market research hypothesis

How to write a hypothesis for marketing experimentation

• Apr 11, 2021
• 5 minute read

Creating your strongest marketing hypothesis

The potential for your marketing improvement depends on the strength of your testing hypotheses.

But where are you getting your test ideas from? Have you been scouring competitor sites, or perhaps pulling from previous designs on your site? The web is full of ideas and you’re full of ideas – there is no shortage of inspiration, that’s for sure.

Coming up with something you  want  to test isn’t hard to do. Coming up with something you  should  test can be hard to do.

Hard – yes. Impossible? No. Which is good news, because if you can’t create hypotheses for things that should be tested, your test results won’t mean mean much, and you probably shouldn’t be spending your time testing.

Taking the time to write your hypotheses correctly will help you structure your ideas, get better results, and avoid wasting traffic on poor test designs.

With this post, we’re getting advanced with marketing hypotheses, showing you how to write and structure your hypotheses to gain both business results and marketing insights!

By the time you finish reading, you’ll be able to:

• Distinguish a solid hypothesis from a time-waster, and
• Structure your solid hypothesis to get results  and  insights

To make this whole experience a bit more tangible, let’s track a sample idea from…well…idea to hypothesis.

Let’s say you identified a call-to-action (CTA)* while browsing the web, and you were inspired to test something similar on your own lead generation landing page. You think it might work for your users! Your idea is:

“My page needs a new CTA.”

*A call-to-action is the point where you, as a marketer, ask your prospect to do something on your page. It often includes a button or link to an action like “Buy”, “Sign up”, or “Request a quote”.

The basics: The correct marketing hypothesis format

A well-structured hypothesis provides insights whether it is proved, disproved, or results are inconclusive.

You should never phrase a marketing hypothesis as a question. It should be written as a statement that can be rejected or confirmed.

Further, it should be a statement geared toward revealing insights – with this in mind, it helps to imagine each statement followed by a  reason :

• Changing _______ into ______ will increase [conversion goal], because:
• Changing _______ into ______ will decrease [conversion goal], because:
• Changing _______ into ______ will not affect [conversion goal], because:

Each of the above sentences ends with ‘because’ to set the expectation that there will be an explanation behind the results of whatever you’re testing.

It’s important to remember to plan ahead when you create a test, and think about explaining why the test turned out the way it did when the results come in.

Level up: Moving from a good to great hypothesis

Understanding what makes an idea worth testing is necessary for your optimization team.

If your tests are based on random ideas you googled or were suggested by a consultant, your testing process still has its training wheels on. Great hypotheses aren’t random. They’re based on rationale and aim for learning.

Hypotheses should be based on themes and analysis that show potential conversion barriers.

At Conversion, we call this investigation phase the “Explore Phase” where we use frameworks like the LIFT Model to understand the prospect’s unique perspective. (You can read more on the the full optimization process here).

A well-founded marketing hypothesis should also provide you with new, testable clues about your users regardless of whether or not the test wins, loses or yields inconclusive results.

These new insights should inform future testing: a solid hypothesis can help you quickly separate worthwhile ideas from the rest when planning follow-up tests.

“Ultimately, what matters most is that you have a hypothesis going into each experiment and you design each experiment to address that hypothesis.” – Nick So, VP of Delivery

Here’s a quick tip :

If you’re about to run a test that isn’t going to tell you anything new about your users and their motivations, it’s probably not worth investing your time in.

Let’s take this opportunity to refer back to your original idea:

Ok, but  what now ? To get actionable insights from ‘a new CTA’, you need to know why it behaved the way it did. You need to ask the right question.

To test the waters, maybe you changed the copy of the CTA button on your lead generation form from “Submit” to “Send demo request”. If this change leads to an increase in conversions, it could mean that your users require more clarity about what their information is being used for.

That’s a potential insight.

Based on this insight, you could follow up with another test that adds copy around the CTA about next steps: what the user should anticipate after they have submitted their information.

For example, will they be speaking to a specialist via email? Will something be waiting for them the next time they visit your site? You can test providing more information, and see if your users are interested in knowing it!

That’s the cool thing about a good hypothesis: the results of the test, while important (of course) aren’t the only component driving your future test ideas. The insights gleaned lead to further hypotheses and insights in a virtuous cycle.

It’s based on a science

The term “hypothesis” probably isn’t foreign to you. In fact, it may bring up memories of grade-school science class; it’s a critical part of the  scientific method .

The scientific method in testing follows a systematic routine that sets ideation up to predict the results of experiments via:

• Collecting data and information through observation
• Creating tentative descriptions of what is being observed
• Forming  hypotheses  that predict different outcomes based on these observations
• Testing your  hypotheses
• Analyzing the data, drawing conclusions and insights from the results

Don’t worry! Hypothesizing may seem ‘sciency’, but it doesn’t have to be complicated in practice.

Hypothesizing simply helps ensure the results from your tests are quantifiable, and is necessary if you want to understand how the results reflect the change made in your test.

A strong marketing hypothesis allows testers to use a structured approach in order to discover what works, why it works, how it works, where it works, and who it works on.

“My page needs a new CTA.” Is this idea in its current state clear enough to help you understand what works? Maybe. Why it works? No. Where it works? Maybe. Who it works on? No.

Your idea needs refining.

Let’s pull back and take a broader look at the lead generation landing page we want to test.

Imagine the situation: you’ve been diligent in your data collection and you notice several recurrences of Clarity pain points – meaning that there are many unclear instances throughout the page’s messaging.

Rather than focusing on the CTA right off the bat, it may be more beneficial to deal with the bigger clarity issue.

Now you’re starting to think about solving your prospects conversion barriers rather than just testing random ideas!

If you believe the overall page is unclear, your overarching theme of inquiry might be positioned as:

• “Improving the clarity of the page will reduce confusion and improve [conversion goal].”

By testing a hypothesis that supports this clarity theme, you can gain confidence in the validity of it as an actionable marketing insight over time.

If the test results are negative : It may not be worth investigating this motivational barrier any further on this page. In this case, you could return to the data and look at the other motivational barriers that might be affecting user behavior.

If the test results are positive : You might want to continue to refine the clarity of the page’s message with further testing.

Typically, a test will start with a broad idea — you identify the changes to make, predict how those changes will impact your conversion goal, and write it out as a broad theme as shown above. Then, repeated tests aimed at that theme will confirm or undermine the strength of the underlying insight.

Building marketing hypotheses to create insights

You believe you’ve identified an overall problem on your landing page (there’s a problem with clarity). Now you want to understand how individual elements contribute to the problem, and the effect these individual elements have on your users.

It’s game time  – now you can start designing a hypothesis that will generate insights.

You believe your users need more clarity. You’re ready to dig deeper to find out if that’s true!

If a specific question needs answering, you should structure your test to make a single change. This isolation might ask: “What element are users most sensitive to when it comes to the lack of clarity?” and “What changes do I believe will support increasing clarity?”

At this point, you’ll want to boil down your overarching theme…

• Improving the clarity of the page will reduce confusion and improve [conversion goal].

…into a quantifiable hypothesis that isolates key sections:

• Changing the wording of this CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.

Does this answer what works? Yes: changing the wording on your CTA.

Does this answer why it works? Yes: reducing confusion about the next steps in the funnel.

Does this answer where it works? Yes: on this page, before the user enters this theoretical funnel.

Does this answer who it works on? No, this question demands another isolation. You might structure your hypothesis more like this:

• Changing the wording of the CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion  for visitors coming from my email campaign  about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.

Now we’ve got a clear hypothesis. And one worth testing!

What makes a great hypothesis?

1. It’s testable.

2. It addresses conversion barriers.

3. It aims at gaining marketing insights.

Let’s compare:

The original idea : “My page needs a new CTA.”

Following the hypothesis structure : “A new CTA on my page will increase [conversion goal]”

The first test implied a problem with clarity, provides a potential theme : “Improving the clarity of the page will reduce confusion and improve [conversion goal].”

The potential clarity theme leads to a new hypothesis : “Changing the wording of the CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.”

Final refined hypothesis : “Changing the wording of the CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion for visitors coming from my email campaign about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.”

Which test would you rather your team invest in?

Before you start your next test, take the time to do a proper analysis of the page you want to focus on. Do preliminary testing to define bigger issues, and use that information to refine and pinpoint your marketing hypothesis to give you forward-looking insights.

Doing this will help you avoid time-wasting tests, and enable you to start getting some insights for your team to keep testing!

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How to Do Market Research: The Complete Guide

Learn how to do market research with this step-by-step guide, complete with templates, tools and real-world examples.

Access best-in-class company data

Get trusted first-party funding data, revenue data and firmographics

Market research is the systematic process of gathering, analyzing and interpreting information about a specific market or industry.

What are your customers’ needs? How does your product compare to the competition? What are the emerging trends and opportunities in your industry? If these questions keep you up at night, it’s time to conduct market research.

Market research plays a pivotal role in your ability to stay competitive and relevant, helping you anticipate shifts in consumer behavior and industry dynamics. It involves gathering these insights using a wide range of techniques, from surveys and interviews to data analysis and observational studies.

In this guide, we’ll explore why market research is crucial, the various types of market research, the methods used in data collection, and how to effectively conduct market research to drive informed decision-making and success.

What is market research?

The purpose of market research is to offer valuable insight into the preferences and behaviors of your target audience, and anticipate shifts in market trends and the competitive landscape. This information helps you make data-driven decisions, develop effective strategies for your business, and maximize your chances of long-term growth.

Why is market research important? 

By understanding the significance of market research, you can make sure you’re asking the right questions and using the process to your advantage. Some of the benefits of market research include:

• Informed decision-making: Market research provides you with the data and insights you need to make smart decisions for your business. It helps you identify opportunities, assess risks and tailor your strategies to meet the demands of the market. Without market research, decisions are often based on assumptions or guesswork, leading to costly mistakes.
• Customer-centric approach: A cornerstone of market research involves developing a deep understanding of customer needs and preferences. This gives you valuable insights into your target audience, helping you develop products, services and marketing campaigns that resonate with your customers.
• Competitive advantage: By conducting market research, you’ll gain a competitive edge. You’ll be able to identify gaps in the market, analyze competitor strengths and weaknesses, and position your business strategically. This enables you to create unique value propositions, differentiate yourself from competitors, and seize opportunities that others may overlook.
• Risk mitigation: Market research helps you anticipate market shifts and potential challenges. By identifying threats early, you can proactively adjust their strategies to mitigate risks and respond effectively to changing circumstances. This proactive approach is particularly valuable in volatile industries.
• Resource optimization: Conducting market research allows organizations to allocate their time, money and resources more efficiently. It ensures that investments are made in areas with the highest potential return on investment, reducing wasted resources and improving overall business performance.
• Adaptation to market trends: Markets evolve rapidly, driven by technological advancements, cultural shifts and changing consumer attitudes. Market research ensures that you stay ahead of these trends and adapt your offerings accordingly so you can avoid becoming obsolete. 

As you can see, market research empowers businesses to make data-driven decisions, cater to customer needs, outperform competitors, mitigate risks, optimize resources and stay agile in a dynamic marketplace. These benefits make it a huge industry; the global market research services market is expected to grow from $76.37 billion in 2021 to $108.57 billion in 2026 . Now, let’s dig into the different types of market research that can help you achieve these benefits.

Types of market research 

• Qualitative research
• Quantitative research
• Exploratory research
• Descriptive research
• Causal research
• Cross-sectional research
• Longitudinal research

Despite its advantages, 23% of organizations don’t have a clear market research strategy. Part of developing a strategy involves choosing the right type of market research for your business goals. The most commonly used approaches include:

1. Qualitative research

Qualitative research focuses on understanding the underlying motivations, attitudes and perceptions of individuals or groups. It is typically conducted through techniques like in-depth interviews, focus groups and content analysis — methods we’ll discuss further in the sections below. Qualitative research provides rich, nuanced insights that can inform product development, marketing strategies and brand positioning.

2. Quantitative research

Quantitative research, in contrast to qualitative research, involves the collection and analysis of numerical data, often through surveys, experiments and structured questionnaires. This approach allows for statistical analysis and the measurement of trends, making it suitable for large-scale market studies and hypothesis testing. While it’s worthwhile using a mix of qualitative and quantitative research, most businesses prioritize the latter because it is scientific, measurable and easily replicated across different experiments.

3. Exploratory research

Whether you’re conducting qualitative or quantitative research or a mix of both, exploratory research is often the first step. Its primary goal is to help you understand a market or problem so you can gain insights and identify potential issues or opportunities. This type of market research is less structured and is typically conducted through open-ended interviews, focus groups or secondary data analysis. Exploratory research is valuable when entering new markets or exploring new product ideas.

4. Descriptive research

As its name implies, descriptive research seeks to describe a market, population or phenomenon in detail. It involves collecting and summarizing data to answer questions about audience demographics and behaviors, market size, and current trends. Surveys, observational studies and content analysis are common methods used in descriptive research. 

5. Causal research

Causal research aims to establish cause-and-effect relationships between variables. It investigates whether changes in one variable result in changes in another. Experimental designs, A/B testing and regression analysis are common causal research methods. This sheds light on how specific marketing strategies or product changes impact consumer behavior.

6. Cross-sectional research

Cross-sectional market research involves collecting data from a sample of the population at a single point in time. It is used to analyze differences, relationships or trends among various groups within a population. Cross-sectional studies are helpful for market segmentation, identifying target audiences and assessing market trends at a specific moment.

7. Longitudinal research

Longitudinal research, in contrast to cross-sectional research, collects data from the same subjects over an extended period. This allows for the analysis of trends, changes and developments over time. Longitudinal studies are useful for tracking long-term developments in consumer preferences, brand loyalty and market dynamics.

Each type of market research has its strengths and weaknesses, and the method you choose depends on your specific research goals and the depth of understanding you’re aiming to achieve. In the following sections, we’ll delve into primary and secondary research approaches and specific research methods.

Primary vs. secondary market research

Market research of all types can be broadly categorized into two main approaches: primary research and secondary research. By understanding the differences between these approaches, you can better determine the most appropriate research method for your specific goals.

Primary market research 

Primary research involves the collection of original data straight from the source. Typically, this involves communicating directly with your target audience — through surveys, interviews, focus groups and more — to gather information. Here are some key attributes of primary market research:

• Customized data: Primary research provides data that is tailored to your research needs. You design a custom research study and gather information specific to your goals.
• Up-to-date insights: Because primary research involves communicating with customers, the data you collect reflects the most current market conditions and consumer behaviors.
• Time-consuming and resource-intensive: Despite its advantages, primary research can be labor-intensive and costly, especially when dealing with large sample sizes or complex study designs. Whether you hire a market research consultant, agency or use an in-house team, primary research studies consume a large amount of resources and time.

Secondary market research 

Secondary research, on the other hand, involves analyzing data that has already been compiled by third-party sources, such as online research tools, databases, news sites, industry reports and academic studies.

Here are the main characteristics of secondary market research:

• Cost-effective: Secondary research is generally more cost-effective than primary research since it doesn’t require building a research plan from scratch. You and your team can look at databases, websites and publications on an ongoing basis, without needing to design a custom experiment or hire a consultant. 
• Leverages multiple sources: Data tools and software extract data from multiple places across the web, and then consolidate that information within a single platform. This means you’ll get a greater amount of data and a wider scope from secondary research.
• Quick to access: You can access a wide range of information rapidly — often in seconds — if you’re using online research tools and databases. Because of this, you can act on insights sooner, rather than taking the time to develop an experiment. 

So, when should you use primary vs. secondary research? In practice, many market research projects incorporate both primary and secondary research to take advantage of the strengths of each approach.

One rule of thumb is to focus on secondary research to obtain background information, market trends or industry benchmarks. It is especially valuable for conducting preliminary research, competitor analysis, or when time and budget constraints are tight. Then, if you still have knowledge gaps or need to answer specific questions unique to your business model, use primary research to create a custom experiment. 

Market research methods

• Surveys and questionnaires
• Focus groups
• Observational research
• Online research tools
• Experiments
• Content analysis
• Ethnographic research

How do primary and secondary research approaches translate into specific research methods? Let’s take a look at the different ways you can gather data: 

1. Surveys and questionnaires

Surveys and questionnaires are popular methods for collecting structured data from a large number of respondents. They involve a set of predetermined questions that participants answer. Surveys can be conducted through various channels, including online tools, telephone interviews and in-person or online questionnaires. They are useful for gathering quantitative data and assessing customer demographics, opinions, preferences and needs. On average, customer surveys have a 33% response rate , so keep that in mind as you consider your sample size.

2. Interviews

Interviews are in-depth conversations with individuals or groups to gather qualitative insights. They can be structured (with predefined questions) or unstructured (with open-ended discussions). Interviews are valuable for exploring complex topics, uncovering motivations and obtaining detailed feedback. 

3. Focus groups

The most common primary research methods are in-depth webcam interviews and focus groups. Focus groups are a small gathering of participants who discuss a specific topic or product under the guidance of a moderator. These discussions are valuable for primary market research because they reveal insights into consumer attitudes, perceptions and emotions. Focus groups are especially useful for idea generation, concept testing and understanding group dynamics within your target audience.

4. Observational research

Observational research involves observing and recording participant behavior in a natural setting. This method is particularly valuable when studying consumer behavior in physical spaces, such as retail stores or public places. In some types of observational research, participants are aware you’re watching them; in other cases, you discreetly watch consumers without their knowledge, as they use your product. Either way, observational research provides firsthand insights into how people interact with products or environments.

5. Online research tools

You and your team can do your own secondary market research using online tools. These tools include data prospecting platforms and databases, as well as online surveys, social media listening, web analytics and sentiment analysis platforms. They help you gather data from online sources, monitor industry trends, track competitors, understand consumer preferences and keep tabs on online behavior. We’ll talk more about choosing the right market research tools in the sections that follow.

6. Experiments

Market research experiments are controlled tests of variables to determine causal relationships. While experiments are often associated with scientific research, they are also used in market research to assess the impact of specific marketing strategies, product features, or pricing and packaging changes.

7. Content analysis

Content analysis involves the systematic examination of textual, visual or audio content to identify patterns, themes and trends. It’s commonly applied to customer reviews, social media posts and other forms of online content to analyze consumer opinions and sentiments.

8. Ethnographic research

Ethnographic research immerses researchers into the daily lives of consumers to understand their behavior and culture. This method is particularly valuable when studying niche markets or exploring the cultural context of consumer choices.

How to do market research

• Set clear objectives
• Identify your target audience
• Choose your research methods
• Use the right market research tools
• Collect data
• Analyze data 
• Interpret your findings
• Identify opportunities and challenges
• Make informed business decisions
• Monitor and adapt

Now that you have gained insights into the various market research methods at your disposal, let’s delve into the practical aspects of how to conduct market research effectively. Here’s a quick step-by-step overview, from defining objectives to monitoring market shifts.

1. Set clear objectives

When you set clear and specific goals, you’re essentially creating a compass to guide your research questions and methodology. Start by precisely defining what you want to achieve. Are you launching a new product and want to understand its viability in the market? Are you evaluating customer satisfaction with a product redesign? 

Start by creating SMART goals — objectives that are specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound. Not only will this clarify your research focus from the outset, but it will also help you track progress and benchmark your success throughout the process. 

You should also consult with key stakeholders and team members to ensure alignment on your research objectives before diving into data collecting. This will help you gain diverse perspectives and insights that will shape your research approach.

2. Identify your target audience

Next, you’ll need to pinpoint your target audience to determine who should be included in your research. Begin by creating detailed buyer personas or stakeholder profiles. Consider demographic factors like age, gender, income and location, but also delve into psychographics, such as interests, values and pain points.

The more specific your target audience, the more accurate and actionable your research will be. Additionally, segment your audience if your research objectives involve studying different groups, such as current customers and potential leads.

