of today, no COVID-19 vaccine is available. Worldwide scientists are racing against time to develop the COVID-19 vaccine, and WHO is now monitoring more than 140 vaccine candidates. As of 29 th September 2020, about 122 candidates have been pre-clinically checked, i.e. determining whether an immune response is caused when administering the vaccine to animals ( Biorender, 2020 ). About 45 candidates are in stage I where tests on a small number of people are conducted to decide whether it is effective ( Biorender, 2020 ). About 29 candidates are in Phase II where hundreds of people are tested to assess additional health issues and doses ( Biorender, 2020 ). Only 14 candidates are currently in Phase III, where thousands of participants are taking a vaccine to assess any final safety concerns, especially with regard to side effects ( Biorender, 2020 ). 3 candidates are in Phase IV, where long-term effects of the vaccines on a larger population is observed ( Biorender, 2020 ). The first generation of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to gain approval by the end of 2020 or in early 2021 ( Peiris and Leung, 2020 ). It is anticipated that these vaccines will provide immunity to the population. These vaccines can also reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and lead to a resumption of a pre-COVID-19 normal. Table 4 shows the list of vaccines that have been passed in the pre-clinical stage. In addition, according to the COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutics tracker, there are 398 therapeutic drugs in development. Of these, 83 are in the pre-clinical phase, 100 in Phase I, 224 in Phase II, 119 in Phase III and 46 in Phase IV ( Biorender, 2020 ).

List of vaccines that have passed the pre-clinical stage ( Biorender, 2020 ).

In addition to the above, forestation and a worldwide ban on wildlife trade can also play a significant role in reducing the spread of different viruses. More than 30% of the ground area is covered with forests. The imminent increase in population contributes to deforestation in agriculture or grazing for food, industries and property. The rise in ambient temperature, sea levels and extreme weather events affects not only the land and environment but also public health ( Ruscio et al., 2015 ; Arora and Mishra, 2020 ). Huge investment has been made into treatments, rehabilitation and medications to avoid the impact of this epidemic. However, it is important to focus on basic measures, e.g. forestation and wildlife protection. The COVID-19 infection was initially spread from the Seafood Market, Wuhan, China. Therefore, China temporarily banned wildlife markets in which animals are kept alive in small cages. It has been reported that 60% of transmittable diseases are animal-borne, 70% of which are estimated to have been borne by wild animals ( Chakraborty and Maity, 2020 ). Deforestation is also related to various kinds of diseases caused by birds, bats, etc. ( Afelt et al., 2018 ). For example, COVID-19 is a bat-borne disease that is transmitted to humans. Therefore, several scientists have advised various countries to ban wildlife trade indefinitely so that humans can be protected from new viruses and global pandemics like COVID-19.

6. Conclusion

In this article, comprehensive analyses of energy, environmental pollution, and socio-economic impacts in the context of health emergency events and the global responses to mitigate the effects of these events have been provided. COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic that puts a stop to economic activity and poses a severe risk to overall wellbeing. The global socio-economic impact of COVID-19 includes higher unemployment and poverty rates, lower oil prices, altered education sectors, changes in the nature of work, lower GDPs and heightened risks to health care workers. Thus, social preparedness, as a collaboration between leaders, health care workers and researchers to foster meaningful partnerships and devise strategies to achieve socio-economic prosperity, is required to tackle future pandemic-like situations. The impact on the energy sector includes increased residential energy demand due to a reduction in mobility and a change in the nature of work. Lockdowns across the globe have restricted movement and have placed people primarily at home, which has, in turn, decreased industrial and commercial energy demand as well as waste generation. This reduction in demand has resulted in substantial decreases in NO 2, PM, and environmental noise emissions and as a consequence, a significant reduction in environmental pollution. Sustainable urban management that takes into account the positive benefits of ecological balance is vital to the decrease of viral infections and other diseases. Policies that promote sustainable development, ensuring cities can enforce recommended measures like social distancing and self-isolation will bring an overall benefit very quickly. The first generation of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to gain approval by the end of 2020 or in early 2021, which will provide immunity to the population. It is necessary to establish preventive epidemiological models to detect the occurrence of viruses like COVID-19 in advance. In addition, governments, policymakers, and stakeholders around the world need to take necessary steps, such as ensuring healthcare services for all citizens, supporting those who are working in frontline services and suffering significant financial impacts, ensuring social distancing, and focussing on building a sustainable future. It is also recommended that more investment is required in research and development to overcome this pandemic and prevent any similar crisis in the future.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Editor: Dr. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan

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The Global Economy: on Track for Strong but Uneven Growth as COVID-19 Still Weighs

A year and a half since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is poised to stage its most robust post-recession recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound is expected to be uneven across countries, as major economies look set to register strong growth even as many developing economies lag.

