financial projections in business plan

• Business Planning

Business Plan Financial Projections

Written by Dave Lavinsky

Financial projections are forecasted analyses of your business’ future that include income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements. We have found them to be an crucial part of your business plan for the following reasons:

• They can help prove or disprove the viability of your business idea. For example, if your initial projections show your company will never make a sizable profit, your venture might not be feasible. Or, in such a case, you might figure out ways to raise prices, enter new markets, or streamline operations to make it profitable. 
• Financial projections give investors and lenders an idea of how well your business is likely to do in the future. They can give lenders the confidence that you’ll be able to comfortably repay their loan with interest. And for equity investors, your projections can give them faith that you’ll earn them a solid return on investment. In both cases, your projections can help you secure the funding you need to launch or grow your business.
• Financial projections help you track your progress over time and ensure your business is on track to meet its goals. For example, if your financial projections show you should generate $500,000 in sales during the year, but you are not on track to accomplish that, you’ll know you need to take corrective action to achieve your goal.

Below you’ll learn more about the key components of financial projections and how to complete and include them in your business plan.

What Are Business Plan Financial Projections?

Financial projections are an estimate of your company’s future financial performance through financial forecasting. They are typically used by businesses to secure funding, but can also be useful for internal decision-making and planning purposes. There are three main financial statements that you will need to include in your business plan financial projections:

1. Income Statement Projection

The income statement projection is a forecast of your company’s future revenues and expenses. It should include line items for each type of income and expense, as well as a total at the end.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your projection:

• Revenue: Your revenue projection should break down your expected sales by product or service, as well as by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Expenses: Your expense projection should include a breakdown of your expected costs by category, such as marketing, salaries, and rent. Again, it is important to be realistic in your estimates.
• Net Income: The net income projection is the difference between your revenue and expenses. This number tells you how much profit your company is expected to make.

Sample Income Statement

2. cash flow statement & projection.

The cash flow statement and projection are a forecast of your company’s future cash inflows and outflows. It is important to include a cash flow projection in your business plan, as it will give investors and lenders an idea of your company’s ability to generate cash.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your cash flow projection:

• The cash flow statement shows a breakdown of your expected cash inflows and outflows by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Cash inflows should include items such as sales revenue, interest income, and capital gains. Cash outflows should include items such as salaries, rent, and marketing expenses.
• It is important to track your company’s cash flow over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy cash flow is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Cash Flow Statements

3. balance sheet projection.

The balance sheet projection is a forecast of your company’s future financial position. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

A projection should include a breakdown of your company’s assets and liabilities by category. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.

It is important to track your company’s financial position over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy balance is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Balance Sheet

How to create financial projections.

Creating financial projections for your business plan can be a daunting task, but it’s important to put together accurate and realistic financial projections in order to give your business the best chance for success.  

Cost Assumptions

When you create financial projections, it is important to be realistic about the costs your business will incur, using historical financial data can help with this. You will need to make assumptions about the cost of goods sold, operational costs, and capital expenditures.

It is important to track your company’s expenses over time to ensure that it is staying within its budget. A healthy bottom line is necessary for a successful business.

Capital Expenditures, Funding, Tax, and Balance Sheet Items

You will also need to make assumptions about capital expenditures, funding, tax, and balance sheet items. These assumptions will help you to create a realistic financial picture of your business.

Capital Expenditures

When projecting your company’s capital expenditures, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type of equipment or property your business will purchase. You will also need to estimate the cost of the purchase.

When projecting your company’s funding needs, you will need to make a number of assumptions about where the money will come from. This might include assumptions about bank loans, venture capital, or angel investors.

When projecting your company’s tax liability, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the tax rates that will apply to your business. You will also need to estimate the amount of taxes your company will owe.

Balance Sheet Items

When projecting your company’s balance, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type and amount of debt your business will have. You will also need to estimate the value of your company’s assets and liabilities.

Financial Projection Scenarios

Write two financial scenarios when creating your financial projections, a best-case scenario, and a worst-case scenario. Use your list of assumptions to come up with realistic numbers for each scenario.

Presuming that you have already generated a list of assumptions, the creation of best and worst-case scenarios should be relatively simple. For each assumption, generate a high and low estimate. For example, if you are assuming that your company will have $100,000 in revenue, your high estimate might be $120,000 and your low estimate might be $80,000.

Once you have generated high and low estimates for all of your assumptions, you can create two scenarios: a best case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Simply plug the high estimates into your financial projections for the best-case scenario and the low estimates into your financial projections for the worst-case scenario.

Conduct a Ratio Analysis

A ratio analysis is a useful tool that can be used to evaluate a company’s financial health. Ratios can be used to compare a company’s performance to its industry average or to its own historical performance.