If you already have existing customers, you can also hold conversations with them to better understand your target market. From there, you can refine your buyer personas and tailor your research methods accordingly.

3. Choose your research methods

Selecting the right research methods is crucial for gathering high-quality data. Start by considering the nature of your research objectives. If you’re exploring consumer preferences, surveys and interviews can provide valuable insights. For in-depth understanding, focus groups or observational research might be suitable. Consider using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods to gain a well-rounded perspective. 

You’ll also need to consider your budget. Think about what you can realistically achieve using the time and resources available to you. If you have a fairly generous budget, you may want to try a mix of primary and secondary research approaches. If you’re doing market research for a startup , on the other hand, chances are your budget is somewhat limited. If that’s the case, try addressing your goals with secondary research tools before investing time and effort in a primary research study. 

4. Use the right market research tools

Whether you’re conducting primary or secondary research, you’ll need to choose the right tools. These can help you do anything from sending surveys to customers to monitoring trends and analyzing data. Here are some examples of popular market research tools:

• Market research software: Crunchbase is a platform that provides best-in-class company data, making it valuable for market research on growing companies and industries. You can use Crunchbase to access trusted, first-party funding data, revenue data, news and firmographics, enabling you to monitor industry trends and understand customer needs.

• Survey and questionnaire tools: SurveyMonkey is a widely used online survey platform that allows you to create, distribute and analyze surveys. Google Forms is a free tool that lets you create surveys and collect responses through Google Drive.
• Data analysis software: Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets are useful for conducting statistical analyses. SPSS is a powerful statistical analysis software used for data processing, analysis and reporting.
• Social listening tools: Brandwatch is a social listening and analytics platform that helps you monitor social media conversations, track sentiment and analyze trends. Mention is a media monitoring tool that allows you to track mentions of your brand, competitors and keywords across various online sources.
• Data visualization platforms: Tableau is a data visualization tool that helps you create interactive and shareable dashboards and reports. Power BI by Microsoft is a business analytics tool for creating interactive visualizations and reports.

5. Collect data

There’s an infinite amount of data you could be collecting using these tools, so you’ll need to be intentional about going after the data that aligns with your research goals. Implement your chosen research methods, whether it’s distributing surveys, conducting interviews or pulling from secondary research platforms. Pay close attention to data quality and accuracy, and stick to a standardized process to streamline data capture and reduce errors. 

6. Analyze data

Once data is collected, you’ll need to analyze it systematically. Use statistical software or analysis tools to identify patterns, trends and correlations. For qualitative data, employ thematic analysis to extract common themes and insights. Visualize your findings with charts, graphs and tables to make complex data more understandable.

If you’re not proficient in data analysis, consider outsourcing or collaborating with a data analyst who can assist in processing and interpreting your data accurately.

7. Interpret your findings

Interpreting your market research findings involves understanding what the data means in the context of your objectives. Are there significant trends that uncover the answers to your initial research questions? Consider the implications of your findings on your business strategy. It’s essential to move beyond raw data and extract actionable insights that inform decision-making.

Hold a cross-functional meeting or workshop with relevant team members to collectively interpret the findings. Different perspectives can lead to more comprehensive insights and innovative solutions.

8. Identify opportunities and challenges

Use your research findings to identify potential growth opportunities and challenges within your market. What segments of your audience are underserved or overlooked? Are there emerging trends you can capitalize on? Conversely, what obstacles or competitors could hinder your progress?

Lay out this information in a clear and organized way by conducting a SWOT analysis, which stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Jot down notes for each of these areas to provide a structured overview of gaps and hurdles in the market.

9. Make informed business decisions

Market research is only valuable if it leads to informed decisions for your company. Based on your insights, devise actionable strategies and initiatives that align with your research objectives. Whether it’s refining your product, targeting new customer segments or adjusting pricing, ensure your decisions are rooted in the data.

At this point, it’s also crucial to keep your team aligned and accountable. Create an action plan that outlines specific steps, responsibilities and timelines for implementing the recommendations derived from your research. 

10. Monitor and adapt

Market research isn’t a one-time activity; it’s an ongoing process. Continuously monitor market conditions, customer behaviors and industry trends. Set up mechanisms to collect real-time data and feedback. As you gather new information, be prepared to adapt your strategies and tactics accordingly. Regularly revisiting your research ensures your business remains agile and reflects changing market dynamics and consumer preferences.

Online market research sources

As you go through the steps above, you’ll want to turn to trusted, reputable sources to gather your data. Here’s a list to get you started:

• Crunchbase: As mentioned above, Crunchbase is an online platform with an extensive dataset, allowing you to access in-depth insights on market trends, consumer behavior and competitive analysis. You can also customize your search options to tailor your research to specific industries, geographic regions or customer personas.

• Academic databases: Academic databases, such as ProQuest and JSTOR , are treasure troves of scholarly research papers, studies and academic journals. They offer in-depth analyses of various subjects, including market trends, consumer preferences and industry-specific insights. Researchers can access a wealth of peer-reviewed publications to gain a deeper understanding of their research topics.
• Government and NGO databases: Government agencies, nongovernmental organizations and other institutions frequently maintain databases containing valuable economic, demographic and industry-related data. These sources offer credible statistics and reports on a wide range of topics, making them essential for market researchers. Examples include the U.S. Census Bureau , the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Pew Research Center .
• Industry reports: Industry reports and market studies are comprehensive documents prepared by research firms, industry associations and consulting companies. They provide in-depth insights into specific markets, including market size, trends, competitive analysis and consumer behavior. You can find this information by looking at relevant industry association databases; examples include the American Marketing Association and the National Retail Federation .
• Social media and online communities: Social media platforms like LinkedIn or Twitter (X) , forums such as Reddit and Quora , and review platforms such as G2 can provide real-time insights into consumer sentiment, opinions and trends. 

Market research examples

At this point, you have market research tools and data sources — but how do you act on the data you gather? Let’s go over some real-world examples that illustrate the practical application of market research across various industries. These examples showcase how market research can lead to smart decision-making and successful business decisions.

Example 1: Apple’s iPhone launch

Apple ’s iconic iPhone launch in 2007 serves as a prime example of market research driving product innovation in tech. Before the iPhone’s release, Apple conducted extensive market research to understand consumer preferences, pain points and unmet needs in the mobile phone industry. This research led to the development of a touchscreen smartphone with a user-friendly interface, addressing consumer demands for a more intuitive and versatile device. The result was a revolutionary product that disrupted the market and redefined the smartphone industry.

Example 2: McDonald’s global expansion

McDonald’s successful global expansion strategy demonstrates the importance of market research when expanding into new territories. Before entering a new market, McDonald’s conducts thorough research to understand local tastes, preferences and cultural nuances. This research informs menu customization, marketing strategies and store design. For instance, in India, McDonald’s offers a menu tailored to local preferences, including vegetarian options. This market-specific approach has enabled McDonald’s to adapt and thrive in diverse global markets.

Example 3: Organic and sustainable farming

The shift toward organic and sustainable farming practices in the food industry is driven by market research that indicates increased consumer demand for healthier and environmentally friendly food options. As a result, food producers and retailers invest in sustainable sourcing and organic product lines — such as with these sustainable seafood startups — to align with this shift in consumer values. 

The bottom line? Market research has multiple use cases and is a critical practice for any industry. Whether it’s launching groundbreaking products, entering new markets or responding to changing consumer preferences, you can use market research to shape successful strategies and outcomes.

Market research templates

You finally have a strong understanding of how to do market research and apply it in the real world. Before we wrap up, here are some market research templates that you can use as a starting point for your projects:

• Smartsheet competitive analysis templates : These spreadsheets can serve as a framework for gathering information about the competitive landscape and obtaining valuable lessons to apply to your business strategy.
• SurveyMonkey product survey template : Customize the questions on this survey based on what you want to learn from your target customers.
• HubSpot templates : HubSpot offers a wide range of free templates you can use for market research, business planning and more.
• SCORE templates : SCORE is a nonprofit organization that provides templates for business plans, market analysis and financial projections.
• SBA.gov : The U.S. Small Business Administration offers templates for every aspect of your business, including market research, and is particularly valuable for new startups. 

Strengthen your business with market research

When conducted effectively, market research is like a guiding star. Equipped with the right tools and techniques, you can uncover valuable insights, stay competitive, foster innovation and navigate the complexities of your industry.

Throughout this guide, we’ve discussed the definition of market research, different research methods, and how to conduct it effectively. We’ve also explored various types of market research and shared practical insights and templates for getting started. 

Now, it’s time to start the research process. Trust in data, listen to the market and make informed decisions that guide your company toward lasting success.

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Expert Advice on Developing a Hypothesis for Marketing Experimentation 

• Conversion Rate Optimization

Simbar Dube

Every marketing experimentation process has to have a solid hypothesis. 

That’s a must – unless you want to be roaming in the dark and heading towards a dead-end in your experimentation program.

Hypothesizing is the second phase of our SHIP optimization process here at Invesp.

It comes after we have completed the research phase. 

This is an indication that we don’t just pull a hypothesis out of thin air. We always make sure that it is based on research data. 

But having a research-backed hypothesis doesn’t mean that the hypothesis will always be correct. In fact, tons of hypotheses bear inconclusive results or get disproved. 

The main idea of having a hypothesis in marketing experimentation is to help you gain insights – regardless of the testing outcome. 

By the time you finish reading this article, you’ll know: 

• The essential tips on what to do when crafting a hypothesis for marketing experiments
• How a marketing experiment hypothesis works 

How experts develop a solid hypothesis

The basics: marketing experimentation hypothesis.

A hypothesis is a research-based statement that aims to explain an observed trend and create a solution that will improve the result. This statement is an educated, testable prediction about what will happen.

It has to be stated in declarative form and not as a question.

“ If we add magnification info, product video and making virtual mirror buttons, will that improve engagement? ” is not declarative, but “ Improving the experience of product pages by adding magnification info, product video and making virtual mirror buttons will increase engagement ” is.

Here’s a quick example of how a hypothesis should be phrased: 

• Replacing ___ with __ will increase [conversion goal] by [%], because:
• Removing ___ and __ will decrease [conversion goal] by [%], because:
• Changing ___ into __ will not affect [conversion goal], because:
• Improving  ___ by  ___will increase [conversion goal], because: 

As you can see from the above sentences, a good hypothesis is written in clear and simple language. Reading your hypothesis should tell your team members exactly what you thought was going to happen in an experiment.

Another important element of a good hypothesis is that it defines the variables in easy-to-measure terms, like who the participants are, what changes during the testing, and what the effect of the changes will be: 

Example : Let’s say this is our hypothesis: 

Displaying full look items on every “continue shopping & view your bag” pop-up and highlighting the value of having a full look will improve the visibility of a full look, encourage visitors to add multiple items from the same look and that will increase the average order value, quantity with cross-selling by 3% .

Who are the participants : 

Visitors. 

What changes during the testing : 

Displaying full look items on every “continue shopping & view your bag” pop-up and highlighting the value of having a full look…

What the effect of the changes will be:  

Will improve the visibility of a full look, encourage visitors to add multiple items from the same look and that will increase the average order value, quantity with cross-selling by 3% .

Don’t bite off more than you can chew! Answering some scientific questions can involve more than one experiment, each with its own hypothesis. so, you have to make sure your hypothesis is a specific statement relating to a single experiment.

How a Marketing Experimentation Hypothesis Works

Assuming that you have done conversion research and you have identified a list of issues ( UX or conversion-related problems) and potential revenue opportunities on the site. The next thing you’d want to do is to prioritize the issues and determine which issues will most impact the bottom line.

Having ranked the issues you need to test them to determine which solution works best. At this point, you don’t have a clear solution for the problems identified. So, to get better results and avoid wasting traffic on poor test designs, you need to make sure that your testing plan is guided. 

This is where a hypothesis comes into play. 

For each and every problem you’re aiming to address, you need to craft a hypothesis for it – unless the problem is a technical issue that can be solved right away without the need to hypothesize or test. 

One important thing you should note about an experimentation hypothesis is that it can be implemented in different ways.  

This means that one hypothesis can have four or five different tests as illustrated in the image above. Khalid Saleh , the Invesp CEO, explains: 

“There are several ways that can be used to support one single hypothesis. Each and every way is a possible test scenario. And that means you also have to prioritize the test design you want to start with. Ultimately the name of the game is you want to find the idea that has the biggest possible impact on the bottom line with the least amount of effort. We use almost 18 different metrics to score all of those.”

In one of the recent tests we launched after watching video recordings, viewing heatmaps, and conducting expert reviews, we noticed that:  

• Visitors were scrolling to the bottom of the page to fill out a calculator so as to get a free diet plan. 
• Brand is missing 
• Too many free diet plans – and this made it hard for visitors to choose and understand.  
• No value proposition on the page
• The copy didn’t mention the benefits of the paid program
• There was no clear CTA for the next action

To help you understand, let’s have a look at how the original page looked like before we worked on it: 

So our aim was to make the shopping experience seamless for visitors, make the page more appealing and not confusing. In order to do that, here is how we phrased the hypothesis for the page above: 

Improving the experience of optin landing pages by making the free offer accessible above the fold and highlighting the next action with a clear CTA and will increase the engagement on the offer and increase the conversion rate by 1%.

For this particular hypothesis, we had two design variations aligned to it:

The two above designs are different, but they are aligned to one hypothesis. This goes on to show how one hypothesis can be implemented in different ways. Looking at the two variations above – which one do you think won?

Yes, you’re right, V2 was the winner. 

Considering that there are many ways you can implement one hypothesis, so when you launch a test and it fails, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the hypothesis was wrong. Khalid adds:

“A single failure of a test doesn’t mean that the hypothesis is incorrect. Nine times out of ten it’s because of the way you’ve implemented the hypothesis. Look at the way you’ve coded and look at the copy you’ve used – you are more likely going to find something wrong with it. Always be open.” 

So there are three things you should keep in mind when it comes to marketing experimentation hypotheses: 

• It takes a while for this hypothesis to really fully test it.
• A single failure doesn’t necessarily mean that the hypothesis is incorrect.
• Whether a hypothesis is proved or disproved, you can still learn something about your users.

I know it’s never easy to develop a hypothesis that informs future testing – I mean it takes a lot of intense research behind the scenes, and tons of ideas to begin with. So, I reached out to six CRO experts for tips and advice to help you understand more about developing a solid hypothesis and what to include in it. 

Maurice   says that a solid hypothesis should have not more than one goal: 

Maurice Beerthuyzen – CRO/CXO Lead at ClickValue “Creating a hypothesis doesn’t begin at the hypothesis itself. It starts with research. What do you notice in your data, customer surveys, and other sources? Do you understand what happens on your website? When you notice an opportunity it is tempting to base one single A/B test on one hypothesis. Create hypothesis A and run a single test, and then move forward to the next test. With another hypothesis. But it is very rare that you solve your problem with only one hypothesis. Often a test provides several other questions. Questions which you can solve with running other tests. But based on that same hypothesis! We should not come up with a new hypothesis for every test. Another mistake that often happens is that we fill the hypothesis with multiple goals. Then we expect that the hypothesis will work on conversion rate, average order value, and/or Click Through Ratio. Of course, this is possible, but when you run your test, your hypothesis can only have one goal at once. And what if you have two goals? Just split the hypothesis then create a secondary hypothesis for your second goal. Every test has one primary goal. What if you find a winner on your secondary hypothesis? Rerun the test with the second hypothesis as the primary one.”

Jon believes that a strong hypothesis is built upon three pillars:

Jon MacDonald – President and Founder of The Good Respond to an established challenge – The challenge must have a strong background based on data, and the background should state an established challenge that the test is looking to address. Example: “Sign up form lacks proof of value, incorrectly assuming if users are on the page, they already want the product.” Propose a specific solution – What is the one, the single thing that is believed will address the stated challenge? Example: “Adding an image of the dashboard as a background to the signup form…”. State the assumed impact – The assumed impact should reference one specific, measurable optimization goal that was established prior to forming a hypothesis. Example: “…will increase signups.” So, if your hypothesis doesn’t have a specific, measurable goal like “will increase signups,” you’re not really stating a test hypothesis!”

Matt uses his own hypothesis builder to collate important data points into a single hypothesis. 

Matt Beischel – Founder of Corvus CRO Like Jon, Matt also breaks down his hypothesis writing process into three sections. Unlike Jon, Matt sections are: Comprehension Response Outcome I set it up so that the names neatly match the “CRO.” It’s a sort of “mad-libs” style fill-in-the-blank where each input is an important piece of information for building out a robust hypothesis. I consider these the minimum required data points for a good hypothesis; if you can’t completely fill out the form, then you don’t have a good hypothesis. Here’s a breakdown of each data point: Comprehension – Identifying something that can be improved upon Problem: “What is a problem we have?” Observation Method: “How did we identify the problem?” Response – Change that can cause improvement Variation: “What change do we think could solve the problem?” Location: “Where should the change occur?” Scope: “What are the conditions for the change?” Audience: “Who should the change affect?” Outcome – Measurable result of the change that determines the success Behavior Change : “What change in behavior are we trying to affect?” Primary KPI: “What is the important metric that determines business impact?” Secondary KPIs: “Other metrics that will help reinforce/refute the Primary KPI” Something else to consider is that I have a “user first” approach to formulating hypotheses. My process above is always considered within the context of how it would first benefit the user. Now, I do feel that a successful experiment should satisfy the needs of BOTH users and businesses, but always be in favor of the user. Notice that “Behavior Change” is the first thing listed in Outcome, not primary business KPI. Sure, at the end of the day you are working for the business’s best interests (both strategically and financially), but placing the user first will better inform your decision making and prioritization; there’s a reason that things like personas, user stories, surveys, session replays, reviews, etc. exist after all. A business-first ideology is how you end up with dark patterns and damaging brand credibility.”

One of the many mistakes that CROs make when writing a hypothesis is that they are focused on wins and not on insights. Shiva advises against this mindset:

Shiva Manjunath – Marketing Manager and CRO at Gartner “Test to learn, not test to win. It’s a very simple reframe of hypotheses but can have a magnitude of difference. Here’s an example: Test to Win Hypothesis: If I put a product video in the middle of the product page, I will improve add to cart rates and improve CVR. Test to Learn Hypothesis: If I put a product video on the product page, there will be high engagement with the video and it will positively influence traffic What you’re doing is framing your hypothesis, and test, in a particular way to learn as much as you can. That is where you gain marketing insights. The more you run ‘marketing insight’ tests, the more you will win. Why? The more you compound marketing insight learnings, your win velocity will start to increase as a proxy of the learnings you’ve achieved. Then, you’ll have a higher chance of winning in your tests – and the more you’ll be able to drive business results.”

Lorenzo  says it’s okay to focus on achieving a certain result as long as you are also getting an answer to: “Why is this event happening or not happening?”

Lorenzo Carreri – CRO Consultant “When I come up with a hypothesis for a new or iterative experiment, I always try to find an answer to a question. It could be something related to a problem people have or an opportunity to achieve a result or a way to learn something. The main question I want to answer is “Why is this event happening or not happening?” The question is driven by data, both qualitative and quantitative. The structure I use for stating my hypothesis is: From [data source], I noticed [this problem/opportunity] among [this audience of users] on [this page or multiple pages]. So I believe that by [offering this experiment solution], [this KPI] will [increase/decrease/stay the same].