Global growth is expected to accelerate to 5.6% this year, largely on the strength in major economies such as the United States and China. And while growth for almost every region of the world has been revised upward for 2021, many continue to grapple with COVID-19 and what is likely to be its long shadow. Despite this year’s pickup, the level of global GDP in 2021 is expected to be 3.2% below pre-pandemic projections, and per capita GDP among many emerging market and developing economies is anticipated to remain below pre-COVID-19 peaks for an extended period. As the pandemic continues to flare, it will shape the path of global economic activity.

The United States and China are each expected to contribute about one quarter of global growth in 2021. The U.S. economy has been bolstered by massive fiscal support, vaccination is expected to become widespread by mid-2021, and growth is expected to reach 6.8% this year, the fastest pace since 1984. China’s economy – which did not contract last year – is expected to grow a solid 8.5% and moderate as the country’s focus shifts to reducing financial stability risks.

Lasting Legacies

Growth among emerging market and developing economies is expected to accelerate to 6% this year, helped by increased external demand and higher commodity prices. However, the recovery of many countries is constrained by resurgences of COVID-19, uneven vaccination, and a partial withdrawal of government economic support measures. Excluding China, growth is anticipated to unfold at a more modest 4.4% pace. In the longer term, the outlook for emerging market and developing economies will likely be dampened by the lasting legacies of the pandemic – erosion of skills from lost work and schooling; a sharp drop in investment; higher debt burdens; and greater financial vulnerabilities. Growth among this group of economies is forecast to moderate to 4.7% in 2022 as governments gradually withdraw policy support.

Among low-income economies, where vaccination has lagged, growth has been revised lower to 2.9%. Setting aside the contraction last year, this would be the slowest pace of expansion in two decades. The group’s output level in 2022 is projected to be 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic projections. Fragile and conflict-affected low-income economies have been the hardest hit by the pandemic, and per capita income gains have been set back by at least a decade.  

Regionally, the recovery is expected to be strongest in East Asia and the Pacific, largely due to the strength of China’s recovery. In South Asia, recovery has been hampered by serious renewed outbreaks of the virus in India and Nepal. The Middle East and North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to post growth too shallow to offset the contraction of 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery, while helped by spillovers from the global recovery, is expected to remain fragile given the slow pace of vaccination and delays to major investments in infrastructure and the extractives sector.  

Uncertain Outlook

The June forecast assumes that advanced economies will achieve widespread vaccination of their populations and effectively contain the pandemic by the end of the year. Major emerging market and developing economies are anticipated to substantially reduce new cases. However, the outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. A more persistent pandemic, a wave of corporate bankruptcies, financial stress, or even social unrest could derail the recovery. At the same time, more rapid success in stamping out COVID-19 and greater spillovers from advanced economy growth could generate more vigorous global growth.

Even so, the pandemic is expected to have caused serious setbacks to development gains. Although per capita income growth is projected to be 4.9% among emerging market and developing economies this year, it is forecast to be essentially flat in low-income countries. Per capita income lost in 2020 will not be fully recouped by 2022 in about two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies, including three-quarters of fragile and conflict-affected low-income countries. By the end of this year, about 100 million people are expected to have fallen back into extreme poverty. These adverse impacts have been felt hardest by the most vulnerable groups – women, children, and unskilled and informal workers.

Global inflation, which has increased along with the economic recovery, is anticipated to continue to rise over the rest of the year; however, it is expected to remain within the target range for most countries. In those emerging market and developing economies in which inflation rises above target, this trend may not warrant a monetary policy response provided it is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

Climbing Food Costs

Rising food prices and accelerating aggregate inflation may compound rising food insecurity in low-income countries. Policymakers should ensure that rising inflation rates do not lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and resist using subsidies or price controls to reduce the burden of rising food prices, as these risk adding to high debt and creating further upward pressure on global agricultural prices.