There are a number of different ratios that can be used in ratio analysis. Some of the more popular ones include the following:

• Gross margin ratio
• Operating margin ratio
• Return on assets (ROA)
• Return on equity (ROE)

To conduct a ratio analysis, you will need financial statements for your company and for its competitors. You will also need industry average ratios. These can be found in industry reports or on financial websites.

Once you have the necessary information, you can calculate the ratios for your company and compare them to the industry averages or to your own historical performance. If your company’s ratios are significantly different from the industry averages, it might be indicative of a problem.

Be Realistic

When creating your financial projections, it is important to be realistic. Your projections should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future financial performance will be. This includes projected operating income, a projected income statement, and a profit and loss statement.

Your goal should be to create a realistic set of financial projections that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Sales Forecast

One of the most important aspects of your financial projections is your sales forecast. Your sales forecast should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future sales will be.

Your sales forecast should be realistic and achievable. Do not try to “game” the system by creating an overly optimistic or pessimistic forecast. Your goal should be to create a realistic sales forecast that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Creating a sales forecast is not an exact science, but there are a number of methods that can be used to generate realistic estimates. Some common methods include market analysis, competitor analysis, and customer surveys.

Create Multi-Year Financial Projections

When creating financial projections, it is important to generate projections for multiple years. This will give you a better sense of how your company’s financial performance is likely to change over time.

It is also important to remember that your financial projections are just that: projections. They are based on a number of assumptions and are not guaranteed to be accurate. As such, you should review and update your projections on a regular basis to ensure that they remain relevant.

Creating financial projections is an important part of any business plan. However, it’s important to remember that these projections are just estimates. They are not guarantees of future success.

Business Plan Financial Projections FAQs

What is a business plan financial projection.

A business plan financial projection is a forecast of your company's future financial performance. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

What are annual income statements? 

The Annual income statement is a financial document and a financial model that summarize a company's revenues and expenses over the course of a fiscal year. They provide a snapshot of a company's financial health and performance and can be used to track trends and make comparisons with other businesses.

What are the necessary financial statements?

The necessary financial statements for a business plan are an income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet.

How do I create financial projections?

You can create financial projections by making a list of assumptions, creating two scenarios (best case and worst case), conducting a ratio analysis, and being realistic.

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• Building Your Business

How To Create Financial Projections for Your Business

Learn how to anticipate your business’s financial performance

• Understanding Financial Projections & Forecasting

Why Forecasting Is Critical for Your Business

Key financial statements for forecasting, how to create your financial projections, frequently asked questions (faqs).

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Just like a weather forecast lets you know that wearing closed-toe shoes will be important for that afternoon downpour later, a good financial forecast allows you to better anticipate financial highs and lows for your business.

Neglecting to compile financial projections for your business may signal to investors that you’re unprepared for the future, which may cause you to lose out on funding opportunities.

Read on to learn more about financial projections, how to compile and use them in a business plan, and why they can be crucial for every business owner.

Key Takeaways

• Financial forecasting is a projection of your business's future revenues and expenses based on comparative data analysis, industry research, and more.
• Financial projections are a valuable tool for entrepreneurs as they offer insight into a business's ability to generate profit, increase cash flow, and repay debts, which can be attractive to investors.
• Some of the key components to include in a financial projection include a sales projection, break-even analysis, and pro forma balance sheet and income statement.
• A financial projection can not only attract investors, but helps business owners anticipate fixed costs, find a break-even point, and prepare for the unexpected.

Understanding Financial Projections and Forecasting

Financial forecasting is an educated estimate of future revenues and expenses that involves comparative analysis to get a snapshot of what could happen in your business’s future.

This process helps in making predictions about future business performance based on current financial information, industry trends, and economic conditions. Financial forecasting also helps businesses make decisions about investments, financing sources, inventory management, cost control strategies, and even whether to move into another market.

Developing both short- and mid-term projections is usually necessary to help you determine immediate production and personnel needs as well as future resource requirements for raw materials, equipment, and machinery.

Financial projections are a valuable tool for entrepreneurs as they offer insight into a business's ability to generate profit, increase cash flow, and repay debts. They can also be used to make informed decisions about the business’s plans. Creating an accurate, adaptive financial projection for your business offers many benefits, including:

• Attracting investors and convincing them to fund your business
• Anticipating problems before they arise
• Visualizing your small-business objectives and budgets
• Demonstrating how you will repay small-business loans
• Planning for more significant business expenses
• Showing business growth potential
• Helping with proper pricing and production planning

Financial forecasting is essentially predicting the revenue and expenses for a business venture. Whether your business is new or established, forecasting can play a vital role in helping you plan for the future and budget your funds.

Creating financial projections may be a necessary exercise for many businesses, particularly those that do not have sufficient cash flow or need to rely on customer credit to maintain operations. Compiling financial information, knowing your market, and understanding what your potential investors are looking for can enable you to make intelligent decisions about your assets and resources.