Jakub Linowski says that hypotheses are meant to hold researchers accountable:

Jakub Linowski – Chief Editor of GoodUI “They do this by making your change and prediction more explicit. A typical hypothesis may be expressed as: If we change (X), then it will have some measurable effect (A). Unfortunately, this oversimplified format can also become a heavy burden to your experiment design with its extreme reductionism. However you decide to format your hypotheses, here are three suggestions for more flexibility to avoid limiting yourself. One Or More Changes To break out of the first limitation, we have to admit that our experiments may contain a single or multiple changes. Whereas the classic hypothesis encourages a single change or isolated variable, it’s not the only way we can run experiments. In the real world, it’s quite normal to see multiple design changes inside a single variation. One valid reason for doing this is when wishing to optimize a section of a website while aiming for a greater effect. As more positive changes compound together, there are times when teams decide to run bigger experiments. An experiment design (along with your hypotheses) therefore should allow for both single or multiple changes. One Or More Metrics A second limitation of many hypotheses is that they often ask us to only make a single prediction at a time. There are times when we might like to make multiple guesses or predictions to a set of metrics. A simple example of this might be a trade-off experiment with a guess of increased sales but decreased trial signups. Being able to express single or multiple metrics in our experimental designs should therefore be possible. Estimates, Directional Predictions, Or Unknowns Finally, traditional hypotheses also tend to force very simple directional predictions by asking us to guess whether something will increase or decrease. In reality, however, the fidelity of predictions can be higher or lower. On one hand, I’ve seen and made experiment estimations that contain specific numbers from prior data (ex: increase sales by 14%). While at other times it should also be acceptable to admit the unknown and leave the prediction blank. One example of this is when we are testing a completely novel idea without any prior data in a highly exploratory type of experiment. In such cases, it might be dishonest to make any sort of predictions and we should allow ourselves to express the unknown comfortably.”

Conclusion 

So there you have it! Before you jump on launching a test, start by making sure that your hypothesis is solid and backed by research. Ask yourself the questions below when crafting a hypothesis for marketing experimentation:

• Is the hypothesis backed by research?
• Can the hypothesis be tested?
• Does the hypothesis provide insights?
• Does the hypothesis set the expectation that there will be an explanation behind the results of whatever you’re testing?

Don’t worry! Hypothesizing may seem like a very complicated process, but it’s not complicated in practice especially when you have done proper research.

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Market research definition

Market research – in-house or outsourced, market research in the age of data, when to use market research.

• Types of market research 

Different types of primary research

How to do market research (primary data), how to do secondary market research, communicating your market research findings, choose the right platform for your market research, try qualtrics for free, the ultimate guide to market research: how to conduct it like a pro.

27 min read Wondering how to do market research? Or even where to start learning about it? Use our ultimate guide to understand the basics and discover how you can use market research to help your business.

Market research is the practice of gathering information about the needs and preferences of your target audience – potential consumers of your product.

When you understand how your target consumer feels and behaves, you can then take steps to meet their needs and mitigate the risk of an experience gap – where there is a shortfall between what a consumer expects you to deliver and what you actually deliver. Market research can also help you keep abreast of what your competitors are offering, which in turn will affect what your customers expect from you.

Market research connects with every aspect of a business – including brand , product , customer service , marketing and sales.

Market research generally focuses on understanding:

• The consumer (current customers, past customers, non-customers, influencers))
• The company (product or service design, promotion, pricing, placement, service, sales)
• The competitors (and how their market offerings interact in the market environment)
• The industry overall (whether it’s growing or moving in a certain direction)

Free eBook: 2024 market research trends report

Why is market research important?

A successful business relies on understanding what like, what they dislike, what they need and what messaging they will respond to. Businesses also need to understand their competition to identify opportunities to differentiate their products and services from other companies.

Today’s business leaders face an endless stream of decisions around target markets, pricing, promotion, distribution channels, and product features and benefits . They must account for all the factors involved, and there are market research studies and methodologies strategically designed to capture meaningful data to inform every choice. It can be a daunting task.

Market research allows companies to make data-driven decisions to drive growth and innovation.

What happens when you don’t do market research?

Without market research, business decisions are based at best on past consumer behavior, economic indicators, or at worst, on gut feel. Decisions are made in a bubble without thought to what the competition is doing. An important aim of market research is to remove subjective opinions when making business decisions. As a brand you are there to serve your customers, not personal preferences within the company. You are far more likely to be successful if you know the difference, and market research will help make sure your decisions are insight-driven.

Traditionally there have been specialist market researchers who are very good at what they do, and businesses have been reliant on their ability to do it. Market research specialists will always be an important part of the industry, as most brands are limited by their internal capacity, expertise and budgets and need to outsource at least some aspects of the work.

However, the market research external agency model has meant that brands struggled to keep up with the pace of change. Their customers would suffer because their needs were not being wholly met with point-in-time market research.

Businesses looking to conduct market research have to tackle many questions –

• Who are my consumers, and how should I segment and prioritize them?
• What are they looking for within my category?
• How much are they buying, and what are their purchase triggers, barriers, and buying habits?
• Will my marketing and communications efforts resonate?
• Is my brand healthy ?
• What product features matter most?
• Is my product or service ready for launch?
• Are my pricing and packaging plans optimized?

They all need to be answered, but many businesses have found the process of data collection daunting, time-consuming and expensive. The hardest battle is often knowing where to begin and short-term demands have often taken priority over longer-term projects that require patience to offer return on investment.

Today however, the industry is making huge strides, driven by quickening product cycles, tighter competition and business imperatives around more data-driven decision making. With the emergence of simple, easy to use tools , some degree of in-house market research is now seen as essential, with fewer excuses not to use data to inform your decisions. With greater accessibility to such software, everyone can be an expert regardless of level or experience.

How is this possible?

The art of research hasn’t gone away. It is still a complex job and the volume of data that needs to be analyzed is huge. However with the right tools and support, sophisticated research can look very simple – allowing you to focus on taking action on what matters.

If you’re not yet using technology to augment your in-house market research, now is the time to start.

The most successful brands rely on multiple sources of data to inform their strategy and decision making, from their marketing segmentation to the product features they develop to comments on social media. In fact, there’s tools out there that use machine learning and AI to automate the tracking of what’s people are saying about your brand across all sites.

The emergence of newer and more sophisticated tools and platforms gives brands access to more data sources than ever and how the data is analyzed and used to make decisions. This also increases the speed at which they operate, with minimal lead time allowing brands to be responsive to business conditions and take an agile approach to improvements and opportunities.

Expert partners have an important role in getting the best data, particularly giving access to additional market research know-how, helping you find respondents , fielding surveys and reporting on results.

How do you measure success?

Business activities are usually measured on how well they deliver return on investment (ROI). Since market research doesn’t generate any revenue directly, its success has to be measured by looking at the positive outcomes it drives – happier customers, a healthier brand, and so on.

When changes to your products or your marketing strategy are made as a result of your market research findings, you can compare on a before-and-after basis to see if the knowledge you acted on has delivered value.

Regardless of the function you work within, understanding the consumer is the goal of any market research. To do this, we have to understand what their needs are in order to effectively meet them. If we do that, we are more likely to drive customer satisfaction , and in turn, increase customer retention .

Several metrics and KPIs are used to gauge the success of decisions made from market research results, including

• Brand awareness within the target market
• Share of wallet
• CSAT (customer satisfaction)
• NPS (Net Promoter Score)

You can use market research for almost anything related to your current customers, potential customer base or target market. If you want to find something out from your target audience, it’s likely market research is the answer.

Here are a few of the most common uses:

Buyer segmentation and profiling

Segmentation is a popular technique that separates your target market according to key characteristics, such as behavior, demographic information and social attitudes. Segmentation allows you to create relevant content for your different segments, ideally helping you to better connect with all of them.

Buyer personas are profiles of fictional customers – with real attributes. Buyer personas help you develop products and communications that are right for your different audiences, and can also guide your decision-making process. Buyer personas capture the key characteristics of your customer segments, along with meaningful insights about what they want or need from you. They provide a powerful reminder of consumer attitudes when developing a product or service, a marketing campaign or a new brand direction.

By understanding your buyers and potential customers, including their motivations, needs, and pain points, you can optimize everything from your marketing communications to your products to make sure the right people get the relevant content, at the right time, and via the right channel .

Attitudes and Usage surveys

Attitude & Usage research helps you to grow your brand by providing a detailed understanding of consumers. It helps you understand how consumers use certain products and why, what their needs are, what their preferences are, and what their pain points are. It helps you to find gaps in the market, anticipate future category needs, identify barriers to entry and build accurate go-to-market strategies and business plans.

Marketing strategy

Effective market research is a crucial tool for developing an effective marketing strategy – a company’s plan for how they will promote their products.

It helps marketers look like rock stars by helping them understand the target market to avoid mistakes, stay on message, and predict customer needs . It’s marketing’s job to leverage relevant data to reach the best possible solution  based on the research available. Then, they can implement the solution, modify the solution, and successfully deliver that solution to the market.

Product development

You can conduct market research into how a select group of consumers use and perceive your product – from how they use it through to what they like and dislike about it. Evaluating your strengths and weaknesses early on allows you to focus resources on ideas with the most potential and to gear your product or service design to a specific market.

Chobani’s yogurt pouches are a product optimized through great market research . Using product concept testing – a form of market research – Chobani identified that packaging could negatively impact consumer purchase decisions. The brand made a subtle change, ensuring the item satisfied the needs of consumers. This ability to constantly refine its products for customer needs and preferences has helped Chobani become Australia’s #1 yogurt brand and increase market share.

Pricing decisions

Market research provides businesses with insights to guide pricing decisions too. One of the most powerful tools available to market researchers is conjoint analysis, a form of market research study that uses choice modeling to help brands identify the perfect set of features and price for customers. Another useful tool is the Gabor-Granger method, which helps you identify the highest price consumers are willing to pay for a given product or service.

Brand tracking studies

A company’s brand is one of its most important assets. But unlike other metrics like product sales, it’s not a tangible measure you can simply pull from your system. Regular market research that tracks consumer perceptions of your brand allows you to monitor and optimize your brand strategy in real time, then respond to consumer feedback to help maintain or build your brand with your target customers.

Advertising and communications testing

Advertising campaigns can be expensive, and without pre-testing, they carry risk of falling flat with your target audience. By testing your campaigns, whether it’s the message or the creative, you can understand how consumers respond to your communications before you deploy them so you can make changes in response to consumer feedback before you go live.

Finder, which is one of the world’s fastest-growing online comparison websites, is an example of a brand using market research to inject some analytical rigor into the business. Fueled by great market research, the business lifted brand awareness by 23 percent, boosted NPS by 8 points, and scored record profits – all within 10 weeks.

Competitive analysis

Another key part of developing the right product and communications is understanding your main competitors and how consumers perceive them. You may have looked at their websites and tried out their product or service, but unless you know how consumers perceive them, you won’t have an accurate view of where you stack up in comparison. Understanding their position in the market allows you to identify the strengths you can exploit, as well as any weaknesses you can address to help you compete better.

Customer Story

See How Yamaha Does Product Research

Types of market research

Although there are many types market research, all methods can be sorted into one of two categories: primary and secondary.

Primary research

Primary research is market research data that you collect yourself. This is raw data collected through a range of different means – surveys , focus groups,  , observation and interviews being among the most popular.

Primary information is fresh, unused data, giving you a perspective that is current or perhaps extra confidence when confirming hypotheses you already had. It can also be very targeted to your exact needs. Primary information can be extremely valuable. Tools for collecting primary information are increasingly sophisticated and the market is growing rapidly.

Historically, conducting market research in-house has been a daunting concept for brands because they don’t quite know where to begin, or how to handle vast volumes of data. Now, the emergence of technology has meant that brands have access to simple, easy to use tools to help with exactly that problem. As a result, brands are more confident about their own projects and data with the added benefit of seeing the insights emerge in real-time.

Secondary research

Secondary research is the use of data that has already been collected, analyzed and published – typically it’s data you don’t own and that hasn’t been conducted with your business specifically in mind, although there are forms of internal secondary data like old reports or figures from past financial years that come from within your business. Secondary research can be used to support the use of primary research.

Secondary research can be beneficial to small businesses because it is sometimes easier to obtain, often through research companies. Although the rise of primary research tools are challenging this trend by allowing businesses to conduct their own market research more cheaply, secondary research is often a cheaper alternative for businesses who need to spend money carefully. Some forms of secondary research have been described as ‘lean market research’ because they are fast and pragmatic, building on what’s already there.

Because it’s not specific to your business, secondary research may be less relevant, and you’ll need to be careful to make sure it applies to your exact research question. It may also not be owned, which means your competitors and other parties also have access to it.

Primary or secondary research – which to choose?

Both primary and secondary research have their advantages, but they are often best used when paired together, giving you the confidence to act knowing that the hypothesis you have is robust.

Secondary research is sometimes preferred because there is a misunderstanding of the feasibility of primary research. Thanks to advances in technology, brands have far greater accessibility to primary research, but this isn’t always known.

If you’ve decided to gather your own primary information, there are many different data collection methods that you may consider. For example:

• Customer surveys
• Focus groups
• Observation

Think carefully about what you’re trying to accomplish before picking the data collection method(s) you’re going to use. Each one has its pros and cons. Asking someone a simple, multiple-choice survey question will generate a different type of data than you might obtain with an in-depth interview. Determine if your primary research is exploratory or specific, and if you’ll need qualitative research, quantitative research, or both.

Qualitative vs quantitative

Another way of categorizing different types of market research is according to whether they are qualitative or quantitative.

Qualitative research

Qualitative research is the collection of data that is non-numerical in nature. It summarizes and infers, rather than pin-points an exact truth. It is exploratory and can lead to the generation of a hypothesis.

Market research techniques that would gather qualitative data include:

• Interviews (face to face / telephone)
• Open-ended survey questions

Researchers use these types of market research technique because they can add more depth to the data. So for example, in focus groups or interviews, rather than being limited to ‘yes’ or ‘no’ for a certain question, you can start to understand why someone might feel a certain way.

Quantitative research

Quantitative research is the collection of data that is numerical in nature. It is much more black and white in comparison to qualitative data, although you need to make sure there is a representative sample if you want the results to be reflective of reality.

Quantitative researchers often start with a hypothesis and then collect data which can be used to determine whether empirical evidence to support that hypothesis exists.

Quantitative research methods include:

• Questionnaires
• Review scores

Exploratory and specific research

Exploratory research is the approach to take if you don’t know what you don’t know. It can give you broad insights about your customers, product, brand, and market. If you want to answer a specific question, then you’ll be conducting specific research.

• Exploratory . This research is general and open-ended, and typically involves lengthy interviews with an individual or small focus group.
• Specific . This research is often used to solve a problem identified in exploratory research. It involves more structured, formal interviews.

Exploratory primary research is generally conducted by collecting qualitative data. Specific research usually finds its insights through quantitative data.

Primary research can be qualitative or quantitative, large-scale or focused and specific. You’ll carry it out using methods like surveys – which can be used for both qualitative and quantitative studies – focus groups, observation of consumer behavior, interviews, or online tools.

Step 1: Identify your research topic

Research topics could include:

• Product features
• Product or service launch
• Understanding a new target audience (or updating an existing audience)
• Brand identity
• Marketing campaign concepts
• Customer experience

Step 2: Draft a research hypothesis

A hypothesis is the assumption you’re starting out with. Since you can disprove a negative much more easily than prove a positive, a hypothesis is a negative statement such as ‘price has no effect on brand perception’.

Step 3: Determine which research methods are most effective

Your choice of methods depends on budget, time constraints, and the type of question you’re trying to answer. You could combine surveys, interviews and focus groups to get a mix of qualitative and quantitative data.

Step 4: Determine how you will collect and analyze your data.

Primary research can generate a huge amount of data, and when the goal is to uncover actionable insight, it can be difficult to know where to begin or what to pay attention to.

The rise in brands taking their market research and data analysis in-house has coincided with the rise of technology simplifying the process. These tools pull through large volumes of data and outline significant information that will help you make the most important decisions.

Step 5: Conduct your research!

This is how you can run your research using Qualtrics CoreXM

• Pre-launch – Here you want to ensure that the survey/ other research methods conform to the project specifications (what you want to achieve/research)
• Soft launch – Collect a small fraction of the total data before you fully launch. This means you can check that everything is working as it should and you can correct any data quality issues.
• Full launch – You’ve done the hard work to get to this point. If you’re using a tool, you can sit back and relax, or if you get curious you can check on the data in your account.
• Review – review your data for any issues or low-quality responses. You may need to remove this in order not to impact the analysis of the data.

A helping hand

If you are missing the skills, capacity or inclination to manage your research internally, Qualtrics Research Services can help. From design, to writing the survey based on your needs, to help with survey programming, to handling the reporting, Research Services acts as an extension of the team and can help wherever necessary.

Secondary market research can be taken from a variety of places. Some data is completely free to access – other information could end up costing hundreds of thousands of dollars. There are three broad categories of secondary research sources:

• Public sources – these sources are accessible to anyone who asks for them. They include census data, market statistics, library catalogs, university libraries and more. Other organizations may also put out free data from time to time with the goal of advancing a cause, or catching people’s attention.
• Internal sources – sometimes the most valuable sources of data already exist somewhere within your organization. Internal sources can be preferable for secondary research on account of their price (free) and unique findings. Since internal sources are not accessible by competitors, using them can provide a distinct competitive advantage.
• Commercial sources – if you have money for it, the easiest way to acquire secondary market research is to simply buy it from private companies. Many organizations exist for the sole purpose of doing market research and can provide reliable, in-depth, industry-specific reports.

No matter where your research is coming from, it is important to ensure that the source is reputable and reliable so you can be confident in the conclusions you draw from it.

How do you know if a source is reliable?

Use established and well-known research publishers, such as the XM Institute , Forrester and McKinsey . Government websites also publish research and this is free of charge. By taking the information directly from the source (rather than a third party) you are minimizing the risk of the data being misinterpreted and the message or insights being acted on out of context.

How to apply secondary research

The purpose and application of secondary research will vary depending on your circumstances. Often, secondary research is used to support primary research and therefore give you greater confidence in your conclusions. However, there may be circumstances that prevent this – such as the timeframe and budget of the project.

Keep an open mind when collecting all the relevant research so that there isn’t any collection bias. Then begin analyzing the conclusions formed to see if any trends start to appear. This will help you to draw a consensus from the secondary research overall.

Market research success is defined by the impact it has on your business’s success. Make sure it’s not discarded or ignored by communicating your findings effectively. Here are some tips on how to do it.

• Less is more – Preface your market research report with executive summaries that highlight your key discoveries and their implications
• Lead with the basic information – Share the top 4-5 recommendations in bullet-point form, rather than requiring your readers to go through pages of analysis and data
• Model the impact – Provide examples and model the impact of any changes you put in place based on your findings
• Show, don’t tell – Add illustrative examples that relate directly to the research findings and emphasize specific points
• Speed is of the essence – Make data available in real-time so it can be rapidly incorporated into strategies and acted upon to maximize value
• Work with experts – Make sure you’ve access to a dedicated team of experts ready to help you design and launch successful projects

Trusted by 8,500 brands for everything from product testing to competitor analysis, Our Strategic Research software is the world’s most powerful and flexible research platform . With over 100 question types and advanced logic, you can build out your surveys and see real-time data you can share across the organization. Plus, you’ll be able to turn data into insights with iQ, our predictive intelligence engine that runs complicated analysis at the click of a button.

Related resources

Market intelligence 10 min read, marketing insights 11 min read, ethnographic research 11 min read, qualitative vs quantitative research 13 min read, qualitative research questions 11 min read, qualitative research design 12 min read, primary vs secondary research 14 min read, request demo.

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• Knowledge Base

Methodology

• How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Steps & Examples

How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Steps & Examples

Published on May 6, 2022 by Shona McCombes . Revised on November 20, 2023.

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by scientific research. If you want to test a relationship between two or more variables, you need to write hypotheses before you start your experiment or data collection .

Example: Hypothesis

Daily apple consumption leads to fewer doctor’s visits.

Table of contents

What is a hypothesis, developing a hypothesis (with example), hypothesis examples, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about writing hypotheses.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Variables in hypotheses

Hypotheses propose a relationship between two or more types of variables .