A recovery in global trade after the recession last year offers an opportunity for emerging market and developing economies to bolster economic growth. Trade costs are on average one-half higher among emerging market and developing economies than advanced economies and lowering them could boost trade and stimulate investment and growth.

With relief from the pandemic tantalizingly close in many places but far from reach in others, policy actions will be critical. Securing equitable vaccine distribution will be essential to ending the pandemic. Far-reaching debt relief will be important to many low-income countries. Policymakers will need to nurture the economic recovery with fiscal and monetary measures while keeping a close eye on safeguarding financial stability. Policies should take the long view, reinvigorating human capital, expanding access to digital connectivity, and investing in green infrastructure to bolster growth along a green, resilient, and inclusive path.  

It will take global coordination to end the pandemic through widespread vaccination and careful macroeconomic stewardship to avoid crises until we get there.  

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Social and economic impact of COVID-19

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Eduardo levy yeyati and eduardo levy yeyati former nonresident senior fellow - global economy and development federico filippini federico filippini visiting professor - universidad torcuato di tella.

June 8, 2021

Introduction

The impact of the pandemic on world GDP growth is massive. The COVID-19 global recession is the deepest since the end of World War II (Figure 1). The global economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 according to the April 2021 World Economic Outlook Report published by the IMF, a 7 percent loss relative to the 3.4 percent growth forecast back in October 2019. While virtually every country covered by the IMF posted negative growth in 2020 (IMF 2020b), the downturn was more pronounced in the poorest parts of the world (Noy et al. 2020) (Figure 2).

The impact of the shock is likely to be long-lasting. While the global economy is expected to recover this year, the level of GDP at the end of 2021 in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) is projected to remain below the pre-virus baseline (Figure 3). As with the immediate impact, the magnitude of the medium-term cost also varies significantly across countries, with EMDE suffering the greatest loss. The IMF (2021) projects that in 2024 the World GDP will be 3 percent (6 percent for low-income countries (LICs)) below the no-COVID scenario. Along the same lines, Djiofack et al. (2020) estimate that African GDP would be permanently 1 percent to 4 percent lower than in the pre-COVID outlook, depending on the duration of the crisis.  

The pandemic triggered a health and fiscal response unprecedented in terms of speed and magnitude. At a global scale, the fiscal support reached nearly $16 trillion (around 15 percent of global GDP) in 2020. However, the capacity of countries to implement such measures varied significantly. In this note, we identify three important preexisting conditions that amplified the impact of the shock:

• Fiscal space: The capacity to support household and firms largely depends on access to international financial markets,
• State capacity: Fast and efficient implementation of policies to support household and firms requires a substantial state capacity and well-developed tax and transfer infrastructure; and
• Labor market structure: A large share of informal workers facing significant frictions to adopt remote working, and high levels of poverty and inequality, deepen the deleterious impact of the crisis.

Additionally, the speed and the strength of the recovery will be crucially dependent on the capacity of the governments to acquire and roll out the COVID-19 vaccines.

This paper presents a succinct summary of the existing economic literature on the economic and fiscal impact of the pandemic, and a preliminary estimate of the associated economic cost. It documents the incidence of initial conditions (with a particular focus on the role of the labor market channel) on the transmission of the shock and the speed and extent of the expected recovery, summarizes how countries attempted to attenuate the economic consequences and the international financial institutions assisted countries, reports preliminary accounts of medium-term COVID-related losses, and concludes with some forward-looking considerations based on the lessons learned in 2020.

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The Global Economic Impacts of Covid-19

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Critical Questions by Stephanie Segal and Dylan Gerstel

Published March 10, 2020

Confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), which first appeared in China at the end of last year, now exceed 115,000 as of March 10 and are likely to climb significantly higher. While over two-thirds of the total confirmed cases are in mainland China, the vast majority of new cases reported since February 25 have occurred outside the country. What was initially seen as a largely China-centric shock is now understood to be a global crisis. The virus’s spread has regrettably borne out analysts’ downside scenarios, with investors digesting the implications of disrupted supply chains, official containment measures, and spillovers from the real economy to financial markets. A decision by two of the world’s largest energy producers to maintain current levels of production, despite falling energy prices, has further unnerved investors while questions about governments’ abilities to mount an effective and coordinated response linger. The increased uncertainty has led to financial market volatility last seen during the global financial crisis.