The income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flow are three key financial reports needed for forecasting that can also provide analysts with crucial information about a business's financial health. Here is a closer look at each.

Income Statement

An income statement, also known as a profit and loss statement or P&L, is a financial document that provides an overview of an organization's revenues, expenses, and net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a snapshot of the business's assets and liabilities at a certain point in time. Sometimes referred to as the “financial portrait” of a business, the balance sheet provides an overview of how much money the business has, what it owes, and its net worth.

The assets side of the balance sheet includes what the business owns as well as future ownership items. The other side of the sheet includes liabilities and equity, which represent what it owes or what others owe to the business.

A balance sheet that shows hypothetical calculations and future financial projections is also referred to as a “pro forma” balance sheet.

Cash Flow Statement

A cash flow statement monitors the business’s inflows and outflows—both cash and non-cash. Cash flow is the business’s projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ( EBITDA ) minus capital investments.

Here's how to compile your financial projections and fit the results into the three above statements.

A financial projections spreadsheet for your business should include these metrics and figures:

• Sales forecast
• Balance sheet
• Operating expenses
• Payroll expenses (if applicable)
• Amortization and depreciation
• Cash flow statement
• Income statement
• Cost of goods sold (COGS)
• Break-even analysis

Here are key steps to account for creating your financial projections.

Projecting Sales

The first step for a financial forecast starts with projecting your business’s sales, which are typically derived from past revenue as well as industry research. These projections allow businesses to understand what their risks are and how much they will need in terms of staffing, resources, and funding.

Sales forecasts also enable businesses to decide on important levels such as product variety, price points, and inventory capacity.

Income Statement Calculations

A projected income statement shows how much you expect in revenue and profit—as well as your estimated expenses and losses—over a specific time in the future. Like a standard income statement, elements on a projection include revenue, COGS, and expenses that you’ll calculate to determine figures such as the business’s gross profit margin and net income.

If you’re developing a hypothetical, or pro forma, income statement, you can use historical data from previous years’ income statements. You can also do a comparative analysis of two different income statement periods to come up with your figures.

Anticipate Fixed Costs

Fixed business costs are expenses that do not change based on the number of products sold. The best way to anticipate fixed business costs is to research your industry and prepare a budget using actual numbers from competitors in the industry. Anticipating fixed costs ensures your business doesn’t overpay for its needs and balances out its variable costs. A few examples of fixed business costs include:

• Rent or mortgage payments
• Operating expenses (also called selling, general and administrative expenses or SG&A)
• Utility bills
• Insurance premiums

Unfortunately, it might not be possible to predict accurately how much your fixed costs will change in a year due to variables such as inflation, property, and interest rates. It’s best to slightly overestimate fixed costs just in case you need to account for these potential fluctuations.

Find Your Break-Even Point

The break-even point (BEP) is the number at which a business has the same expenses as its revenue. In other words, it occurs when your operations generate enough revenue to cover all of your business’s costs and expenses. The BEP will differ depending on the type of business, market conditions, and other factors.

To find this number, you need to determine two things: your fixed costs and variable costs. Once you have these figures, you can find your BEP using this formula:

Break-even point = fixed expenses ➗ 1 – (variable expenses ➗ sales)

The BEP is an essential consideration for any projection because it is the point at which total revenue from a project equals total cost. This makes it the point of either profit or loss.

Plan for the Unexpected

It is necessary to have the proper financial safeguards in place to prepare for any unanticipated costs. A sudden vehicle repair, a leaky roof, or broken equipment can quickly derail your budget if you aren't prepared. Cash management is a financial management plan that ensures a business has enough cash on hand to maintain operations and meet short-term obligations.

To maintain cash reserves, you can apply for overdraft protection or an overdraft line of credit. Overdraft protection can be set up by a bank or credit card business and provides short-term loans if the account balance falls below zero. On the other hand, a line of credit is an agreement with a lending institution in which they provide you with an unsecured loan at any time until your balance reaches zero again.

How do you make financial projections for startups?

Financial projections for startups can be hard to complete. Historical financial data may not be available. Find someone with financial projections experience to give insight on risks and outcomes.

Consider business forecasting, too, which incorporates assumptions about the exponential growth of your business.

Startups can also benefit from using EBITDA to get a better look at potential cash flow.

What are the benefits associated with forecasting business finances?

Forecasting can be beneficial for businesses in many ways, including:

• Providing better understanding of your business cash flow
• Easing the process of planning and budgeting for the future based on income
• Improving decision-making
• Providing valuable insight into what's in their future
• Making decisions on how to best allocate resources for success

How many years should your financial forecast be?

Your financial forecast should either be projected over a specific time period or projected into perpetuity. There are various methods for determining how long a financial forecasting projection should go out, but many businesses use one to five years as a standard timeframe.