• An independent variable is something the researcher changes or controls.
• A dependent variable is something the researcher observes and measures.

If there are any control variables , extraneous variables , or confounding variables , be sure to jot those down as you go to minimize the chances that research bias  will affect your results.

In this example, the independent variable is exposure to the sun – the assumed cause . The dependent variable is the level of happiness – the assumed effect .

Prevent plagiarism. Run a free check.

Step 1. ask a question.

Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your project.

Step 2. Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to ensure that you’re embarking on a relevant topic . This can also help you identify which variables you will study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have to operationalize more complex constructs.

Step 3. Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.

4. Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:

• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in  if…then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between variables.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to find between them.

6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing , you will also have to write a null hypothesis . The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0 , while the alternative hypothesis is H 1 or H a .

• H 0 : The number of lectures attended by first-year students has no effect on their final exam scores.
• H 1 : The number of lectures attended by first-year students has a positive effect on their final exam scores.

If you want to know more about the research process , methodology , research bias , or statistics , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Sampling methods
• Simple random sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Cluster sampling
• Likert scales
• Reproducibility

 Statistics

• Null hypothesis
• Statistical power
• Probability distribution
• Effect size
• Poisson distribution

Research bias

• Optimism bias
• Cognitive bias
• Implicit bias
• Hawthorne effect
• Anchoring bias
• Explicit bias

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A hypothesis is not just a guess — it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations and statistical analysis of data).

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

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What Is A Research (Scientific) Hypothesis? A plain-language explainer + examples

By:  Derek Jansen (MBA)  | Reviewed By: Dr Eunice Rautenbach | June 2020

If you’re new to the world of research, or it’s your first time writing a dissertation or thesis, you’re probably noticing that the words “research hypothesis” and “scientific hypothesis” are used quite a bit, and you’re wondering what they mean in a research context .

“Hypothesis” is one of those words that people use loosely, thinking they understand what it means. However, it has a very specific meaning within academic research. So, it’s important to understand the exact meaning before you start hypothesizing. 

Research Hypothesis 101

• What is a hypothesis ?
• What is a research hypothesis (scientific hypothesis)?
• Requirements for a research hypothesis
• Definition of a research hypothesis
• The null hypothesis

What is a hypothesis?

Let’s start with the general definition of a hypothesis (not a research hypothesis or scientific hypothesis), according to the Cambridge Dictionary:

Hypothesis: an idea or explanation for something that is based on known facts but has not yet been proved.

In other words, it’s a statement that provides an explanation for why or how something works, based on facts (or some reasonable assumptions), but that has not yet been specifically tested . For example, a hypothesis might look something like this:

Hypothesis: sleep impacts academic performance.

This statement predicts that academic performance will be influenced by the amount and/or quality of sleep a student engages in – sounds reasonable, right? It’s based on reasonable assumptions , underpinned by what we currently know about sleep and health (from the existing literature). So, loosely speaking, we could call it a hypothesis, at least by the dictionary definition.

But that’s not good enough…

Unfortunately, that’s not quite sophisticated enough to describe a research hypothesis (also sometimes called a scientific hypothesis), and it wouldn’t be acceptable in a dissertation, thesis or research paper . In the world of academic research, a statement needs a few more criteria to constitute a true research hypothesis .

What is a research hypothesis?

A research hypothesis (also called a scientific hypothesis) is a statement about the expected outcome of a study (for example, a dissertation or thesis). To constitute a quality hypothesis, the statement needs to have three attributes – specificity , clarity and testability .

Let’s take a look at these more closely.

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Hypothesis Essential #1: Specificity & Clarity

A good research hypothesis needs to be extremely clear and articulate about both what’ s being assessed (who or what variables are involved ) and the expected outcome (for example, a difference between groups, a relationship between variables, etc.).

Let’s stick with our sleepy students example and look at how this statement could be more specific and clear.

Hypothesis: Students who sleep at least 8 hours per night will, on average, achieve higher grades in standardised tests than students who sleep less than 8 hours a night.

As you can see, the statement is very specific as it identifies the variables involved (sleep hours and test grades), the parties involved (two groups of students), as well as the predicted relationship type (a positive relationship). There’s no ambiguity or uncertainty about who or what is involved in the statement, and the expected outcome is clear.

Contrast that to the original hypothesis we looked at – “Sleep impacts academic performance” – and you can see the difference. “Sleep” and “academic performance” are both comparatively vague , and there’s no indication of what the expected relationship direction is (more sleep or less sleep). As you can see, specificity and clarity are key.

Hypothesis Essential #2: Testability (Provability)

A statement must be testable to qualify as a research hypothesis. In other words, there needs to be a way to prove (or disprove) the statement. If it’s not testable, it’s not a hypothesis – simple as that.

For example, consider the hypothesis we mentioned earlier:

Hypothesis: Students who sleep at least 8 hours per night will, on average, achieve higher grades in standardised tests than students who sleep less than 8 hours a night.  

We could test this statement by undertaking a quantitative study involving two groups of students, one that gets 8 or more hours of sleep per night for a fixed period, and one that gets less. We could then compare the standardised test results for both groups to see if there’s a statistically significant difference. 

Again, if you compare this to the original hypothesis we looked at – “Sleep impacts academic performance” – you can see that it would be quite difficult to test that statement, primarily because it isn’t specific enough. How much sleep? By who? What type of academic performance?

So, remember the mantra – if you can’t test it, it’s not a hypothesis 🙂

Defining A Research Hypothesis

You’re still with us? Great! Let’s recap and pin down a clear definition of a hypothesis.

A research hypothesis (or scientific hypothesis) is a statement about an expected relationship between variables, or explanation of an occurrence, that is clear, specific and testable.

So, when you write up hypotheses for your dissertation or thesis, make sure that they meet all these criteria. If you do, you’ll not only have rock-solid hypotheses but you’ll also ensure a clear focus for your entire research project.

What about the null hypothesis?

You may have also heard the terms null hypothesis , alternative hypothesis, or H-zero thrown around. At a simple level, the null hypothesis is the counter-proposal to the original hypothesis.

For example, if the hypothesis predicts that there is a relationship between two variables (for example, sleep and academic performance), the null hypothesis would predict that there is no relationship between those variables.

At a more technical level, the null hypothesis proposes that no statistical significance exists in a set of given observations and that any differences are due to chance alone.

And there you have it – hypotheses in a nutshell. 

If you have any questions, be sure to leave a comment below and we’ll do our best to help you. If you need hands-on help developing and testing your hypotheses, consider our private coaching service , where we hold your hand through the research journey.

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This post was based on one of our popular Research Bootcamps . If you're working on a research project, you'll definitely want to check this out ...

17 Comments

Very useful information. I benefit more from getting more information in this regard.

Very great insight,educative and informative. Please give meet deep critics on many research data of public international Law like human rights, environment, natural resources, law of the sea etc

In a book I read a distinction is made between null, research, and alternative hypothesis. As far as I understand, alternative and research hypotheses are the same. Can you please elaborate? Best Afshin

This is a self explanatory, easy going site. I will recommend this to my friends and colleagues.

Very good definition. How can I cite your definition in my thesis? Thank you. Is nul hypothesis compulsory in a research?

It’s a counter-proposal to be proven as a rejection

Please what is the difference between alternate hypothesis and research hypothesis?

It is a very good explanation. However, it limits hypotheses to statistically tasteable ideas. What about for qualitative researches or other researches that involve quantitative data that don’t need statistical tests?

In qualitative research, one typically uses propositions, not hypotheses.

could you please elaborate it more

I’ve benefited greatly from these notes, thank you.

This is very helpful

well articulated ideas are presented here, thank you for being reliable sources of information

Excellent. Thanks for being clear and sound about the research methodology and hypothesis (quantitative research)

I have only a simple question regarding the null hypothesis. – Is the null hypothesis (Ho) known as the reversible hypothesis of the alternative hypothesis (H1? – How to test it in academic research?

this is very important note help me much more

Hi” best wishes to you and your very nice blog” 

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10.2 Steps in the Marketing Research Process

Learning objective.

• Describe the basic steps in the marketing research process and the purpose of each step.

The basic steps used to conduct marketing research are shown in Figure 10.6 “Steps in the Marketing Research Process” . Next, we discuss each step.

Figure 10.6 Steps in the Marketing Research Process

Step 1: Define the Problem (or Opportunity)

There’s a saying in marketing research that a problem half defined is a problem half solved. Defining the “problem” of the research sounds simple, doesn’t it? Suppose your product is tutoring other students in a subject you’re a whiz at. You have been tutoring for a while, and people have begun to realize you’re darned good at it. Then, suddenly, your business drops off. Or it explodes, and you can’t cope with the number of students you’re being asked help. If the business has exploded, should you try to expand your services? Perhaps you should subcontract with some other “whiz” students. You would send them students to be tutored, and they would give you a cut of their pay for each student you referred to them.

Both of these scenarios would be a problem for you, wouldn’t they? They are problems insofar as they cause you headaches. But are they really the problem? Or are they the symptoms of something bigger? For example, maybe your business has dropped off because your school is experiencing financial trouble and has lowered the number of scholarships given to incoming freshmen. Consequently, there are fewer total students on campus who need your services. Conversely, if you’re swamped with people who want you to tutor them, perhaps your school awarded more scholarships than usual, so there are a greater number of students who need your services. Alternately, perhaps you ran an ad in your school’s college newspaper, and that led to the influx of students wanting you to tutor them.

Businesses are in the same boat you are as a tutor. They take a look at symptoms and try to drill down to the potential causes. If you approach a marketing research company with either scenario—either too much or too little business—the firm will seek more information from you such as the following:

• In what semester(s) did your tutoring revenues fall (or rise)?
• In what subject areas did your tutoring revenues fall (or rise)?
• In what sales channels did revenues fall (or rise): Were there fewer (or more) referrals from professors or other students? Did the ad you ran result in fewer (or more) referrals this month than in the past months?
• Among what demographic groups did your revenues fall (or rise)—women or men, people with certain majors, or first-year, second-, third-, or fourth-year students?

The key is to look at all potential causes so as to narrow the parameters of the study to the information you actually need to make a good decision about how to fix your business if revenues have dropped or whether or not to expand it if your revenues have exploded.

The next task for the researcher is to put into writing the research objective. The research objective is the goal(s) the research is supposed to accomplish. The marketing research objective for your tutoring business might read as follows:

To survey college professors who teach 100- and 200-level math courses to determine why the number of students referred for tutoring dropped in the second semester.

This is admittedly a simple example designed to help you understand the basic concept. If you take a marketing research course, you will learn that research objectives get a lot more complicated than this. The following is an example:

“To gather information from a sample representative of the U.S. population among those who are ‘very likely’ to purchase an automobile within the next 6 months, which assesses preferences (measured on a 1–5 scale ranging from ‘very likely to buy’ to ‘not likely at all to buy’) for the model diesel at three different price levels. Such data would serve as input into a forecasting model that would forecast unit sales, by geographic regions of the country, for each combination of the model’s different prices and fuel configurations (Burns & Bush, 2010).”

Now do you understand why defining the problem is complicated and half the battle? Many a marketing research effort is doomed from the start because the problem was improperly defined. Coke’s ill-fated decision to change the formula of Coca-Cola in 1985 is a case in point: Pepsi had been creeping up on Coke in terms of market share over the years as well as running a successful promotional campaign called the “Pepsi Challenge,” in which consumers were encouraged to do a blind taste test to see if they agreed that Pepsi was better. Coke spent four years researching “the problem.” Indeed, people seemed to like the taste of Pepsi better in blind taste tests. Thus, the formula for Coke was changed. But the outcry among the public was so great that the new formula didn’t last long—a matter of months—before the old formula was reinstated. Some marketing experts believe Coke incorrectly defined the problem as “How can we beat Pepsi in taste tests?” instead of “How can we gain market share against Pepsi?” (Burns & Bush, 2010)

New Coke Is It! 1985

(click to see video)

This video documents the Coca-Cola Company’s ill-fated launch of New Coke in 1985.

1985 Pepsi Commercial—“They Changed My Coke”

This video shows how Pepsi tried to capitalize on the blunder.

Step 2: Design the Research

The next step in the marketing research process is to do a research design. The research design is your “plan of attack.” It outlines what data you are going to gather and from whom, how and when you will collect the data, and how you will analyze it once it’s been obtained. Let’s look at the data you’re going to gather first.

There are two basic types of data you can gather. The first is primary data. Primary data is information you collect yourself, using hands-on tools such as interviews or surveys, specifically for the research project you’re conducting. Secondary data is data that has already been collected by someone else, or data you have already collected for another purpose. Collecting primary data is more time consuming, work intensive, and expensive than collecting secondary data. Consequently, you should always try to collect secondary data first to solve your research problem, if you can. A great deal of research on a wide variety of topics already exists. If this research contains the answer to your question, there is no need for you to replicate it. Why reinvent the wheel?

Sources of Secondary Data

Your company’s internal records are a source of secondary data. So are any data you collect as part of your marketing intelligence gathering efforts. You can also purchase syndicated research. Syndicated research is primary data that marketing research firms collect on a regular basis and sell to other companies. J.D. Power & Associates is a provider of syndicated research. The company conducts independent, unbiased surveys of customer satisfaction, product quality, and buyer behavior for various industries. The company is best known for its research in the automobile sector. One of the best-known sellers of syndicated research is the Nielsen Company, which produces the Nielsen ratings. The Nielsen ratings measure the size of television, radio, and newspaper audiences in various markets. You have probably read or heard about TV shows that get the highest (Nielsen) ratings. (Arbitron does the same thing for radio ratings.) Nielsen, along with its main competitor, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), also sells businesses scanner-based research . Scanner-based research is information collected by scanners at checkout stands in stores. Each week Nielsen and IRI collect information on the millions of purchases made at stores. The companies then compile the information and sell it to firms in various industries that subscribe to their services. The Nielsen Company has also recently teamed up with Facebook to collect marketing research information. Via Facebook, users will see surveys in some of the spaces in which they used to see online ads (Rappeport, Gelles, 2009).

By contrast, MarketResearch.com is an example of a marketing research aggregator. A marketing research aggregator is a marketing research company that doesn’t conduct its own research and sell it. Instead, it buys research reports from other marketing research companies and then sells the reports in their entirety or in pieces to other firms. Check out MarketResearch.com’s Web site. As you will see there are a huge number of studies in every category imaginable that you can buy for relatively small amounts of money.

Figure 10.7

Market research aggregators buy research reports from other marketing research companies and then resell them in part or in whole to other companies so they don’t have to gather primary data.

Source: http://www.marketresearch.com .

Your local library is a good place to gather free secondary data. It has searchable databases as well as handbooks, dictionaries, and books, some of which you can access online. Government agencies also collect and report information on demographics, economic and employment data, health information, and balance-of-trade statistics, among a lot of other information. The U.S. Census Bureau collects census data every ten years to gather information about who lives where. Basic demographic information about sex, age, race, and types of housing in which people live in each U.S. state, metropolitan area, and rural area is gathered so that population shifts can be tracked for various purposes, including determining the number of legislators each state should have in the U.S. House of Representatives. For the U.S. government, this is primary data. For marketing managers it is an important source of secondary data.

The Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan also conducts periodic surveys and publishes information about trends in the United States. One research study the center continually conducts is called the “Changing Lives of American Families” ( http://www.isr.umich.edu/home/news/research-update/2007-01.pdf ). This is important research data for marketing managers monitoring consumer trends in the marketplace. The World Bank and the United Nations are two international organizations that collect a great deal of information. Their Web sites contain many free research studies and data related to global markets. Table 10.1 “Examples of Primary Data Sources versus Secondary Data Sources” shows some examples of primary versus secondary data sources.

Table 10.1 Examples of Primary Data Sources versus Secondary Data Sources

Gauging the Quality of Secondary Data

When you are gathering secondary information, it’s always good to be a little skeptical of it. Sometimes studies are commissioned to produce the result a client wants to hear—or wants the public to hear. For example, throughout the twentieth century, numerous studies found that smoking was good for people’s health. The problem was the studies were commissioned by the tobacco industry. Web research can also pose certain hazards. There are many biased sites that try to fool people that they are providing good data. Often the data is favorable to the products they are trying to sell. Beware of product reviews as well. Unscrupulous sellers sometimes get online and create bogus ratings for products. See below for questions you can ask to help gauge the credibility of secondary information.

Gauging the Credibility of Secondary Data: Questions to Ask

• Who gathered this information?
• For what purpose?
• What does the person or organization that gathered the information have to gain by doing so?
• Was the information gathered and reported in a systematic manner?
• Is the source of the information accepted as an authority by other experts in the field?
• Does the article provide objective evidence to support the position presented?

Types of Research Design

Now let’s look specifically at the types of research designs that are utilized. By understanding different types of research designs, a researcher can solve a client’s problems more quickly and efficiently without jumping through more hoops than necessary. Research designs fall into one of the following three categories:

• Exploratory research design
• Descriptive research design
• Causal research design (experiments)

An exploratory research design is useful when you are initially investigating a problem but you haven’t defined it well enough to do an in-depth study of it. Perhaps via your regular market intelligence, you have spotted what appears to be a new opportunity in the marketplace. You would then do exploratory research to investigate it further and “get your feet wet,” as the saying goes. Exploratory research is less structured than other types of research, and secondary data is often utilized.

One form of exploratory research is qualitative research. Qualitative research is any form of research that includes gathering data that is not quantitative, and often involves exploring questions such as why as much as what or how much . Different forms, such as depth interviews and focus group interviews, are common in marketing research.

The depth interview —engaging in detailed, one-on-one, question-and-answer sessions with potential buyers—is an exploratory research technique. However, unlike surveys, the people being interviewed aren’t asked a series of standard questions. Instead the interviewer is armed with some general topics and asks questions that are open ended, meaning that they allow the interviewee to elaborate. “How did you feel about the product after you purchased it?” is an example of a question that might be asked. A depth interview also allows a researcher to ask logical follow-up questions such as “Can you tell me what you mean when you say you felt uncomfortable using the service?” or “Can you give me some examples?” to help dig further and shed additional light on the research problem. Depth interviews can be conducted in person or over the phone. The interviewer either takes notes or records the interview.

Focus groups and case studies are often utilized for exploratory research as well. A focus group is a group of potential buyers who are brought together to discuss a marketing research topic with one another. A moderator is used to focus the discussion, the sessions are recorded, and the main points of consensus are later summarized by the market researcher. Textbook publishers often gather groups of professors at educational conferences to participate in focus groups. However, focus groups can also be conducted on the telephone, in online chat rooms, or both, using meeting software like WebEx. The basic steps of conducting a focus group are outlined below.

The Basic Steps of Conducting a Focus Group

• Establish the objectives of the focus group. What is its purpose?
• Identify the people who will participate in the focus group. What makes them qualified to participate? How many of them will you need and what they will be paid?
• Obtain contact information for the participants and send out invitations (usually e-mails are most efficient).
• Develop a list of questions.
• Choose a facilitator.
• Choose a location in which to hold the focus group and the method by which it will be recorded.
• Conduct the focus group. If the focus group is not conducted electronically, include name tags for the participants, pens and notepads, any materials the participants need to see, and refreshments. Record participants’ responses.
• Summarize the notes from the focus group and write a report for management.

A case study looks at how another company solved the problem that’s being researched. Sometimes multiple cases, or companies, are used in a study. Case studies nonetheless have a mixed reputation. Some researchers believe it’s hard to generalize, or apply, the results of a case study to other companies. Nonetheless, collecting information about companies that encountered the same problems your firm is facing can give you a certain amount of insight about what direction you should take. In fact, one way to begin a research project is to carefully study a successful product or service.