Q1: What will be the impact of Covid-19 on the economy?

A1: The extent of the damage will depend on how quickly the virus is contained, the steps authorities take to contain it, and how much economic support governments are willing to deploy during the epidemic’s immediate impact and aftermath.

Early indications of Covid-19’s impact on the Chinese economy are worse than initially forecast. Surveys of China’s manufacturing and services sector plunged to record lows in February, automobile sales sank a record 80 percent , and China’s exports fell 17.2 percent in January and February. The official data confirmed a widespread slowdown in economic activity foreshadowed in low pollution levels and depressed shipping traffic , among other informal barometers. Analysts have sharply revised down estimates of Chinese growth, with many now predicting a drop in first quarter GDP, the first contraction since China began reporting quarterly data in 1992. As Covid-19 spreads, China’s economic recovery will be challenged as demand from other countries drops as they cope with the virus.

Although the outbreak appears to have slowed in China, Covid-19 and its impacts have gone global. Infections are mounting in Europe, South Korea, Iran, the United States, and elsewhere, with authorities implementing increasingly restrictive measures to contain the virus. Europe and Japan are likely already in recession territory given their weak fourth quarter performance and high reliance on trade. While the United States entered the crisis with a tailwind , some analysts are forecasting a contraction in U.S. GDP in the second quarter. Estimates of the global impact vary: early last week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted that Covid-19 will lower global GDP growth by one-half a percentage point for 2020 (from 2.9 to 2.4 percent); Bloomberg Economics warns that full-year GDP growth could fall to zero in a worst-case pandemic scenario.

Q2: What sectors and economies are most vulnerable?

A2: The Covid-19 outbreak has generated both demand and supply shocks reverberating across the global economy. Among major economies outside of China, the OECD forecasts the largest downward growth revisions in countries deeply interconnected to China, especially South Korea, Australia, and Japan. Major European economies will experience dislocations as the virus spreads and countries adopt restrictive responses that curb manufacturing activity at regional hubs, including in Northern Italy. As a result of depressed activity, the United Nations projects that foreign direct investment flows could fall between 5 and 15 percent to their lowest levels since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

At the sectoral level, tourism and travel-related industries will be among the hardest hit as authorities encourage “social distancing” and consumers stay indoors. The International Air Transport Association warns that Covid-19 could cost global air carriers between $63 billion and $113 billion in revenue in 2020, and the international film market could lose over $5 billion in lower box office sales. Similarly, shares of major hotel companies have plummeted in the last few weeks, and entertainment giants like Disney expect a significant blow to revenues. Restaurants, sporting events , and other services will also face significant disruption. Industries less reliant on high social interaction, such as agriculture, will be comparatively less vulnerable but will still face challenges as demand wavers.

Q3: What’s the relationship between the economy and the energy sector?

A3: Economic slowdowns generally lead to lower energy demand, and the fallout from Covid-19 has proved no different . Often, producers respond to demand slumps by cutting supply to buoy prices. Last week, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a few other major oil producers met to discuss an additional cut of 1.5 million barrels per day through the end of June in response to the outbreak. When the agreement collapsed, Saudi Arabia cut prices and lifted output , ostensibly to harm Russia for refusing to agree to production cuts . Following the Saudi decision, Brent Crude fell more than 20 percent , the sharpest one-day drop since 1991, with analysts predicting further declines ahead. The damage from the Saudi-Russian price war sends an unsettling signal to markets hungry for a coordinated policy response to the epidemic, especially considering Saudi Arabia’s current role as G20 president.

In response to the price shock, large oil producers, including U.S. firms, could pare back investment and production, with heavily indebted firms in particular at risk of layoffs, consolidations, and even bankruptcy . Investors are well aware that energy companies account for more than 11 percent of the U.S. high yield (below investment grade) market, with rollovers nearly impossible under current market conditions. In theory, lower oil prices should help oil-importing countries, but depressed activity due to Covid-19 could limit that benefit. In addition, the boom in domestic U.S. energy production in recent years means the United States is exposed to price declines in a way not seen in previous economic downturns.