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How to Create Financial Projections for Your Business Plan

Written by Dave Lavinsky

Financial projections, also known as financial models, are forecasts of your company’s expected financial performance, typically over the next 5 years.

Over the past 25+ years, we’ve created financial projections for thousands of startups and existing businesses. In doing so, we’ve found 3 key reasons why financial projections are important:

• They help you determine the viability of your new business ideas and/or your need to make modifications to them. For instance, if your initial financial projections show your business idea isn’t profitable, you’ll know that changes are needed (e.g., raising prices, serving new markets, figuring out how to reduce costs, etc.) to make it viable.
• They are crucial for raising funding. Lenders will always review your financial projections to ensure you can comfortably repay any business loans they issue you. Equity investors will nearly always review your projections in determining whether they can achieve their desired return on their investment in your business.
• They help keep your business financially on track by giving you goals. For instance, if your financial projections state your company should generate 100 new clients this year, and the year is halfway done and you’re only at 30 clients, you’ll know you need to readjust your strategy to achieve your goals.

In the remainder of this article, you’ll learn more about financial projections, how to complete them, and how to incorporate them in your business plan.

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What are Financial Projections?

Financial projections are financial forecasts or estimations of your company’s future revenues and expenses, serving as a crucial part of business planning. To complete them you must develop multiple assumptions with regards to items like future sales volumes, employee headcount and the cost of supplies and other expenses. Creating financial projections helps you develop better strategies to grow your business.

Your financial projections will be the most analyzed part of your business plan by investors and/or banks. While never a precise prediction of future performance, an excellent financial model outlines the core assumptions of your business and helps you and others evaluate capital requirements, risks involved, and rewards that successful execution will deliver.

Having a solid framework in place also will help you compare your performance to the financial projections and evaluate how your business is progressing. If your performance is behind your projections, you will have a framework in place to assess the effects of lowering costs, increasing prices, or even reimagining your model. In the happy case that you exceed your business projections, you can use your framework to plan for accelerated growth, new hires, or additional expansion investments.

Hence, the use of accurate financial projections is multi-fold and crucial for the success of any business. Your financial projections should include three core financial statements – the income statement, the cash flow statement, and the balance sheet. The following section explains each statement in detail.

Necessary Financial Statements

The three financial statements are the income statement, the cash flow statement, and the balance sheet. You will learn how to create each one in detail below.  

Income Statement Projection

The projected income statement is also referred to as a profit and loss statement and showcases your business’s revenues and expenses for a specific period.

To create an income statement, you first will need to chart out a sales forecast by taking realistic estimates of units sold and multiplying them by price per unit to arrive at a total sales number. Then, estimate the cost of these units and multiply them by the number of units to get the cost of sales. Finally, calculate your gross margin by subtracting the cost of sales from your sales.

Once you have calculated your gross margin, deduct items like wages, rent, marketing costs, and other expenses that you plan to pay to facilitate your business’s operations. The resulting total represents your projected operating income, which is a critical business metric.

Plan to create an income statement monthly until your projected break-even, or the point at which future revenues outpace total expenses, and you reflect operating profit. From there, annual income statements will suffice.

Sample Income Statement

Consider a sample income statement for a retail store below:

Cash Flow Projection

As the name indicates, a cash flow statement shows the cash flowing in and out of your business. The cash flow statement incorporates cash from business operations and includes cash inflows and outflows from investment and financing activities to deliver a holistic cash picture of your company.

Investment activities include purchasing land or equipment or research & development activities that aren’t necessarily part of daily operations. Cash movements due to financing activities include cash flowing in a business through investors and/or banks and cash flowing out due to debt repayment or distributions made to shareholders.

You should total all these three components of a cash flow projection for any specified period to arrive at a total ending cash balance. Constructing solid cash flow projections will ensure you anticipate capital needs to carry the business to a place of sustainable operations.

Sample Cash Flow Statement

Below is a simple cash flow statement for the same retail store:

Balance Sheet Projections

A balance sheet shows your company’s assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity for a certain period and provides a snapshot in time of your business performance. Assets include things of value that the business owns, such as inventory, capital, and land. Liabilities, on the other hand, are legally bound commitments like payables for goods or services rendered and debt. Finally, owner’s equity refers to the amount that is remaining once liabilities are paid off. Assets must total – or balance – liabilities and equity.

Your startup financial documents should include annual balance sheets that show the changing balance of assets, liabilities, and equity as the business progresses. Ideally, that progression shows a reduction in liabilities and an increase in equity over time.

While constructing these varied business projections, remember to be flexible. You likely will need to go back and forth between the different financial statements since working on one will necessitate changes to the others.

Sample Balance Sheet

Below is a simple balance sheet for the retail store:

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How to Create Financial Projections

When it comes to financial forecasting, simplicity is key. Making financial projections does not have to be overly sophisticated and complicated to impress, and convoluted projections likely will have the opposite effect on potential investors. Keep your tables and graphs simple and fill them with credible or historical data that inspires confidence in your plan and vision. The below tips will help bolster your financial projections.    