Two other types of qualitative data used for exploratory research are ethnographies and projective techniques. In an ethnography , researchers interview, observe, and often videotape people while they work, live, shop, and play. The Walt Disney Company has recently begun using ethnographers to uncover the likes and dislikes of boys aged six to fourteen, a financially attractive market segment for Disney, but one in which the company has been losing market share. The ethnographers visit the homes of boys, observe the things they have in their rooms to get a sense of their hobbies, and accompany them and their mothers when they shop to see where they go, what the boys are interested in, and what they ultimately buy. (The children get seventy-five dollars out of the deal, incidentally.) (Barnes, 2009)

Projective techniques are used to reveal information research respondents might not reveal by being asked directly. Asking a person to complete sentences such as the following is one technique:

People who buy Coach handbags __________.

(Will he or she reply with “are cool,” “are affluent,” or “are pretentious,” for example?)

KFC’s grilled chicken is ______.

Or the person might be asked to finish a story that presents a certain scenario. Word associations are also used to discern people’s underlying attitudes toward goods and services. Using a word-association technique, a market researcher asks a person to say or write the first word that comes to his or her mind in response to another word. If the initial word is “fast food,” what word does the person associate it with or respond with? Is it “McDonald’s”? If many people reply that way, and you’re conducting research for Burger King, that could indicate Burger King has a problem. However, if the research is being conducted for Wendy’s, which recently began running an advertising campaign to the effect that Wendy’s offerings are “better than fast food,” it could indicate that the campaign is working.

Completing cartoons is yet another type of projective technique. It’s similar to finishing a sentence or story, only with the pictures. People are asked to look at a cartoon such as the one shown in Figure 10.8 “Example of a Cartoon-Completion Projective Technique” . One of the characters in the picture will have made a statement, and the person is asked to fill in the empty cartoon “bubble” with how they think the second character will respond.

Figure 10.8 Example of a Cartoon-Completion Projective Technique

In some cases, your research might end with exploratory research. Perhaps you have discovered your organization lacks the resources needed to produce the product. In other cases, you might decide you need more in-depth, quantitative research such as descriptive research or causal research, which are discussed next. Most marketing research professionals advise using both types of research, if it’s feasible. On the one hand, the qualitative-type research used in exploratory research is often considered too “lightweight.” Remember earlier in the chapter when we discussed telephone answering machines and the hit TV sitcom Seinfeld ? Both product ideas were initially rejected by focus groups. On the other hand, relying solely on quantitative information often results in market research that lacks ideas.

The Stone Wheel—What One Focus Group Said

Watch the video to see a funny spoof on the usefulness—or lack of usefulness—of focus groups.

Descriptive Research

Anything that can be observed and counted falls into the category of descriptive research design. A study using a descriptive research design involves gathering hard numbers, often via surveys, to describe or measure a phenomenon so as to answer the questions of who , what , where , when , and how . “On a scale of 1–5, how satisfied were you with your service?” is a question that illustrates the information a descriptive research design is supposed to capture.

Physiological measurements also fall into the category of descriptive design. Physiological measurements measure people’s involuntary physical responses to marketing stimuli, such as an advertisement. Elsewhere, we explained that researchers have gone so far as to scan the brains of consumers to see what they really think about products versus what they say about them. Eye tracking is another cutting-edge type of physiological measurement. It involves recording the movements of a person’s eyes when they look at some sort of stimulus, such as a banner ad or a Web page. The Walt Disney Company has a research facility in Austin, Texas, that it uses to take physical measurements of viewers when they see Disney programs and advertisements. The facility measures three types of responses: people’s heart rates, skin changes, and eye movements (eye tracking) (Spangler, 2009).

Figure 10.9

A woman shows off her headgear for an eye-tracking study. The gear’s not exactly a fashion statement but . . .

lawrencegs – Google Glass – CC BY 2.0.

A strictly descriptive research design instrument—a survey, for example—can tell you how satisfied your customers are. It can’t, however, tell you why. Nor can an eye-tracking study tell you why people’s eyes tend to dwell on certain types of banner ads—only that they do. To answer “why” questions an exploratory research design or causal research design is needed (Wagner, 2007).

Causal Research

Causal research design examines cause-and-effect relationships. Using a causal research design allows researchers to answer “what if” types of questions. In other words, if a firm changes X (say, a product’s price, design, placement, or advertising), what will happen to Y (say, sales or customer loyalty)? To conduct causal research, the researcher designs an experiment that “controls,” or holds constant, all of a product’s marketing elements except one (or using advanced techniques of research, a few elements can be studied at the same time). The one variable is changed, and the effect is then measured. Sometimes the experiments are conducted in a laboratory using a simulated setting designed to replicate the conditions buyers would experience. Or the experiments may be conducted in a virtual computer setting.

You might think setting up an experiment in a virtual world such as the online game Second Life would be a viable way to conduct controlled marketing research. Some companies have tried to use Second Life for this purpose, but the results have been somewhat mixed as to whether or not it is a good medium for marketing research. The German marketing research firm Komjuniti was one of the first “real-world” companies to set up an “island” in Second Life upon which it could conduct marketing research. However, with so many other attractive fantasy islands in which to play, the company found it difficult to get Second Life residents, or players, to voluntarily visit the island and stay long enough so meaningful research could be conducted. (Plus, the “residents,” or players, in Second Life have been known to protest corporations invading their world. When the German firm Komjuniti created an island in Second Life to conduct marketing research, the residents showed up waving signs and threatening to boycott the island.) (Wagner, 2007)

Why is being able to control the setting so important? Let’s say you are an American flag manufacturer and you are working with Walmart to conduct an experiment to see where in its stores American flags should be placed so as to increase their sales. Then the terrorist attacks of 9/11 occur. In the days afterward, sales skyrocketed—people bought flags no matter where they were displayed. Obviously, the terrorist attacks in the United States would have skewed the experiment’s data.

An experiment conducted in a natural setting such as a store is referred to as a field experiment . Companies sometimes do field experiments either because it is more convenient or because they want to see if buyers will behave the same way in the “real world” as in a laboratory or on a computer. The place the experiment is conducted or the demographic group of people the experiment is administered to is considered the test market . Before a large company rolls out a product to the entire marketplace, it will often place the offering in a test market to see how well it will be received. For example, to compete with MillerCoors’ sixty-four-calorie beer MGD 64, Anheuser-Busch recently began testing its Select 55 beer in certain cities around the country (McWilliams, 2009).

Figure 10.10

Select 55 beer: Coming soon to a test market near you? (If you’re on a diet, you have to hope so!)

Martine – Le champagne – CC BY-NC 2.0.

Many companies use experiments to test all of their marketing communications. For example, the online discount retailer O.co (formerly called Overstock.com) carefully tests all of its marketing offers and tracks the results of each one. One study the company conducted combined twenty-six different variables related to offers e-mailed to several thousand customers. The study resulted in a decision to send a group of e-mails to different segments. The company then tracked the results of the sales generated to see if they were in line with the earlier experiment it had conducted that led it to make the offer.

Step 3: Design the Data-Collection Forms

If the behavior of buyers is being formally observed, and a number of different researchers are conducting observations, the data obviously need to be recorded on a standardized data-collection form that’s either paper or electronic. Otherwise, the data collected will not be comparable. The items on the form could include a shopper’s sex; his or her approximate age; whether the person seemed hurried, moderately hurried, or unhurried; and whether or not he or she read the label on products, used coupons, and so forth.

The same is true when it comes to surveying people with questionnaires. Surveying people is one of the most commonly used techniques to collect quantitative data. Surveys are popular because they can be easily administered to large numbers of people fairly quickly. However, to produce the best results, the questionnaire for the survey needs to be carefully designed.

Questionnaire Design

Most questionnaires follow a similar format: They begin with an introduction describing what the study is for, followed by instructions for completing the questionnaire and, if necessary, returning it to the market researcher. The first few questions that appear on the questionnaire are usually basic, warm-up type of questions the respondent can readily answer, such as the respondent’s age, level of education, place of residence, and so forth. The warm-up questions are then followed by a logical progression of more detailed, in-depth questions that get to the heart of the question being researched. Lastly, the questionnaire wraps up with a statement that thanks the respondent for participating in the survey and information and explains when and how they will be paid for participating. To see some examples of questionnaires and how they are laid out, click on the following link: http://cas.uah.edu/wrenb/mkt343/Project/Sample%20Questionnaires.htm .

How the questions themselves are worded is extremely important. It’s human nature for respondents to want to provide the “correct” answers to the person administering the survey, so as to seem agreeable. Therefore, there is always a hazard that people will try to tell you what you want to hear on a survey. Consequently, care needs to be taken that the survey questions are written in an unbiased, neutral way. In other words, they shouldn’t lead a person taking the questionnaire to answer a question one way or another by virtue of the way you have worded it. The following is an example of a leading question.

Don’t you agree that teachers should be paid more ?

The questions also need to be clear and unambiguous. Consider the following question:

Which brand of toothpaste do you use ?

The question sounds clear enough, but is it really? What if the respondent recently switched brands? What if she uses Crest at home, but while away from home or traveling, she uses Colgate’s Wisp portable toothpaste-and-brush product? How will the respondent answer the question? Rewording the question as follows so it’s more specific will help make the question clearer:

Which brand of toothpaste have you used at home in the past six months? If you have used more than one brand, please list each of them 1 .

Sensitive questions have to be asked carefully. For example, asking a respondent, “Do you consider yourself a light, moderate, or heavy drinker?” can be tricky. Few people want to admit to being heavy drinkers. You can “soften” the question by including a range of answers, as the following example shows:

How many alcoholic beverages do you consume in a week ?

• __0–5 alcoholic beverages
• __5–10 alcoholic beverages
• __10–15 alcoholic beverages

Many people don’t like to answer questions about their income levels. Asking them to specify income ranges rather than divulge their actual incomes can help.

Other research question “don’ts” include using jargon and acronyms that could confuse people. “How often do you IM?” is an example. Also, don’t muddy the waters by asking two questions in the same question, something researchers refer to as a double-barreled question . “Do you think parents should spend more time with their children and/or their teachers?” is an example of a double-barreled question.

Open-ended questions , or questions that ask respondents to elaborate, can be included. However, they are harder to tabulate than closed-ended questions , or questions that limit a respondent’s answers. Multiple-choice and yes-and-no questions are examples of closed-ended questions.

Testing the Questionnaire

You have probably heard the phrase “garbage in, garbage out.” If the questions are bad, the information gathered will be bad, too. One way to make sure you don’t end up with garbage is to test the questionnaire before sending it out to find out if there are any problems with it. Is there enough space for people to elaborate on open-ended questions? Is the font readable? To test the questionnaire, marketing research professionals first administer it to a number of respondents face to face. This gives the respondents the chance to ask the researcher about questions or instructions that are unclear or don’t make sense to them. The researcher then administers the questionnaire to a small subset of respondents in the actual way the survey is going to be disseminated, whether it’s delivered via phone, in person, by mail, or online.

Getting people to participate and complete questionnaires can be difficult. If the questionnaire is too long or hard to read, many people won’t complete it. So, by all means, eliminate any questions that aren’t necessary. Of course, including some sort of monetary incentive for completing the survey can increase the number of completed questionnaires a market researcher will receive.

Step 4: Specify the Sample

Once you have created your questionnaire or other marketing study, how do you figure out who should participate in it? Obviously, you can’t survey or observe all potential buyers in the marketplace. Instead, you must choose a sample. A sample is a subset of potential buyers that are representative of your entire target market, or population being studied. Sometimes market researchers refer to the population as the universe to reflect the fact that it includes the entire target market, whether it consists of a million people, a hundred thousand, a few hundred, or a dozen. “All unmarried people over the age of eighteen who purchased Dirt Devil steam cleaners in the United States during 2011” is an example of a population that has been defined.

Obviously, the population has to be defined correctly. Otherwise, you will be studying the wrong group of people. Not defining the population correctly can result in flawed research, or sampling error. A sampling error is any type of marketing research mistake that results because a sample was utilized. One criticism of Internet surveys is that the people who take these surveys don’t really represent the overall population. On average, Internet survey takers tend to be more educated and tech savvy. Consequently, if they solely constitute your population, even if you screen them for certain criteria, the data you collect could end up being skewed.

The next step is to put together the sampling frame , which is the list from which the sample is drawn. The sampling frame can be put together using a directory, customer list, or membership roster (Wrenn et. al., 2007). Keep in mind that the sampling frame won’t perfectly match the population. Some people will be included on the list who shouldn’t be. Other people who should be included will be inadvertently omitted. It’s no different than if you were to conduct a survey of, say, 25 percent of your friends, using friends’ names you have in your cell phone. Most of your friends’ names are likely to be programmed into your phone, but not all of them. As a result, a certain degree of sampling error always occurs.

There are two main categories of samples in terms of how they are drawn: probability samples and nonprobability samples. A probability sample is one in which each would-be participant has a known and equal chance of being selected. The chance is known because the total number of people in the sampling frame is known. For example, if every other person from the sampling frame were chosen, each person would have a 50 percent chance of being selected.

A nonprobability sample is any type of sample that’s not drawn in a systematic way. So the chances of each would-be participant being selected can’t be known. A convenience sample is one type of nonprobability sample. It is a sample a researcher draws because it’s readily available and convenient to do so. Surveying people on the street as they pass by is an example of a convenience sample. The question is, are these people representative of the target market?

For example, suppose a grocery store needed to quickly conduct some research on shoppers to get ready for an upcoming promotion. Now suppose that the researcher assigned to the project showed up between the hours of 10 a.m. and 12 p.m. on a weekday and surveyed as many shoppers as possible. The problem is that the shoppers wouldn’t be representative of the store’s entire target market. What about commuters who stop at the store before and after work? Their views wouldn’t be represented. Neither would people who work the night shift or shop at odd hours. As a result, there would be a lot of room for sampling error in this study. For this reason, studies that use nonprobability samples aren’t considered as accurate as studies that use probability samples. Nonprobability samples are more often used in exploratory research.

Lastly, the size of the sample has an effect on the amount of sampling error. Larger samples generally produce more accurate results. The larger your sample is, the more data you will have, which will give you a more complete picture of what you’re studying. However, the more people surveyed or studied, the more costly the research becomes.

Statistics can be used to determine a sample’s optimal size. If you take a marketing research or statistics class, you will learn more about how to determine the optimal size.

Of course, if you hire a marketing research company, much of this work will be taken care of for you. Many marketing research companies, like ResearchNow, maintain panels of prescreened people they draw upon for samples. In addition, the marketing research firm will be responsible for collecting the data or contracting with a company that specializes in data collection. Data collection is discussed next.

Step 5: Collect the Data

As we have explained, primary marketing research data can be gathered in a number of ways. Surveys, taking physical measurements, and observing people are just three of the ways we discussed. If you’re observing customers as part of gathering the data, keep in mind that if shoppers are aware of the fact, it can have an effect on their behavior. For example, if a customer shopping for feminine hygiene products in a supermarket aisle realizes she is being watched, she could become embarrassed and leave the aisle, which would adversely affect your data. To get around problems such as these, some companies set up cameras or two-way mirrors to observe customers. Organizations also hire mystery shoppers to work around the problem. A mystery shopper is someone who is paid to shop at a firm’s establishment or one of its competitors to observe the level of service, cleanliness of the facility, and so forth, and report his or her findings to the firm.

Make Extra Money as a Mystery Shopper

Watch the YouTube video to get an idea of how mystery shopping works.

Survey data can be collected in many different ways and combinations of ways. The following are the basic methods used:

• Face-to-face (can be computer aided)
• Telephone (can be computer aided or completely automated)
• Mail and hand delivery
• E-mail and the Web

A face-to-face survey is, of course, administered by a person. The surveys are conducted in public places such as in shopping malls, on the street, or in people’s homes if they have agreed to it. In years past, it was common for researchers in the United States to knock on people’s doors to gather survey data. However, randomly collected door-to-door interviews are less common today, partly because people are afraid of crime and are reluctant to give information to strangers (McDaniel & Gates, 1998).

Nonetheless, “beating the streets” is still a legitimate way questionnaire data is collected. When the U.S. Census Bureau collects data on the nation’s population, it hand delivers questionnaires to rural households that do not have street-name and house-number addresses. And Census Bureau workers personally survey the homeless to collect information about their numbers. Face-to-face surveys are also commonly used in third world countries to collect information from people who cannot read or lack phones and computers.

A plus of face-to-face surveys is that they allow researchers to ask lengthier, more complex questions because the people being surveyed can see and read the questionnaires. The same is true when a computer is utilized. For example, the researcher might ask the respondent to look at a list of ten retail stores and rank the stores from best to worst. The same question wouldn’t work so well over the telephone because the person couldn’t see the list. The question would have to be rewritten. Another drawback with telephone surveys is that even though federal and state “do not call” laws generally don’t prohibit companies from gathering survey information over the phone, people often screen such calls using answering machines and caller ID.

Probably the biggest drawback of both surveys conducted face-to-face and administered over the phone by a person is that they are labor intensive and therefore costly. Mailing out questionnaires is costly, too, and the response rates can be rather low. Think about why that might be so: if you receive a questionnaire in the mail, it is easy to throw it in the trash; it’s harder to tell a market researcher who approaches you on the street that you don’t want to be interviewed.

By contrast, gathering survey data collected by a computer, either over the telephone or on the Internet, can be very cost-effective and in some cases free. SurveyMonkey and Zoomerang are two Web sites that will allow you to create online questionnaires, e-mail them to up to one hundred people for free, and view the responses in real time as they come in. For larger surveys, you have to pay a subscription price of a few hundred dollars. But that still can be extremely cost-effective. The two Web sites also have a host of other features such as online-survey templates you can use to create your questionnaire, a way to set up automatic reminders sent to people who haven’t yet completed their surveys, and tools you can use to create graphics to put in your final research report. To see how easy it is to put together a survey in SurveyMonkey, click on the following link: http://help.surveymonkey.com/app/tutorials/detail/a_id/423 .

Like a face-to-face survey, an Internet survey can enable you to show buyers different visuals such as ads, pictures, and videos of products and their packaging. Web surveys are also fast, which is a major plus. Whereas face-to-face and mailed surveys often take weeks to collect, you can conduct a Web survey in a matter of days or even hours. And, of course, because the information is electronically gathered it can be automatically tabulated. You can also potentially reach a broader geographic group than you could if you had to personally interview people. The Zoomerang Web site allows you to create surveys in forty different languages.

Another plus for Web and computer surveys (and electronic phone surveys) is that there is less room for human error because the surveys are administered electronically. For instance, there’s no risk that the interviewer will ask a question wrong or use a tone of voice that could mislead the respondents. Respondents are also likely to feel more comfortable inputting the information into a computer if a question is sensitive than they would divulging the information to another person face-to-face or over the phone. Given all of these advantages, it’s not surprising that the Internet is quickly becoming the top way to collect primary data. However, like mail surveys, surveys sent to people over the Internet are easy to ignore.

Lastly, before the data collection process begins, the surveyors and observers need to be trained to look for the same things, ask questions the same way, and so forth. If they are using rankings or rating scales, they need to be “on the same page,” so to speak, as to what constitutes a high ranking or a low ranking. As an analogy, you have probably had some teachers grade your college papers harder than others. The goal of training is to avoid a wide disparity between how different observers and interviewers record the data.

Figure 10.11

Training people so they know what constitutes different ratings when they are collecting data will improve the quality of the information gathered in a marketing research study.

Ricardo Rodriquez – Satisfaction survey – CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

For example, if an observation form asks the observers to describe whether a shopper’s behavior is hurried, moderately hurried, or unhurried, they should be given an idea of what defines each rating. Does it depend on how much time the person spends in the store or in the individual aisles? How fast they walk? In other words, the criteria and ratings need to be spelled out.