Q4: How does the economic slowdown impact financial markets?

A4: Fears of a broader outbreak and its economic impact spread to financial markets last month, and most international indices are nearing bear market territory (declining at least 20 percent from the 52-week high) as investors process the lower corporate earnings that will result from the virus. The S&P 500 fell 7 percent to open the March 9 session, triggering a “ circuit breaker ” that briefly suspended trading for the first time since 1997. Overall, the index is down about 17 percent from its record high on February 19. Amid the equity rout, investors have fled to safe haven assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to record low yields . Low yields translate into low borrowing costs for the U.S. government, but low interest rates may not benefit private companies or individuals (or even all sovereigns) who may find financial markets too risk adverse to extend credit in light of such uncertainty. The longer the virus spreads, the more economic and company performance will be impacted, raising concerns about debt sustainability, especially for highly indebted countries and companies, absent official support.

Q5: How have governments responded to cushion the economic fallout from the epidemic?

A5: Thus far, national governments have announced largely uncoordinated, country-specific responses to the virus. In China, the epicenter of the outbreak, officials announced billions in special-purpose loans to companies facing liquidity constraints as well as financial support to specific sectors such as aviation. In the United States, the Federal Reserve cut the policy rate in an emergency action on March 3, and on March 9, in coordination with other U.S. bank regulators, it encouraged financial institutions to “meet the financial needs of customers and members affected by the coronavirus,” a move aimed at supporting financial conditions to prevent the growth shock from turning into a broader financial crisis. On March 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York also announced expanded overnight repurchase operations by $50 billion to avoid a deeper credit crunch.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to take action when their monetary policy committees meet later this month. On the fiscal front, President Trump previewed his administration’s plans to seek a payroll tax cut and assistance for impacted hourly workers and industries. Countries announcing fiscal measures just this month include Japan ($9.6 billion, or 0.19 percent of GDP), South Korea ($9.2 billion, 0.56 percent of GDP), and Italy ($4.1 billion, 0.20 percent of GDP). The adequacy of such spending will depend on the virus’s path as well as the effectiveness of other measures to contain negative spillovers from the growth shock.

In terms of coordinated action, on March 6, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors pledged to take “appropriate” fiscal and monetary measures but made no specific commitments. On a March 3 phone call , G7 finance ministers reaffirmed their “commitment to use all policy tools” but did not outline specific steps. For their part, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank last week announced the availability of $50 billion and $12 billion in financing, respectively, to support low income and emerging market economies’ responses to the virus.

Scientists do not yet have a clear understanding of the virus’s behavior, transmission rate, and the full extent of contagion; uncertainty will be part of the backdrop for the foreseeable future. Coherent, coordinated, and credible policy responses provide the best chance at limiting the economic fallout from what is already and sadly a human tragedy.

Stephanie Segal is a senior fellow with the Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Dylan Gerstel is a research assistant with the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy.

Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

Stephanie Segal

Dylan Gerstel

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America’s Inflation Fight Is Ending, but It’s Leaving a Legacy

As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve cuts rates, an era of economic upheaval is coming to a close, but not without lingering marks.

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By Jeanna Smialek

Jeanna Smialek is an economics journalist who reported this story from Washington.

People with jobs have started showing up at homeless shelters in Atlanta. Families who can’t cover their grocery bills are pushing up demand at a Boston food bank. A dearth of available houses is plaguing Sacramento. Yet reports of recent raises abound, and a partly retired homeowner near Pittsburgh is happy about his savings.

America’s bout of painfully high inflation — and the period of high interest rates meant to cure it — is finally drawing toward a close. Price increases are nearly back to a normal pace, so much so that the Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to lower borrowing costs for the first time in more than four years.

But even as the nation’s tumultuous pandemic economic era begins to approach its end, the period is destined to leave lingering marks.

There are many things to celebrate about the current moment. Inflation has so far cooled without a major economic pullback, a development few economists thought possible. Consumers are still spending at a solid clip. Years of strong job growth and solid wage gains have lifted up many workers, and a run-up in stock prices is padding retirement accounts.

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Grocery Inflation Jumped, Then Cooled

Grocery inflation was even more rapid than overall price increases in 2022, though it has recently calmed notably.

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