Create a List of Assumptions

Your financial projections should be tied to a list of assumptions. For example, one assumption will be the initial monthly cash sales you achieve. Another assumption will be your monthly growth rate. As you can imagine, changing either of these assumptions will significantly impact your financial projections.

As a result, tie your income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statements to your assumptions. That way, if you change your assumptions, all of your financial projections automatically update.

Below are the key assumptions to include in your financial model:

For EACH essential product or service you offer:

• What is the number of units you expect to sell each month?
• What is your expected monthly sales growth rate?
• What is the average price that you will charge per product or service unit sold?
• How much do you expect to raise your prices each year?
• How much does it cost you to produce or deliver each unit sold?
• How much (if at all) do you expect your direct product costs to grow each year?

For EACH subscription/membership, you offer:

• What is the monthly/quarterly/annual price of your membership?
• How many members do you have now, or how many members do you expect to gain in the first month/quarter/year?
• What is your projected monthly/quarterly/annual growth rate in the number of members?
• What is your projected monthly/quarterly/annual member churn (the percentage of members that will cancel each month/quarter/year)?
• What is the average monthly/quarterly/annual direct cost to serve each member (if applicable)?

Cost Assumptions

• What is your monthly salary? What is the annual growth rate in your salary?
• What is your monthly salary for the rest of your team? What is the expected annual growth rate in your team’s salaries?
• What is your initial monthly marketing expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your marketing expense?
• What is your initial monthly rent + utility expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your rent + utility expense?
• What is your initial monthly insurance expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your insurance expense?
• What is your initial monthly office supplies expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your office supplies expense?
• What is your initial monthly cost for “other” expenses? What is the expected annual growth rate in your “other” expenses?

Capital Expenditures, Funding, Tax, and Balance Sheet Items

• How much money do you need for Capital Expenditures in your first year  (to buy computers, desks, equipment, space build-out, etc.)?
• How much other funding do you need right now?
• What percent of the funding will be financed by Debt (versus equity)?
• What Corporate Tax Rate would you like to apply to company profits?
• What is your Current Liabilities Turnover (in the number of days)?
• What are your Current Assets, excluding cash (in the number of days)?
• What is your Depreciation rate?
• What is your Amortization number of Years?
• What is the number of years in which your debt (loan) must be paid back?
• What is your Debt Payback interest rate?

Create Two Financial Projection Scenarios

It would be best if you used your assumptions to create two sets of clear financial projections that exhibit two very different scenarios. One is your best-case scenario, and the other is your worst-case. Investors are usually very interested in how a business plan will play out in both these scenarios, allowing them to better analyze the robustness and potential profitability of a business.    

Conduct a Ratio Analysis

Gain an understanding of average industry financial ratios, including operating ratios, profitability ratios, return on investment ratios, and the like. You can then compare your own estimates with these existing ratios to evaluate costs you may have overlooked or find historical financial data to support your projected performance. This ratio analysis helps ensure your financial projections are neither excessively optimistic nor excessively pessimistic.  

Be Realistic

It is easy to get carried away when dealing with estimates and you end up with very optimistic financial projections that will feel untenable to an objective audience. Investors are quick to notice and question inflated figures. Rather than excite investors, such scenarios will compromise your legitimacy.  

Create Multi-Year Financial Projections

The first year of your financial projections should be presented on a granular, monthly basis. For subsequent years, annual projections will suffice. It is advised to have three- or five-year projections ready when you start attracting investors. Since your plan needs to be succinct, you can add yearly projections as appendices to your main plan.

You should now know how to create financial projections for your business plan. In addition to creating your full projections as their own document, you will need to insert your financial projections into your plan. In your executive summary, Insert your topline projections, that is, just your sales, gross margins, recurring expenses, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), and net income). In the financial plan section of your plan, insert your key assumptions and a little more detail than your topline projections. Include your full financial model in the appendix of your plan.

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Financial projections are not just a component of your business plan; they are the beating heart of strategic thinking and analysis in both startups and established businesses. These projections serve as a vital tool for setting targets, assessing key results, and understanding the reasons behind meeting or not meeting these targets. They enable businesses to recalibrate their strategies effectively, ensuring agility and responsiveness to market dynamics.

Essential for Diverse Business Needs

Apart from their critical role in internal analysis and strategy setting, financial projections are indispensable for a variety of external purposes:

• Raising Capital:  Whether you’re a startup aiming for seed funding or an established business seeking expansion capital, clear and well-structured financial projections can significantly increase your chances of securing investment .
• Regulatory and Legal Compliance:  Specific employment and investment visas, licensing, certification, and accreditation processes often require detailed financial projections to demonstrate the viability and potential of your business.
• Understanding Audiences:  Depending on the audience—whether investors, regulatory bodies, or partners—the nature and detail of the financial projections can vary. Our “Understanding Audiences” page provides in-depth insights into tailoring your projections for different stakeholders.