Collecting International Marketing Research Data

Gathering marketing research data in foreign countries poses special challenges. However, that doesn’t stop firms from doing so. Marketing research companies are located all across the globe, in fact. Eight of the ten largest marketing research companies in the world are headquartered in the United States. However, five of these eight firms earn more of their revenues abroad than they do in the United States. There’s a reason for this: many U.S. markets were saturated, or tapped out, long ago in terms of the amount that they can grow. Coke is an example. As you learned earlier in the book, most of the Coca-Cola Company’s revenues are earned in markets abroad. To be sure, the United States is still a huge market when it comes to the revenues marketing research firms generate by conducting research in the country: in terms of their spending, American consumers fuel the world’s economic engine. Still, emerging countries with growing middle classes, such as China, India, and Brazil, are hot new markets companies want to tap.

What kind of challenges do firms face when trying to conduct marketing research abroad? As we explained, face-to-face surveys are commonly used in third world countries to collect information from people who cannot read or lack phones and computers. However, face-to-face surveys are also common in Europe, despite the fact that phones and computers are readily available. In-home surveys are also common in parts of Europe. By contrast, in some countries, including many Asian countries, it’s considered taboo or rude to try to gather information from strangers either face-to-face or over the phone. In many Muslim countries, women are forbidden to talk to strangers.

And how do you figure out whom to research in foreign countries? That in itself is a problem. In the United States, researchers often ask if they can talk to the heads of households to conduct marketing research. But in countries in which domestic servants or employees are common, the heads of households aren’t necessarily the principal shoppers; their domestic employees are (Malhotra).

Translating surveys is also an issue. Have you ever watched the TV comedians Jay Leno and David Letterman make fun of the English translations found on ethnic menus and products? Research tools such as surveys can suffer from the same problem. Hiring someone who is bilingual to translate a survey into another language can be a disaster if the person isn’t a native speaker of the language to which the survey is being translated.

One way companies try to deal with translation problems is by using back translation. When back translation is used, a native speaker translates the survey into the foreign language and then translates it back again to the original language to determine if there were gaps in meaning—that is, if anything was lost in translation. And it’s not just the language that’s an issue. If the research involves any visual images, they, too, could be a point of confusion. Certain colors, shapes, and symbols can have negative connotations in other countries. For example, the color white represents purity in many Western cultures, but in China, it is the color of death and mourning (Zouhali-Worrall, 2008). Also, look back at the cartoon-completion exercise in Figure 10.8 “Example of a Cartoon-Completion Projective Technique” . What would women in Muslim countries who aren’t allowed to converse with male sellers think of it? Chances are, the cartoon wouldn’t provide you with the information you’re seeking if Muslim women in some countries were asked to complete it.

One way marketing research companies are dealing with the complexities of global research is by merging with or acquiring marketing research companies abroad. The Nielsen Company is the largest marketing research company in the world. The firm operates in more than a hundred countries and employs more than forty thousand people. Many of its expansions have been the result of acquisitions and mergers.

Step 6: Analyze the Data

Step 6 involves analyzing the data to ensure it’s as accurate as possible. If the research is collected by hand using a pen and pencil, it’s entered into a computer. Or respondents might have already entered the information directly into a computer. For example, when Toyota goes to an event such as a car show, the automaker’s marketing personnel ask would-be buyers to complete questionnaires directly on computers. Companies are also beginning to experiment with software that can be used to collect data using mobile phones.

Once all the data is collected, the researchers begin the data cleaning , which is the process of removing data that have accidentally been duplicated (entered twice into the computer) or correcting data that have obviously been recorded wrong. A program such as Microsoft Excel or a statistical program such as Predictive Analytics Software (PASW, which was formerly known as SPSS) is then used to tabulate, or calculate, the basic results of the research, such as the total number of participants and how collectively they answered various questions. The programs can also be used to calculate averages, such as the average age of respondents, their average satisfaction, and so forth. The same can done for percentages, and other values you learned about, or will learn about, in a statistics course, such as the standard deviation, mean, and median for each question.

The information generated by the programs can be used to draw conclusions, such as what all customers might like or not like about an offering based on what the sample group liked or did not like. The information can also be used to spot differences among groups of people. For example, the research might show that people in one area of the country like the product better than people in another area. Trends to predict what might happen in the future can also be spotted.

If there are any open-ended questions respondents have elaborated upon—for example, “Explain why you like the current brand you use better than any other brand”—the answers to each are pasted together, one on top of another, so researchers can compare and summarize the information. As we have explained, qualitative information such as this can give you a fuller picture of the results of the research.

Part of analyzing the data is to see if it seems sound. Does the way in which the research was conducted seem sound? Was the sample size large enough? Are the conclusions that become apparent from it reasonable?

The two most commonly used criteria used to test the soundness of a study are (1) validity and (2) reliability. A study is valid if it actually tested what it was designed to test. For example, did the experiment you ran in Second Life test what it was designed to test? Did it reflect what could really happen in the real world? If not, the research isn’t valid. If you were to repeat the study, and get the same results (or nearly the same results), the research is said to be reliable . If you get a drastically different result if you repeat the study, it’s not reliable. The data collected, or at least some it, can also be compared to, or reconciled with, similar data from other sources either gathered by your firm or by another organization to see if the information seems on target.

Stage 7: Write the Research Report and Present Its Findings

If you end up becoming a marketing professional and conducting a research study after you graduate, hopefully you will do a great job putting the study together. You will have defined the problem correctly, chosen the right sample, collected the data accurately, analyzed it, and your findings will be sound. At that point, you will be required to write the research report and perhaps present it to an audience of decision makers. You will do so via a written report and, in some cases, a slide or PowerPoint presentation based on your written report.

The six basic elements of a research report are as follows.

• Title Page . The title page explains what the report is about, when it was conducted and by whom, and who requested it.
• Table of Contents . The table of contents outlines the major parts of the report, as well as any graphs and charts, and the page numbers on which they can be found.
• Executive Summary . The executive summary summarizes all the details in the report in a very quick way. Many people who receive the report—both executives and nonexecutives—won’t have time to read the entire report. Instead, they will rely on the executive summary to quickly get an idea of the study’s results and what to do about those results.

Methodology and Limitations . The methodology section of the report explains the technical details of how the research was designed and conducted. The section explains, for example, how the data was collected and by whom, the size of the sample, how it was chosen, and whom or what it consisted of (e.g., the number of women versus men or children versus adults). It also includes information about the statistical techniques used to analyze the data.

Every study has errors—sampling errors, interviewer errors, and so forth. The methodology section should explain these details, so decision makers can consider their overall impact. The margin of error is the overall tendency of the study to be off kilter—that is, how far it could have gone wrong in either direction. Remember how newscasters present the presidential polls before an election? They always say, “This candidate is ahead 48 to 44 percent, plus or minus 2 percent.” That “plus or minus” is the margin of error. The larger the margin of error is, the less likely the results of the study are accurate. The margin of error needs to be included in the methodology section.

• Findings . The findings section is a longer, fleshed-out version of the executive summary that goes into more detail about the statistics uncovered by the research that bolster the study’s findings. If you have related research or secondary data on hand that back up the findings, it can be included to help show the study did what it was designed to do.
• Recommendations . The recommendations section should outline the course of action you think should be taken based on the findings of the research and the purpose of the project. For example, if you conducted a global market research study to identify new locations for stores, make a recommendation for the locations (Mersdorf, 2009).

As we have said, these are the basic sections of a marketing research report. However, additional sections can be added as needed. For example, you might need to add a section on the competition and each firm’s market share. If you’re trying to decide on different supply chain options, you will need to include a section on that topic.

As you write the research report, keep your audience in mind. Don’t use technical jargon decision makers and other people reading the report won’t understand. If technical terms must be used, explain them. Also, proofread the document to ferret out any grammatical errors and typos, and ask a couple of other people to proofread behind you to catch any mistakes you might have missed. If your research report is riddled with errors, its credibility will be undermined, even if the findings and recommendations you make are extremely accurate.

Many research reports are presented via PowerPoint. If you’re asked to create a slideshow presentation from the report, don’t try to include every detail in the report on the slides. The information will be too long and tedious for people attending the presentation to read through. And if they do go to the trouble of reading all the information, they probably won’t be listening to the speaker who is making the presentation.

Instead of including all the information from the study in the slides, boil each section of the report down to key points and add some “talking points” only the presenter will see. After or during the presentation, you can give the attendees the longer, paper version of the report so they can read the details at a convenient time, if they choose to.

Key Takeaway

Step 1 in the marketing research process is to define the problem. Businesses take a look at what they believe are symptoms and try to drill down to the potential causes so as to precisely define the problem. The next task for the researcher is to put into writing the research objective, or goal, the research is supposed to accomplish. Step 2 in the process is to design the research. The research design is the “plan of attack.” It outlines what data you are going to gather, from whom, how, and when, and how you’re going to analyze it once it has been obtained. Step 3 is to design the data-collection forms, which need to be standardized so the information gathered on each is comparable. Surveys are a popular way to gather data because they can be easily administered to large numbers of people fairly quickly. However, to produce the best results, survey questionnaires need to be carefully designed and pretested before they are used. Step 4 is drawing the sample, or a subset of potential buyers who are representative of your entire target market. If the sample is not correctly selected, the research will be flawed. Step 5 is to actually collect the data, whether it’s collected by a person face-to-face, over the phone, or with the help of computers or the Internet. The data-collection process is often different in foreign countries. Step 6 is to analyze the data collected for any obvious errors, tabulate the data, and then draw conclusions from it based on the results. The last step in the process, Step 7, is writing the research report and presenting the findings to decision makers.

Review Questions

• Explain why it’s important to carefully define the problem or opportunity a marketing research study is designed to investigate.
• Describe the different types of problems that can occur when marketing research professionals develop questions for surveys.
• How does a probability sample differ from a nonprobability sample?
• What makes a marketing research study valid? What makes a marketing research study reliable?
• What sections should be included in a marketing research report? What is each section designed to do?

1 “Questionnaire Design,” QuickMBA , http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/research/qdesign (accessed December 14, 2009).

Barnes, B., “Disney Expert Uses Science to Draw Boy Viewers,” New York Times , April 15, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/arts/television/14boys.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 (accessed December 14, 2009).

Burns A. and Ronald Bush, Marketing Research , 6th ed. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2010), 85.

Malhotra, N., Marketing Research: An Applied Approach , 6th ed. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall), 764.

McDaniel, C. D. and Roger H. Gates, Marketing Research Essentials , 2nd ed. (Cincinnati: South-Western College Publishing, 1998), 61.

McWilliams, J., “A-B Puts Super-Low-Calorie Beer in Ring with Miller,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch , August 16, 2009, http://www.stltoday.com/business/next-matchup-light-weights-a-b-puts-super-low-calorie/article_47511bfe-18ca-5979-bdb9-0526c97d4edf.html (accessed April 13, 2012).

Mersdorf, S., “How to Organize Your Next Survey Report,” Cvent , August 24, 2009, http://survey.cvent.com/blog/cvent-survey/0/0/how-to-organize-your-next-survey-report (accessed December 14, 2009).

Rappeport A. and David Gelles, “Facebook to Form Alliance with Nielsen,” Financial Times , September 23, 2009, 16.

Spangler, T., “Disney Lab Tracks Feelings,” Multichannel News 30, no. 30 (August 3, 2009): 26.

Wagner, J., “Marketing in Second Life Doesn’t Work…Here Is Why!” GigaOM , April 4, 2007, http://gigaom.com/2007/04/04/3-reasons-why-marketing-in-second-life-doesnt-work (accessed December 14, 2009).

Wrenn, B., Robert E. Stevens, and David L. Loudon, Marketing Research: Text and Cases , 2nd ed. (Binghamton, NY: Haworth Press, 2007), 180.

Zouhali-Worrall, M., “Found in Translation: Avoiding Multilingual Gaffes,” CNNMoney.com , July 14, 2008, http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/07/smallbusiness/language_translation.fsb/index.htm (accessed December 14, 2009).

Principles of Marketing Copyright © 2015 by University of Minnesota is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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Home » What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

Table of Contents

Definition:

Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation.

Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments and the collection and analysis of data. It is an essential element of the scientific method, as it allows researchers to make predictions about the outcome of their experiments and to test those predictions to determine their accuracy.

Types of Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis are as follows:

Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a statement that predicts a relationship between variables. It is usually formulated as a specific statement that can be tested through research, and it is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as a starting point for testing the research hypothesis, and if the results of the study reject the null hypothesis, it suggests that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables.

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as an alternative to the null hypothesis and is tested against the null hypothesis to determine which statement is more accurate.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the direction of the relationship between variables. For example, a researcher might predict that increasing the amount of exercise will result in a decrease in body weight.

Non-directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables but does not specify the direction. For example, a researcher might predict that there is a relationship between the amount of exercise and body weight, but they do not specify whether increasing or decreasing exercise will affect body weight.

Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement that assumes a particular statistical model or distribution for the data. It is often used in statistical analysis to test the significance of a particular result.

Composite Hypothesis

A composite hypothesis is a statement that assumes more than one condition or outcome. It can be divided into several sub-hypotheses, each of which represents a different possible outcome.

Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement that is based on observed phenomena or data. It is often used in scientific research to develop theories or models that explain the observed phenomena.

Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement that assumes only one outcome or condition. It is often used in scientific research to test a single variable or factor.

Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is a statement that assumes multiple outcomes or conditions. It is often used in scientific research to test the effects of multiple variables or factors on a particular outcome.

Applications of Hypothesis

Hypotheses are used in various fields to guide research and make predictions about the outcomes of experiments or observations. Here are some examples of how hypotheses are applied in different fields:

• Science : In scientific research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain natural phenomena. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular variable on a natural system, such as the effects of climate change on an ecosystem.
• Medicine : In medical research, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of treatments and therapies for specific conditions. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new drug on a particular disease.
• Psychology : In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior.
• Sociology : In sociology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of social phenomena, such as the effects of social structures or institutions on human behavior. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of income inequality on crime rates.
• Business : In business research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain business phenomena, such as consumer behavior or market trends. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new marketing campaign on consumer buying behavior.
• Engineering : In engineering, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of new technologies or designs. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the efficiency of a new solar panel design.

How to write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps to follow when writing a hypothesis:

Identify the Research Question

The first step is to identify the research question that you want to answer through your study. This question should be clear, specific, and focused. It should be something that can be investigated empirically and that has some relevance or significance in the field.

Conduct a Literature Review

Before writing your hypothesis, it’s essential to conduct a thorough literature review to understand what is already known about the topic. This will help you to identify the research gap and formulate a hypothesis that builds on existing knowledge.

Determine the Variables

The next step is to identify the variables involved in the research question. A variable is any characteristic or factor that can vary or change. There are two types of variables: independent and dependent. The independent variable is the one that is manipulated or changed by the researcher, while the dependent variable is the one that is measured or observed as a result of the independent variable.

Formulate the Hypothesis

Based on the research question and the variables involved, you can now formulate your hypothesis. A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the relationship between the variables. It should be testable through empirical research and based on existing theory or evidence.

Write the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, which is the hypothesis that you are testing. The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference or relationship between the variables. It is important to write the null hypothesis because it allows you to compare your results with what would be expected by chance.

Refine the Hypothesis

After formulating the hypothesis, it’s important to refine it and make it more precise. This may involve clarifying the variables, specifying the direction of the relationship, or making the hypothesis more testable.

Examples of Hypothesis

Here are a few examples of hypotheses in different fields:

• Psychology : “Increased exposure to violent video games leads to increased aggressive behavior in adolescents.”
• Biology : “Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to increased plant growth.”
• Sociology : “Individuals who grow up in households with higher socioeconomic status will have higher levels of education and income as adults.”
• Education : “Implementing a new teaching method will result in higher student achievement scores.”
• Marketing : “Customers who receive a personalized email will be more likely to make a purchase than those who receive a generic email.”
• Physics : “An increase in temperature will cause an increase in the volume of a gas, assuming all other variables remain constant.”
• Medicine : “Consuming a diet high in saturated fats will increase the risk of developing heart disease.”

Purpose of Hypothesis

The purpose of a hypothesis is to provide a testable explanation for an observed phenomenon or a prediction of a future outcome based on existing knowledge or theories. A hypothesis is an essential part of the scientific method and helps to guide the research process by providing a clear focus for investigation. It enables scientists to design experiments or studies to gather evidence and data that can support or refute the proposed explanation or prediction.

The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific, testable, and falsifiable. A specific hypothesis helps to define the research question, which is important in the research process as it guides the selection of an appropriate research design and methodology. Testability of the hypothesis means that it can be proven or disproven through empirical data collection and analysis. Falsifiability means that the hypothesis should be formulated in such a way that it can be proven wrong if it is incorrect.

In addition to guiding the research process, the testing of hypotheses can lead to new discoveries and advancements in scientific knowledge. When a hypothesis is supported by the data, it can be used to develop new theories or models to explain the observed phenomenon. When a hypothesis is not supported by the data, it can help to refine existing theories or prompt the development of new hypotheses to explain the phenomenon.

When to use Hypothesis

Here are some common situations in which hypotheses are used:

• In scientific research , hypotheses are used to guide the design of experiments and to help researchers make predictions about the outcomes of those experiments.
• In social science research , hypotheses are used to test theories about human behavior, social relationships, and other phenomena.
• I n business , hypotheses can be used to guide decisions about marketing, product development, and other areas. For example, a hypothesis might be that a new product will sell well in a particular market, and this hypothesis can be tested through market research.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Here are some common characteristics of a hypothesis:

• Testable : A hypothesis must be able to be tested through observation or experimentation. This means that it must be possible to collect data that will either support or refute the hypothesis.
• Falsifiable : A hypothesis must be able to be proven false if it is not supported by the data. If a hypothesis cannot be falsified, then it is not a scientific hypothesis.
• Clear and concise : A hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner so that it can be easily understood and tested.
• Based on existing knowledge : A hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and research in the field. It should not be based on personal beliefs or opinions.
• Specific : A hypothesis should be specific in terms of the variables being tested and the predicted outcome. This will help to ensure that the research is focused and well-designed.
• Tentative: A hypothesis is a tentative statement or assumption that requires further testing and evidence to be confirmed or refuted. It is not a final conclusion or assertion.
• Relevant : A hypothesis should be relevant to the research question or problem being studied. It should address a gap in knowledge or provide a new perspective on the issue.

Advantages of Hypothesis

Hypotheses have several advantages in scientific research and experimentation:

• Guides research: A hypothesis provides a clear and specific direction for research. It helps to focus the research question, select appropriate methods and variables, and interpret the results.
• Predictive powe r: A hypothesis makes predictions about the outcome of research, which can be tested through experimentation. This allows researchers to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis and make new discoveries.
• Facilitates communication: A hypothesis provides a common language and framework for scientists to communicate with one another about their research. This helps to facilitate the exchange of ideas and promotes collaboration.
• Efficient use of resources: A hypothesis helps researchers to use their time, resources, and funding efficiently by directing them towards specific research questions and methods that are most likely to yield results.
• Provides a basis for further research: A hypothesis that is supported by data provides a basis for further research and exploration. It can lead to new hypotheses, theories, and discoveries.
• Increases objectivity: A hypothesis can help to increase objectivity in research by providing a clear and specific framework for testing and interpreting results. This can reduce bias and increase the reliability of research findings.

Limitations of Hypothesis

Some Limitations of the Hypothesis are as follows:

• Limited to observable phenomena: Hypotheses are limited to observable phenomena and cannot account for unobservable or intangible factors. This means that some research questions may not be amenable to hypothesis testing.
• May be inaccurate or incomplete: Hypotheses are based on existing knowledge and research, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. This can lead to flawed hypotheses and erroneous conclusions.
• May be biased: Hypotheses may be biased by the researcher’s own beliefs, values, or assumptions. This can lead to selective interpretation of data and a lack of objectivity in research.
• Cannot prove causation: A hypothesis can only show a correlation between variables, but it cannot prove causation. This requires further experimentation and analysis.
• Limited to specific contexts: Hypotheses are limited to specific contexts and may not be generalizable to other situations or populations. This means that results may not be applicable in other contexts or may require further testing.
• May be affected by chance : Hypotheses may be affected by chance or random variation, which can obscure or distort the true relationship between variables.

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What is a Research Hypothesis: How to Write it, Types, and Examples

Any research begins with a research question and a research hypothesis . A research question alone may not suffice to design the experiment(s) needed to answer it. A hypothesis is central to the scientific method. But what is a hypothesis ? A hypothesis is a testable statement that proposes a possible explanation to a phenomenon, and it may include a prediction. Next, you may ask what is a research hypothesis ? Simply put, a research hypothesis is a prediction or educated guess about the relationship between the variables that you want to investigate.  

It is important to be thorough when developing your research hypothesis. Shortcomings in the framing of a hypothesis can affect the study design and the results. A better understanding of the research hypothesis definition and characteristics of a good hypothesis will make it easier for you to develop your own hypothesis for your research. Let’s dive in to know more about the types of research hypothesis , how to write a research hypothesis , and some research hypothesis examples .  

Table of Contents

What is a hypothesis ?  

A hypothesis is based on the existing body of knowledge in a study area. Framed before the data are collected, a hypothesis states the tentative relationship between independent and dependent variables, along with a prediction of the outcome.  

What is a research hypothesis ?  

Young researchers starting out their journey are usually brimming with questions like “ What is a hypothesis ?” “ What is a research hypothesis ?” “How can I write a good research hypothesis ?”   

A research hypothesis is a statement that proposes a possible explanation for an observable phenomenon or pattern. It guides the direction of a study and predicts the outcome of the investigation. A research hypothesis is testable, i.e., it can be supported or disproven through experimentation or observation.     

Characteristics of a good hypothesis  

Here are the characteristics of a good hypothesis :  

• Clearly formulated and free of language errors and ambiguity  
• Concise and not unnecessarily verbose  
• Has clearly defined variables  
• Testable and stated in a way that allows for it to be disproven  
• Can be tested using a research design that is feasible, ethical, and practical   
• Specific and relevant to the research problem  
• Rooted in a thorough literature search  
• Can generate new knowledge or understanding.  

How to create an effective research hypothesis  

A study begins with the formulation of a research question. A researcher then performs background research. This background information forms the basis for building a good research hypothesis . The researcher then performs experiments, collects, and analyzes the data, interprets the findings, and ultimately, determines if the findings support or negate the original hypothesis.  

Let’s look at each step for creating an effective, testable, and good research hypothesis :  

• Identify a research problem or question: Start by identifying a specific research problem.   
• Review the literature: Conduct an in-depth review of the existing literature related to the research problem to grasp the current knowledge and gaps in the field.   
• Formulate a clear and testable hypothesis : Based on the research question, use existing knowledge to form a clear and testable hypothesis . The hypothesis should state a predicted relationship between two or more variables that can be measured and manipulated. Improve the original draft till it is clear and meaningful.  
• State the null hypothesis: The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no relationship between the variables you are studying.   
• Define the population and sample: Clearly define the population you are studying and the sample you will be using for your research.  
• Select appropriate methods for testing the hypothesis: Select appropriate research methods, such as experiments, surveys, or observational studies, which will allow you to test your research hypothesis .  

Remember that creating a research hypothesis is an iterative process, i.e., you might have to revise it based on the data you collect. You may need to test and reject several hypotheses before answering the research problem.  

How to write a research hypothesis  

When you start writing a research hypothesis , you use an “if–then” statement format, which states the predicted relationship between two or more variables. Clearly identify the independent variables (the variables being changed) and the dependent variables (the variables being measured), as well as the population you are studying. Review and revise your hypothesis as needed.  

An example of a research hypothesis in this format is as follows:  

“ If [athletes] follow [cold water showers daily], then their [endurance] increases.”  

Population: athletes  

Independent variable: daily cold water showers  

Dependent variable: endurance  

You may have understood the characteristics of a good hypothesis . But note that a research hypothesis is not always confirmed; a researcher should be prepared to accept or reject the hypothesis based on the study findings.  

Research hypothesis checklist  

Following from above, here is a 10-point checklist for a good research hypothesis :  

• Testable: A research hypothesis should be able to be tested via experimentation or observation.  
• Specific: A research hypothesis should clearly state the relationship between the variables being studied.  
• Based on prior research: A research hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and previous research in the field.  
• Falsifiable: A research hypothesis should be able to be disproven through testing.  
• Clear and concise: A research hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner.  
• Logical: A research hypothesis should be logical and consistent with current understanding of the subject.  
• Relevant: A research hypothesis should be relevant to the research question and objectives.  
• Feasible: A research hypothesis should be feasible to test within the scope of the study.  
• Reflects the population: A research hypothesis should consider the population or sample being studied.  
• Uncomplicated: A good research hypothesis is written in a way that is easy for the target audience to understand.  

By following this research hypothesis checklist , you will be able to create a research hypothesis that is strong, well-constructed, and more likely to yield meaningful results.  

Types of research hypothesis  

Different types of research hypothesis are used in scientific research:  

1. Null hypothesis:

A null hypothesis states that there is no change in the dependent variable due to changes to the independent variable. This means that the results are due to chance and are not significant. A null hypothesis is denoted as H0 and is stated as the opposite of what the alternative hypothesis states.   

Example: “ The newly identified virus is not zoonotic .”  

2. Alternative hypothesis:

This states that there is a significant difference or relationship between the variables being studied. It is denoted as H1 or Ha and is usually accepted or rejected in favor of the null hypothesis.  

Example: “ The newly identified virus is zoonotic .”  

3. Directional hypothesis :

This specifies the direction of the relationship or difference between variables; therefore, it tends to use terms like increase, decrease, positive, negative, more, or less.   

Example: “ The inclusion of intervention X decreases infant mortality compared to the original treatment .”   

4. Non-directional hypothesis:

While it does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables, a non-directional hypothesis states the existence of a relationship or difference between variables but not the direction, nature, or magnitude of the relationship. A non-directional hypothesis may be used when there is no underlying theory or when findings contradict previous research.  

Example, “ Cats and dogs differ in the amount of affection they express .”  

5. Simple hypothesis :

A simple hypothesis only predicts the relationship between one independent and another independent variable.  

Example: “ Applying sunscreen every day slows skin aging .”  

6 . Complex hypothesis :

A complex hypothesis states the relationship or difference between two or more independent and dependent variables.   

Example: “ Applying sunscreen every day slows skin aging, reduces sun burn, and reduces the chances of skin cancer .” (Here, the three dependent variables are slowing skin aging, reducing sun burn, and reducing the chances of skin cancer.)  

7. Associative hypothesis:  

An associative hypothesis states that a change in one variable results in the change of the other variable. The associative hypothesis defines interdependency between variables.  

Example: “ There is a positive association between physical activity levels and overall health .”  

8 . Causal hypothesis:

A causal hypothesis proposes a cause-and-effect interaction between variables.  

Example: “ Long-term alcohol use causes liver damage .”  

Note that some of the types of research hypothesis mentioned above might overlap. The types of hypothesis chosen will depend on the research question and the objective of the study.  

Research hypothesis examples  

Here are some good research hypothesis examples :  

“The use of a specific type of therapy will lead to a reduction in symptoms of depression in individuals with a history of major depressive disorder.”  

“Providing educational interventions on healthy eating habits will result in weight loss in overweight individuals.”  

“Plants that are exposed to certain types of music will grow taller than those that are not exposed to music.”  

“The use of the plant growth regulator X will lead to an increase in the number of flowers produced by plants.”  

Characteristics that make a research hypothesis weak are unclear variables, unoriginality, being too general or too vague, and being untestable. A weak hypothesis leads to weak research and improper methods.   

Some bad research hypothesis examples (and the reasons why they are “bad”) are as follows:  

“This study will show that treatment X is better than any other treatment . ” (This statement is not testable, too broad, and does not consider other treatments that may be effective.)  

“This study will prove that this type of therapy is effective for all mental disorders . ” (This statement is too broad and not testable as mental disorders are complex and different disorders may respond differently to different types of therapy.)  

“Plants can communicate with each other through telepathy . ” (This statement is not testable and lacks a scientific basis.)  

Importance of testable hypothesis  

If a research hypothesis is not testable, the results will not prove or disprove anything meaningful. The conclusions will be vague at best. A testable hypothesis helps a researcher focus on the study outcome and understand the implication of the question and the different variables involved. A testable hypothesis helps a researcher make precise predictions based on prior research.  

To be considered testable, there must be a way to prove that the hypothesis is true or false; further, the results of the hypothesis must be reproducible.  

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on research hypothesis  

1. What is the difference between research question and research hypothesis ?  

A research question defines the problem and helps outline the study objective(s). It is an open-ended statement that is exploratory or probing in nature. Therefore, it does not make predictions or assumptions. It helps a researcher identify what information to collect. A research hypothesis , however, is a specific, testable prediction about the relationship between variables. Accordingly, it guides the study design and data analysis approach.

2. When to reject null hypothesis ?

A null hypothesis should be rejected when the evidence from a statistical test shows that it is unlikely to be true. This happens when the test statistic (e.g., p -value) is less than the defined significance level (e.g., 0.05). Rejecting the null hypothesis does not necessarily mean that the alternative hypothesis is true; it simply means that the evidence found is not compatible with the null hypothesis.  

3. How can I be sure my hypothesis is testable?  

A testable hypothesis should be specific and measurable, and it should state a clear relationship between variables that can be tested with data. To ensure that your hypothesis is testable, consider the following:  

• Clearly define the key variables in your hypothesis. You should be able to measure and manipulate these variables in a way that allows you to test the hypothesis.  
• The hypothesis should predict a specific outcome or relationship between variables that can be measured or quantified.   
• You should be able to collect the necessary data within the constraints of your study.  
• It should be possible for other researchers to replicate your study, using the same methods and variables.   
• Your hypothesis should be testable by using appropriate statistical analysis techniques, so you can draw conclusions, and make inferences about the population from the sample data.  
• The hypothesis should be able to be disproven or rejected through the collection of data.  

4. How do I revise my research hypothesis if my data does not support it?  

If your data does not support your research hypothesis , you will need to revise it or develop a new one. You should examine your data carefully and identify any patterns or anomalies, re-examine your research question, and/or revisit your theory to look for any alternative explanations for your results. Based on your review of the data, literature, and theories, modify your research hypothesis to better align it with the results you obtained. Use your revised hypothesis to guide your research design and data collection. It is important to remain objective throughout the process.  

5. I am performing exploratory research. Do I need to formulate a research hypothesis?  

As opposed to “confirmatory” research, where a researcher has some idea about the relationship between the variables under investigation, exploratory research (or hypothesis-generating research) looks into a completely new topic about which limited information is available. Therefore, the researcher will not have any prior hypotheses. In such cases, a researcher will need to develop a post-hoc hypothesis. A post-hoc research hypothesis is generated after these results are known.  

6. How is a research hypothesis different from a research question?

A research question is an inquiry about a specific topic or phenomenon, typically expressed as a question. It seeks to explore and understand a particular aspect of the research subject. In contrast, a research hypothesis is a specific statement or prediction that suggests an expected relationship between variables. It is formulated based on existing knowledge or theories and guides the research design and data analysis.

7. Can a research hypothesis change during the research process?

Yes, research hypotheses can change during the research process. As researchers collect and analyze data, new insights and information may emerge that require modification or refinement of the initial hypotheses. This can be due to unexpected findings, limitations in the original hypotheses, or the need to explore additional dimensions of the research topic. Flexibility is crucial in research, allowing for adaptation and adjustment of hypotheses to align with the evolving understanding of the subject matter.

8. How many hypotheses should be included in a research study?

The number of research hypotheses in a research study varies depending on the nature and scope of the research. It is not necessary to have multiple hypotheses in every study. Some studies may have only one primary hypothesis, while others may have several related hypotheses. The number of hypotheses should be determined based on the research objectives, research questions, and the complexity of the research topic. It is important to ensure that the hypotheses are focused, testable, and directly related to the research aims.

9. Can research hypotheses be used in qualitative research?

Yes, research hypotheses can be used in qualitative research, although they are more commonly associated with quantitative research. In qualitative research, hypotheses may be formulated as tentative or exploratory statements that guide the investigation. Instead of testing hypotheses through statistical analysis, qualitative researchers may use the hypotheses to guide data collection and analysis, seeking to uncover patterns, themes, or relationships within the qualitative data. The emphasis in qualitative research is often on generating insights and understanding rather than confirming or rejecting specific research hypotheses through statistical testing.

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A/B Testing: Example of a good hypothesis

Want to know the secret to always running successful tests?

The answer is to formulate a hypothesis .

Now when I say it’s always successful, I’m not talking about always increasing your Key Performance Indicator (KPI). You can “lose” a test, but still be successful.

That sounds like an oxymoron, but it’s not. If you set up your test strategically, even if the test decreases your KPI, you gain a learning , which is a success! And, if you win, you simultaneously achieve a lift and a learning. Double win!

The way you ensure you have a strategic test that will produce a learning is by centering it around a strong hypothesis.

So, what is a hypothesis?

By definition, a hypothesis is a proposed statement made on the basis of limited evidence that can be proved or disproved and is used as a starting point for further investigation.

Let’s break that down:

It is a proposed statement.

• A hypothesis is not fact, and should not be argued as right or wrong until it is tested and proven one way or the other.

It is made on the basis of limited (but hopefully some ) evidence.

• Your hypothesis should be informed by as much knowledge as you have. This should include data that you have gathered, any research you have done, and the analysis of the current problems you have performed.

It can be proved or disproved.

• A hypothesis pretty much says, “I think by making this change , it will cause this effect .” So, based on your results, you should be able to say “this is true” or “this is false.”

It is used as a starting point for further investigation.

• The key word here is starting point . Your hypothesis should be formed and agreed upon before you make any wireframes or designs as it is what guides the design of your test. It helps you focus on what elements to change, how to change them, and which to leave alone.

How do I write a hypothesis?

The structure of your basic hypothesis follows a CHANGE: EFFECT framework.

While this is a truly scientific and testable template, it is very open-ended. Even though this hypothesis, “Changing an English headline into a Spanish headline will increase clickthrough rate,” is perfectly valid and testable, if your visitors are English-speaking, it probably doesn’t make much sense.

So now the question is …

How do I write a GOOD hypothesis?

To quote my boss Tony Doty , “This isn’t Mad Libs.”

We can’t just start plugging in nouns and verbs and conclude that we have a good hypothesis. Your hypothesis needs to be backed by a strategy. And, your strategy needs to be rooted in a solution to a problem .

So, a more complete version of the above template would be something like this:

In order to have a good hypothesis, you don’t necessarily have to follow this exact sentence structure, as long as it is centered around three main things:

Presumed problem

Proposed solution

Anticipated result

After you’ve completed your analysis and research, identify the problem that you will address. While we need to be very clear about what we think the problem is, you should leave it out of the hypothesis since it is harder to prove or disprove. You may want to come up with both a problem statement and a hypothesis .

For example:

Problem Statement: “The lead generation form is too long, causing unnecessary friction .”

Hypothesis: “By changing the amount of form fields from 20 to 10, we will increase number of leads.”

When you are thinking about the solution you want to implement, you need to think about the psychology of the customer. What psychological impact is your proposed problem causing in the mind of the customer?

For example, if your proposed problem is “There is a lack of clarity in the sign-up process,” the psychological impact may be that the user is confused.

Now think about what solution is going to address the problem in the customer’s mind. If they are confused, we need to explain something better, or provide them with more information. For this example, we will say our proposed solution is to “Add a progress bar to the sign-up process.”  This leads straight into the anticipated result.

If we reduce the confusion in the visitor’s mind (psychological impact) by adding the progress bar, what do we foresee to be the result? We are anticipating that it would be more people completing the sign-up process. Your proposed solution and your KPI need to be directly correlated.

Note: Some people will include the psychological impact in their hypothesis. This isn’t necessarily wrong, but we do have to be careful with assumptions. If we say that the effect will be “Reduced confusion and therefore increase in conversion rate,” we are assuming the reduced confusion is what made the impact. While this may be correct, it is not measureable and it is hard to prove or disprove.

To summarize, your hypothesis should follow a structure of: “If I change this, it will have this effect,” but should always be informed by an analysis of the problems and rooted in the solution you deemed appropriate.

Related Resources:

A/B Testing 101: How to get real results from optimization

The True Value of Data

15 Years of Marketing Research in 11 Minutes

Marketing Analytics: 6 simple steps for interpreting your data

Website A/B Testing: 4 tips to beat an unbeatable landing page

Online Cart: 6 ideas to test and optimize your checkout process

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The 21 Psychological Elements that Power Effective Web Design (Part 1)

Thanks for the article. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around this type of testing because I’d like to use it to see the effectiveness on some ads. This article really helped. Thanks Again!

Hey Lauren, I am just getting to the point that I have something to perform A-B testing on. This post led me to this site which will and already has become a help in what to test and how to test .

Again, thanks for getting me here .

Good article. I have been researching different approaches to writing testing hypotheses and this has been a help. The only thing I would add is that it can be useful to capture the insight/justification within the hypothesis statement. IF i do this, THEN I expect this result BECAUSE I have this insight.

@Kaya Great!

Good article – but technically you can never prove an hypothesis, according to the principle of falsification (Popper), only fail to disprove the null hypothesis.

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Research Hypothesis: What It Is, Types + How to Develop?

A research study starts with a question. Researchers worldwide ask questions and create research hypotheses. The effectiveness of research relies on developing a good research hypothesis. Examples of research hypotheses can guide researchers in writing effective ones.

In this blog, we’ll learn what a research hypothesis is, why it’s important in research, and the different types used in science. We’ll also guide you through creating your research hypothesis and discussing ways to test and evaluate it.

What is a Research Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is like a guess or idea that you suggest to check if it’s true. A research hypothesis is a statement that brings up a question and predicts what might happen.

It’s really important in the scientific method and is used in experiments to figure things out. Essentially, it’s an educated guess about how things are connected in the research.

A research hypothesis usually includes pointing out the independent variable (the thing they’re changing or studying) and the dependent variable (the result they’re measuring or watching). It helps plan how to gather and analyze data to see if there’s evidence to support or deny the expected connection between these variables.

Importance of Hypothesis in Research

Hypotheses are really important in research. They help design studies, allow for practical testing, and add to our scientific knowledge. Their main role is to organize research projects, making them purposeful, focused, and valuable to the scientific community. Let’s look at some key reasons why they matter:

• A research hypothesis helps test theories.

A hypothesis plays a pivotal role in the scientific method by providing a basis for testing existing theories. For example, a hypothesis might test the predictive power of a psychological theory on human behavior.

• It serves as a great platform for investigation activities.

It serves as a launching pad for investigation activities, which offers researchers a clear starting point. A research hypothesis can explore the relationship between exercise and stress reduction.

• Hypothesis guides the research work or study.

A well-formulated hypothesis guides the entire research process. It ensures that the study remains focused and purposeful. For instance, a hypothesis about the impact of social media on interpersonal relationships provides clear guidance for a study.

• Hypothesis sometimes suggests theories.

In some cases, a hypothesis can suggest new theories or modifications to existing ones. For example, a hypothesis testing the effectiveness of a new drug might prompt a reconsideration of current medical theories.

• It helps in knowing the data needs.

A hypothesis clarifies the data requirements for a study, ensuring that researchers collect the necessary information—a hypothesis guiding the collection of demographic data to analyze the influence of age on a particular phenomenon.

• The hypothesis explains social phenomena.