Versatility in Application

Financial projections can be a standalone document or part of a comprehensive business plan. Their structure and emphasis may vary based on the business’s objectives:

• Debt Financing:  For new businesses seeking loans , financial projections within a business plan help in demonstrating the capacity to repay the loan.
• Equity-Based Financing:  For businesses in stages like pre-seed, seed , or series A funding, standalone financial projections are crucial. They provide clarity on startup requirements, burn-rate , and runway , which are key factors investors evaluate.

Foundations of Effective Financial Projections

Crafting impactful financial projections is a detailed and systematic process, grounded in deep research and thorough data collection. To create a robust foundation for these projections, two distinct approaches are recommended, each suited to different types of businesses and their unique needs:

• Ideal for New and Innovative Ventures:  The Pre-Planning Process , detailed under Core Cost Analysis and Startup & Operational Costs in the “Get Started” section of Businessplan.com, is particularly beneficial for businesses that are in their nascent stages or are pioneering new markets.
• First-Movers and Fast-Followers:  For ventures that aim to be first-movers or fast-followers in emerging industries, this comprehensive approach is crucial to understand the uncharted market dynamics.
• Startups Eyeing Investment Capital:  Additionally, startups that plan to seek investment capital will find this process instrumental in laying a solid groundwork for their financial projections, giving potential investors a clear view of the business’s potential.
• Tailored for Established Industries:  Businesses operating within well-established industries, where market dynamics are relatively known and stable, will benefit significantly from using a Model-Based Planning® Worksheet .
• Focus on Speed and Efficiency:  This approach is designed for ventures where rapid planning and execution are prioritized. It provides a streamlined, industry-specific framework that accelerates the planning process.
• Customized to Specific Business Models:  The Worksheet is customized for a wide range of business models and industries, ensuring that the financial projections are relevant and aligned with industry standards and expectations.

By choosing the approach that best aligns with your business’s stage, industry, and goals, you can ensure that your financial projections are not only realistic and well-informed but also highly effective in guiding your business towards success.

Key Sections of Financial Projections

Key assumptions.

In financial planning for businesses, especially startups, the creation of key assumptions is critical. These assumptions form the backbone of your financial projections, influencing every aspect from revenue forecasting to cost management. Their accuracy and realism are crucial for developing a financial model that truly reflects the potential of your business.

The Role of Key Assumptions

Key assumptions serve multiple purposes:

• Simplifying Complexity : By categorizing diverse products or services into manageable units, Key Assumptions help in creating a more readable and practical financial model .
• Guiding Strategic Decisions:  These assumptions are instrumental in shaping business strategies, from marketing to product development.
• Facilitating Communication:  Clear and concise assumptions make your financial projections more understandable to stakeholders, including investors and team members.

Creating Effective Key Assumptions

To craft meaningful and effective Key Assumptions, consider the following steps:

• Understand Your Business Model:  Grasp the intricacies of your business, including product/service offerings, customer behavior, and market trends.
• Use Averages and Ratios:  Simplify complex product lines or service offerings into average sales figures or ratios.
• Research and Validate:  Ground your assumptions in market research or historical data, ensuring they are realistic and defendable.
• Think Creatively and Contextually:  Tailor your assumptions to the unique context of your business, avoiding one-size-fits-all templates.

Personnel Plan

A comprehensive personnel plan is an essential component of your business’s financial projections. It not only outlines the staffing requirements but also encapsulates the associated costs, playing a significant role in the overall financial health of your enterprise.

Part 1: Personnel Forecast

The Personnel Forecast is a detailed table that includes the following elements:

• Specific Roles/Positions:  Identify the various roles and positions needed within your company. This could range from managerial positions to operational staff.
• Average Salary or Hourly Rate:  For each position, determine the average salary or hourly wage. This should be based on industry standards, regional salary averages, and the level of expertise required.
• Headcount:  Specify the number of individuals needed for each role. This will depend on the scale of your operations and business needs.
• Total Payroll per Position:  Calculate the total payroll for each position by multiplying the average salary or hourly rate by the headcount.
• Total Payroll:  Summarize the total payroll expenses, combining the costs from all positions.

Part 2: Personnel-Related Notes for Other Financial Tables

In addition to the Personnel Forecast, certain personnel-related expenses will be input into other financial tables:

• Pre-Launch Training:  Costs associated with training employees before the business launch should be included in the ‘ Sources & Uses of Funds ‘ under ‘Startup Expenses’.
• Ongoing or Post-Launch Training:  Regular training or development costs incurred after the launch should be accounted for in the ‘Expenses’ section of the Pro Forma Profit & Loss statement.
• Total Benefits:  Include costs related to sick leave, vacation, 401K match, health insurance, etc., in the Pro Forma Profit & Loss statement. These benefits form a significant part of employee compensation and affect the overall financial planning.
• Payroll Taxes:  Calculate and include payroll taxes based on state and federal rates in the Pro Forma Profit & Loss statement. These taxes are a mandatory financial obligation and an integral part of payroll expenses.

Projecting Revenue

Projecting revenue is one of the most challenging aspects of business planning, primarily due to the uncertainties inherent in predicting future market behavior. However, strategic tools like Total Addressable Market (TAM) , Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) can significantly aid in this process.

Understanding TAM, SAM, and SOM

• Total Addressable Market (TAM):  TAM refers to the total market demand for a product or service. It’s the maximum revenue opportunity available for a product or service, assuming 100% market share.
• S erviceable Available Market (SAM):  SAM is the segment of the TAM targeted by your products and services that is within your geographical reach. It’s more realistic than TAM as it considers the market that is actually serviceable.
• Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM):  SOM, the most immediate and practical measure, is the portion of SAM that you can capture. It considers factors like competition, your unique value proposition, pricing strategy, and operational capacity. SOM is what you realistically aim to achieve in the short to medium term.

Utilizing Industry Reports for Revenue Projection

Industry reports, like those from IBISWorld , are invaluable in this process. They provide detailed insights, including a section on Cost Structure which outlines the average percentage of revenue spent on various expenses in your industry. Here’s how you can use this data:

• Estimate Revenue Based on Personnel Costs:  Given the detailed personnel plan you have, use the “Wages” percentage from the IBISWorld report. By dividing your total annual personnel costs by this percentage, you get an estimate of the annual revenue required to support your staff.
• Refine with SOM:  This initial estimate is a starting point. Refine it by applying the SOM concept. Assess how your company’s unique factors — like your value proposition , competitive landscape, and sales capacity — will influence your achievable market share. For example, if the SAM for your product is $100 million and you estimate that you can realistically capture 5% of this market based on your unique factors, your SOM would be $5 million.

While no method guarantees perfect revenue projections, using TAM, SAM, and SOM provides a structured approach to estimate potential sales. Industry reports like those from IBISWorld further refine these projections by grounding them in real-world data, making them more realistic and achievable. Always remember, these are estimates meant to guide planning and strategy, and they should be regularly reviewed and adjusted as your business grows and market conditions evolve.

Pro Forma Profit & Loss Statement

A Pro Forma Profit & Loss (P&L) Statement is a crucial financial document that projects your business’s revenues and expenses over a specific period. While industry reports like those from IBISWorld offer a high-level view of common expenses, creating a detailed and realistic P&L statement requires a deeper dive into your unique fixed and variable costs .

Utilizing Industry Reports with Caution

Industry reports provide average percentages for various cost categories such as marketing, depreciation, profit, rent, utilities, wages, and others. However, it’s vital to remember that these figures are averages derived from a wide range of companies. Your specific costs may differ significantly based on your business model, location, and operational strategy.

Steps to Develop a Pro Forma P&L Statement

• Rent:  Engage in preliminary discussions with landlords or commercial brokers to ascertain expected rent costs. Location and space requirements will significantly impact this expense.
• Marketing and Promotion:  Detail the components of your marketing, promotional, sales, and customer service strategies. Refer to the ‘ Strategy & Implementation ‘ section on Businessplan.com for guidance. Assess the costs associated with each element, considering both traditional and digital marketing channels.
• Operational Costs:  Identify and quantify your fixed and variable operational costs. Fixed costs might include utilities, insurance, and salaries, while variable costs could be tied to production levels, such as raw materials and shipping.
• Utilize your revenue projections (based on TAM, SAM, and SOM analyses) to estimate sales.
• List and quantify all anticipated expenses, separating them into fixed and variable categories. This is a good time to thoroughly review the Key Activities, Key Resources, and Key Partners in your business model.
• Gross Profit:  Subtract the cost of goods sold (COGS) from your total revenue.
• Net Profit:  Deduct all operational expenses, including fixed and variable costs, from the gross profit.
• Account for depreciation of assets and any applicable taxes to determine the final net profit.

A detailed Pro Forma P&L statement is a vital tool for any business. While industry reports offer a starting point, the specificity and accuracy of your projections will come from a deep understanding of your unique business costs and revenue potential. Regularly revisiting and updating this document is key to maintaining its relevance and usefulness as your business evolves.

Projected Cash Flow

A projected cash flow statement is an essential financial tool that helps map out the flow of cash in and out of your business. It’s a forecast of your company’s cash income and expenditures over a specific period and is crucial for managing liquidity and ensuring financial stability.

Creating a Cash Flow Projection

Estimate Cash Inflows:  Include all sources of income, such as sales revenue, investment income, and any other cash receipts. Consider the timing of these inflows, as delays in payment can significantly affect your cash flow.

Estimate Cash Outflows:  List all expected cash payments, including operating expenses, loan repayments, purchases of assets, and other expenditures. Timing is crucial here as well, particularly for seasonal businesses or those with irregular payment cycles.

Project Net Cash Flow:  Calculate the net cash flow for each period (monthly, quarterly, etc.) by subtracting cash outflows from cash inflows. This gives you a clear picture of when and where cash shortages or surpluses might occur.

Include Opening and Closing Balances:  Start with your opening cash balance (beginning of the period). Add the net cash flow to this opening balance to arrive at the closing balance (end of the period).

Projected Balance Sheet

The projected balance sheet is a financial statement that provides a snapshot of your company’s financial position at a future date. It includes assets , liabilities , and owner’s equity , projecting how these elements will change over time.

Preparing a Projected Balance Sheet

• Current Assets:  Include cash, accounts receivable , inventory , and other assets that are expected to be converted to cash within a year.
• Long-term Assets:  Include property, plant, equipment, and other assets that provide value over a longer period.
• Current Liabilities:  These are obligations due within a year, like accounts payable, short-term loans, and accrued expenses.
• Long-term Liabilities:  Include long-term debts, lease obligations, and other liabilities not due within the next year.
• Calculate Owner’s Equity:  Owner’s equity is the residual interest in the assets of the business after deducting liabilities. It includes initial investment, retained earnings, and any other equity contributions.
• Ensure the Fundamental Accounting Equation:  The balance sheet must follow the equation: Assets = Liabilities + Owner’s Equity. This equation must balance, which means the total value of the assets must equal the combined value of liabilities and owner’s equity.

Break-Even Analysis

Break-even analysis is a critical financial tool used to determine when a business will be able to cover all its expenses and start generating profit. Understanding the break-even point is vital for both new and existing businesses, as it informs pricing strategies, cost management, and funding requirements.

Break-Even for Different Business Types

• Established Market Entrants:  Businesses entering established markets (restaurants, dental offices, dry cleaners, etc.), possibly with debt financing like an SBA loan, typically have shorter break-even periods. These range from 6 to 18 months, depending on business complexity and market penetration strategies. For these businesses, the break-even point is crucial to manage debt and establish a foothold in the market.
• Venture-Backed Companies:  For startups (first-movers or fast-followers) creating new markets with novel solutions, the path to break-even is often longer. This is by design, as venture capitalists invest in these companies with the understanding that establishing or growing a new market takes time. These companies may operate for extended periods without breaking even, focusing on market creation and growth rather than immediate profitability.

Calculating the Break-Even Point

• The break-even point is calculated by dividing total fixed costs by the difference between unit price and variable cost per unit.
• Understanding fixed costs (like rent, salaries) and variable costs (costs that change with production volume) is essential for accurate calculation.

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to predict the outcome of a decision given a certain range of variables. In financial modeling , it involves testing how different values of an independent variable affect a particular dependent variable under a given set of assumptions.

Application in Revenue Projections

• Adjusting Revenue Projections:  Commonly, sensitivity analysis in business planning involves altering top-line revenue projections by a certain percentage. This helps in understanding how changes in sales will impact the business’s financial health.
• Scenarios for Sensitivity Analysis:  For example, a business may test how their financials would look if revenues are 15% lower than projected. Assessing different scenarios helps in preparing for various market conditions.
• Importance in Debt Financing:  Banks and financial institutions often use sensitivity analysis to determine if a business can still maintain a debt service coverage ratio above a certain threshold (e.g., 1.3) even if revenues fall short of projections. This analysis is crucial for businesses seeking loans, as it impacts the lender’s confidence in the business’s ability to repay debt.

Up Next: Strategy & Implementation

It’s essential to remember the critical role financial projections play in writing a business plan and guiding your business towards sustainable growth and success. Projections, built on a foundation of diligent research and detailed analysis, enable you to navigate the complexity of fundraising or business management with greater confidence and precision.

Financial projections empower you to set realistic targets, assess key results, and adapt strategies effectively in response to market dynamics. Your financial projections are not just numbers on a page; they are a reflection of your business’s potential and a roadmap for its future.

We encourage you to revisit and refine your financial projections regularly, aligning them with your evolving business landscape and market conditions. And remember, the journey doesn’t end here. To continue enhancing your business acumen and strategic planning, we invite you to explore the next critical step in the Plan & Pitch section: Strategy & Implementation . Here, you’ll get deeper into formulating effective strategies and actionable plans that will further elevate your business’s trajectory. Embrace this journey with the knowledge and tools you’ve acquired, and watch your business vision come to life, one well-planned step at a time.

Proceed to Strategy & Implementation

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