Hypotheses are instrumental in explaining complex social phenomena. For instance, a hypothesis might explore the relationship between economic factors and crime rates in a given community.

• Hypothesis provides a relationship between phenomena for empirical Testing.

Hypotheses establish clear relationships between phenomena, paving the way for empirical testing. An example could be a hypothesis exploring the correlation between sleep patterns and academic performance.

• It helps in knowing the most suitable analysis technique.

A hypothesis guides researchers in selecting the most appropriate analysis techniques for their data. For example, a hypothesis focusing on the effectiveness of a teaching method may lead to the choice of statistical analyses best suited for educational research.

Characteristics of a Good Research Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a specific idea that you can test in a study. It often comes from looking at past research and theories. A good hypothesis usually starts with a research question that you can explore through background research. For it to be effective, consider these key characteristics:

• Clear and Focused Language: A good hypothesis uses clear and focused language to avoid confusion and ensure everyone understands it.
• Related to the Research Topic: The hypothesis should directly relate to the research topic, acting as a bridge between the specific question and the broader study.
• Testable: An effective hypothesis can be tested, meaning its prediction can be checked with real data to support or challenge the proposed relationship.
• Potential for Exploration: A good hypothesis often comes from a research question that invites further exploration. Doing background research helps find gaps and potential areas to investigate.
• Includes Variables: The hypothesis should clearly state both the independent and dependent variables, specifying the factors being studied and the expected outcomes.
• Ethical Considerations: Check if variables can be manipulated without breaking ethical standards. It’s crucial to maintain ethical research practices.
• Predicts Outcomes: The hypothesis should predict the expected relationship and outcome, acting as a roadmap for the study and guiding data collection and analysis.
• Simple and Concise: A good hypothesis avoids unnecessary complexity and is simple and concise, expressing the essence of the proposed relationship clearly.
• Clear and Assumption-Free: The hypothesis should be clear and free from assumptions about the reader’s prior knowledge, ensuring universal understanding.
• Observable and Testable Results: A strong hypothesis implies research that produces observable and testable results, making sure the study’s outcomes can be effectively measured and analyzed.

When you use these characteristics as a checklist, it can help you create a good research hypothesis. It’ll guide improving and strengthening the hypothesis, identifying any weaknesses, and making necessary changes. Crafting a hypothesis with these features helps you conduct a thorough and insightful research study.

Types of Research Hypotheses

The research hypothesis comes in various types, each serving a specific purpose in guiding the scientific investigation. Knowing the differences will make it easier for you to create your own hypothesis. Here’s an overview of the common types:

01. Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis states that there is no connection between two considered variables or that two groups are unrelated. As discussed earlier, a hypothesis is an unproven assumption lacking sufficient supporting data. It serves as the statement researchers aim to disprove. It is testable, verifiable, and can be rejected.

For example, if you’re studying the relationship between Project A and Project B, assuming both projects are of equal standard is your null hypothesis. It needs to be specific for your study.

02. Alternative Hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis is basically another option to the null hypothesis. It involves looking for a significant change or alternative that could lead you to reject the null hypothesis. It’s a different idea compared to the null hypothesis.

When you create a null hypothesis, you’re making an educated guess about whether something is true or if there’s a connection between that thing and another variable. If the null view suggests something is correct, the alternative hypothesis says it’s incorrect. 

For instance, if your null hypothesis is “I’m going to be $1000 richer,” the alternative hypothesis would be “I’m not going to get $1000 or be richer.”

03. Directional Hypothesis

The directional hypothesis predicts the direction of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. They specify whether the effect will be positive or negative.

If you increase your study hours, you will experience a positive association with your exam scores. This hypothesis suggests that as you increase the independent variable (study hours), there will also be an increase in the dependent variable (exam scores).

04. Non-directional Hypothesis

The non-directional hypothesis predicts the existence of a relationship between variables but does not specify the direction of the effect. It suggests that there will be a significant difference or relationship, but it does not predict the nature of that difference.

For example, you will find no notable difference in test scores between students who receive the educational intervention and those who do not. However, once you compare the test scores of the two groups, you will notice an important difference.

05. Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis predicts a relationship between one dependent variable and one independent variable without specifying the nature of that relationship. It’s simple and usually used when we don’t know much about how the two things are connected.

For example, if you adopt effective study habits, you will achieve higher exam scores than those with poor study habits.

06. Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is an idea that specifies a relationship between multiple independent and dependent variables. It is a more detailed idea than a simple hypothesis.

While a simple view suggests a straightforward cause-and-effect relationship between two things, a complex hypothesis involves many factors and how they’re connected to each other.

For example, when you increase your study time, you tend to achieve higher exam scores. The connection between your study time and exam performance is affected by various factors, including the quality of your sleep, your motivation levels, and the effectiveness of your study techniques.

If you sleep well, stay highly motivated, and use effective study strategies, you may observe a more robust positive correlation between the time you spend studying and your exam scores, unlike those who may lack these factors.

07. Associative Hypothesis

An associative hypothesis proposes a connection between two things without saying that one causes the other. Basically, it suggests that when one thing changes, the other changes too, but it doesn’t claim that one thing is causing the change in the other.

For example, you will likely notice higher exam scores when you increase your study time. You can recognize an association between your study time and exam scores in this scenario.

Your hypothesis acknowledges a relationship between the two variables—your study time and exam scores—without asserting that increased study time directly causes higher exam scores. You need to consider that other factors, like motivation or learning style, could affect the observed association.

08. Causal Hypothesis

A causal hypothesis proposes a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables. It suggests that changes in one variable directly cause changes in another variable.

For example, when you increase your study time, you experience higher exam scores. This hypothesis suggests a direct cause-and-effect relationship, indicating that the more time you spend studying, the higher your exam scores. It assumes that changes in your study time directly influence changes in your exam performance.

09. Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement based on things we can see and measure. It comes from direct observation or experiments and can be tested with real-world evidence. If an experiment proves a theory, it supports the idea and shows it’s not just a guess. This makes the statement more reliable than a wild guess.

For example, if you increase the dosage of a certain medication, you might observe a quicker recovery time for patients. Imagine you’re in charge of a clinical trial. In this trial, patients are given varying dosages of the medication, and you measure and compare their recovery times. This allows you to directly see the effects of different dosages on how fast patients recover.

This way, you can create a research hypothesis: “Increasing the dosage of a certain medication will lead to a faster recovery time for patients.”

10. Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement or assumption about a population parameter that is the subject of an investigation. It serves as the basis for statistical analysis and testing. It is often tested using statistical methods to draw inferences about the larger population.

In a hypothesis test, statistical evidence is collected to either reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis or fail to reject the null hypothesis due to insufficient evidence.

For example, let’s say you’re testing a new medicine. Your hypothesis could be that the medicine doesn’t really help patients get better. So, you collect data and use statistics to see if your guess is right or if the medicine actually makes a difference.

If the data strongly shows that the medicine does help, you say your guess was wrong, and the medicine does make a difference. But if the proof isn’t strong enough, you can stick with your original guess because you didn’t get enough evidence to change your mind.

How to Develop a Research Hypotheses?

Step 1: identify your research problem or topic..

Define the area of interest or the problem you want to investigate. Make sure it’s clear and well-defined.

Start by asking a question about your chosen topic. Consider the limitations of your research and create a straightforward problem related to your topic. Once you’ve done that, you can develop and test a hypothesis with evidence.

Step 2: Conduct a literature review

Review existing literature related to your research problem. This will help you understand the current state of knowledge in the field, identify gaps, and build a foundation for your hypothesis. Consider the following questions:

• What existing research has been conducted on your chosen topic?
• Are there any gaps or unanswered questions in the current literature?
• How will the existing literature contribute to the foundation of your research?

Step 3: Formulate your research question

Based on your literature review, create a specific and concise research question that addresses your identified problem. Your research question should be clear, focused, and relevant to your field of study.

Step 4: Identify variables

Determine the key variables involved in your research question. Variables are the factors or phenomena that you will study and manipulate to test your hypothesis.

• Independent Variable: The variable you manipulate or control.
• Dependent Variable: The variable you measure to observe the effect of the independent variable.

Step 5: State the Null hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no significant difference or effect. It serves as a baseline for comparison with the alternative hypothesis.

Step 6: Select appropriate methods for testing the hypothesis

Choose research methods that align with your study objectives, such as experiments, surveys, or observational studies. The selected methods enable you to test your research hypothesis effectively.

Creating a research hypothesis usually takes more than one try. Expect to make changes as you collect data. It’s normal to test and say no to a few hypotheses before you find the right answer to your research question.

Testing and Evaluating Hypotheses

Testing hypotheses is a really important part of research. It’s like the practical side of things. Here, real-world evidence will help you determine how different things are connected. Let’s explore the main steps in hypothesis testing:

• State your research hypothesis.

Before testing, clearly articulate your research hypothesis. This involves framing both a null hypothesis, suggesting no significant effect or relationship, and an alternative hypothesis, proposing the expected outcome.

• Collect data strategically.

Plan how you will gather information in a way that fits your study. Make sure your data collection method matches the things you’re studying.

Whether through surveys, observations, or experiments, this step demands precision and adherence to the established methodology. The quality of data collected directly influences the credibility of study outcomes.

• Perform an appropriate statistical test.

Choose a statistical test that aligns with the nature of your data and the hypotheses being tested. Whether it’s a t-test, chi-square test, ANOVA, or regression analysis, selecting the right statistical tool is paramount for accurate and reliable results.

• Decide if your idea was right or wrong.

Following the statistical analysis, evaluate the results in the context of your null hypothesis. You need to decide if you should reject your null hypothesis or not.

• Share what you found.

When discussing what you found in your research, be clear and organized. Say whether your idea was supported or not, and talk about what your results mean. Also, mention any limits to your study and suggest ideas for future research.

The Role of QuestionPro to Develop a Good Research Hypothesis

QuestionPro is a survey and research platform that provides tools for creating, distributing, and analyzing surveys. It plays a crucial role in the research process, especially when you’re in the initial stages of hypothesis development. Here’s how QuestionPro can help you to develop a good research hypothesis:

• Survey design and data collection: You can use the platform to create targeted questions that help you gather relevant data.
• Exploratory research: Through surveys and feedback mechanisms on QuestionPro, you can conduct exploratory research to understand the landscape of a particular subject.
• Literature review and background research: QuestionPro surveys can collect sample population opinions, experiences, and preferences. This data and a thorough literature evaluation can help you generate a well-grounded hypothesis by improving your research knowledge.
• Identifying variables: Using targeted survey questions, you can identify relevant variables related to their research topic.
• Testing assumptions: You can use surveys to informally test certain assumptions or hypotheses before formalizing a research hypothesis.
• Data analysis tools: QuestionPro provides tools for analyzing survey data. You can use these tools to identify the collected data’s patterns, correlations, or trends.
• Refining your hypotheses: As you collect data through QuestionPro, you can adjust your hypotheses based on the real-world responses you receive.

A research hypothesis is like a guide for researchers in science. It’s a well-thought-out idea that has been thoroughly tested. This idea is crucial as researchers can explore different fields, such as medicine, social sciences, and natural sciences. The research hypothesis links theories to real-world evidence and gives researchers a clear path to explore and make discoveries.

QuestionPro Research Suite is a helpful tool for researchers. It makes creating surveys, collecting data, and analyzing information easily. It supports all kinds of research, from exploring new ideas to forming hypotheses. With a focus on using data, it helps researchers do their best work.

Are you interested in learning more about QuestionPro Research Suite? Take advantage of QuestionPro’s free trial to get an initial look at its capabilities and realize the full potential of your research efforts.

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Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit

• Published: May 2001
• Volume 12 , pages 171–187, ( 2001 )

Cite this article

• J. Scott Armstrong 1 ,
• Roderick J. Brodie 2 &
• Andrew G. Parsons 2  

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We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that the use of a single dominant hypothesis lacks objectivity relative to the use of exploratory and competing hypotheses approaches. We then conducted a publication audit of over 1,700 empirical papers in six leading marketing journals during 1984–1999. Of these, 74% used the dominant hypothesis approach, while 13% used multiple competing hypotheses, and 13% were exploratory. Competing hypotheses were more commonly used for studying methods (25%) than models (17%) and phenomena (7%). Changes in the approach to hypotheses since 1984 have been modest; there was a slight decrease in the percentage of competing hypotheses to 11%, which is explained primarily by an increasing proportion of papers on phenomena. Of the studies based on hypothesis testing, only 11% described the conditions under which the hypotheses would apply, and dominant hypotheses were below competing hypotheses in this regard. Marketing scientists differed substantially in their opinions about what types of studies should be published and what was published. On average, they did not think dominant hypotheses should be used as often as they were, and they underestimated their use.

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Normative Criteria for the Development and Appraisal of Marketing Theory

Research Method Topics and Issues that Reduce the Value of Reported Empirical Insights in the Marketing Literatures: An Abstract

Marketing Theory: The Present Stage Of Development

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Armstrong, J.S., Brodie, R.J. & Parsons, A.G. Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit. Marketing Letters 12 , 171–187 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011169104290

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How to Develop a Good Research Hypothesis

The story of a research study begins by asking a question. Researchers all around the globe are asking curious questions and formulating research hypothesis. However, whether the research study provides an effective conclusion depends on how well one develops a good research hypothesis. Research hypothesis examples could help researchers get an idea as to how to write a good research hypothesis.

This blog will help you understand what is a research hypothesis, its characteristics and, how to formulate a research hypothesis

Table of Contents

What is Hypothesis?

Hypothesis is an assumption or an idea proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested. It is a precise, testable statement of what the researchers predict will be outcome of the study.  Hypothesis usually involves proposing a relationship between two variables: the independent variable (what the researchers change) and the dependent variable (what the research measures).

What is a Research Hypothesis?

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It is an integral part of the scientific method that forms the basis of scientific experiments. Therefore, you need to be careful and thorough when building your research hypothesis. A minor flaw in the construction of your hypothesis could have an adverse effect on your experiment. In research, there is a convention that the hypothesis is written in two forms, the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypothesis (called the experimental hypothesis when the method of investigation is an experiment).

Characteristics of a Good Research Hypothesis

As the hypothesis is specific, there is a testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. You may consider drawing hypothesis from previously published research based on the theory.

A good research hypothesis involves more effort than just a guess. In particular, your hypothesis may begin with a question that could be further explored through background research.

To help you formulate a promising research hypothesis, you should ask yourself the following questions:

• Is the language clear and focused?
• What is the relationship between your hypothesis and your research topic?
• Is your hypothesis testable? If yes, then how?
• What are the possible explanations that you might want to explore?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate your variables without hampering the ethical standards?
• Does your research predict the relationship and outcome?
• Is your research simple and concise (avoids wordiness)?
• Is it clear with no ambiguity or assumptions about the readers’ knowledge
• Is your research observable and testable results?
• Is it relevant and specific to the research question or problem?

The questions listed above can be used as a checklist to make sure your hypothesis is based on a solid foundation. Furthermore, it can help you identify weaknesses in your hypothesis and revise it if necessary.

Source: Educational Hub

How to formulate a research hypothesis.

A testable hypothesis is not a simple statement. It is rather an intricate statement that needs to offer a clear introduction to a scientific experiment, its intentions, and the possible outcomes. However, there are some important things to consider when building a compelling hypothesis.

1. State the problem that you are trying to solve.

Make sure that the hypothesis clearly defines the topic and the focus of the experiment.

2. Try to write the hypothesis as an if-then statement.

Follow this template: If a specific action is taken, then a certain outcome is expected.

3. Define the variables

Independent variables are the ones that are manipulated, controlled, or changed. Independent variables are isolated from other factors of the study.

Dependent variables , as the name suggests are dependent on other factors of the study. They are influenced by the change in independent variable.

4. Scrutinize the hypothesis

Evaluate assumptions, predictions, and evidence rigorously to refine your understanding.

Types of Research Hypothesis

The types of research hypothesis are stated below:

1. Simple Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable.

2. Complex Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables.

3. Directional Hypothesis

It specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables and is derived from theory. Furthermore, it implies the researcher’s intellectual commitment to a particular outcome.

4. Non-directional Hypothesis

It does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. The non-directional hypothesis is used when there is no theory involved or when findings contradict previous research.

5. Associative and Causal Hypothesis

The associative hypothesis defines interdependency between variables. A change in one variable results in the change of the other variable. On the other hand, the causal hypothesis proposes an effect on the dependent due to manipulation of the independent variable.

6. Null Hypothesis

Null hypothesis states a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. There will be no changes in the dependent variable due the manipulation of the independent variable. Furthermore, it states results are due to chance and are not significant in terms of supporting the idea being investigated.

7. Alternative Hypothesis

It states that there is a relationship between the two variables of the study and that the results are significant to the research topic. An experimental hypothesis predicts what changes will take place in the dependent variable when the independent variable is manipulated. Also, it states that the results are not due to chance and that they are significant in terms of supporting the theory being investigated.

Research Hypothesis Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables

Research Hypothesis Example 1 The greater number of coal plants in a region (independent variable) increases water pollution (dependent variable). If you change the independent variable (building more coal factories), it will change the dependent variable (amount of water pollution).

Research Hypothesis Example 2 What is the effect of diet or regular soda (independent variable) on blood sugar levels (dependent variable)? If you change the independent variable (the type of soda you consume), it will change the dependent variable (blood sugar levels)

You should not ignore the importance of the above steps. The validity of your experiment and its results rely on a robust testable hypothesis. Developing a strong testable hypothesis has few advantages, it compels us to think intensely and specifically about the outcomes of a study. Consequently, it enables us to understand the implication of the question and the different variables involved in the study. Furthermore, it helps us to make precise predictions based on prior research. Hence, forming a hypothesis would be of great value to the research. Here are some good examples of testable hypotheses.

More importantly, you need to build a robust testable research hypothesis for your scientific experiments. A testable hypothesis is a hypothesis that can be proved or disproved as a result of experimentation.

Importance of a Testable Hypothesis

To devise and perform an experiment using scientific method, you need to make sure that your hypothesis is testable. To be considered testable, some essential criteria must be met:

• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is true.
• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is false.
• The results of the hypothesis must be reproducible.

Without these criteria, the hypothesis and the results will be vague. As a result, the experiment will not prove or disprove anything significant.

What are your experiences with building hypotheses for scientific experiments? What challenges did you face? How did you overcome these challenges? Please share your thoughts with us in the comments section.

Frequently Asked Questions

The steps to write a research hypothesis are: 1. Stating the problem: Ensure that the hypothesis defines the research problem 2. Writing a hypothesis as an 'if-then' statement: Include the action and the expected outcome of your study by following a ‘if-then’ structure. 3. Defining the variables: Define the variables as Dependent or Independent based on their dependency to other factors. 4. Scrutinizing the hypothesis: Identify the type of your hypothesis

Hypothesis testing is a statistical tool which is used to make inferences about a population data to draw conclusions for a particular hypothesis.

Hypothesis in statistics is a formal statement about the nature of a population within a structured framework of a statistical model. It is used to test an existing hypothesis by studying a population.

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It forms the basis of scientific experiments.

The different types of hypothesis in research are: • Null hypothesis: Null hypothesis is a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. • Alternate hypothesis: Alternate hypothesis predicts the relationship between the two variables of the study. • Directional hypothesis: Directional hypothesis specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables. • Non-directional hypothesis: Non-directional hypothesis does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. • Simple hypothesis: Simple hypothesis predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable. • Complex hypothesis: Complex hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Associative and casual hypothesis: Associative and casual hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Empirical hypothesis: Empirical hypothesis can be tested via experiments and observation. • Statistical hypothesis: A statistical hypothesis utilizes statistical models to draw conclusions about broader populations.

Wow! You really simplified your explanation that even dummies would find it easy to comprehend. Thank you so much.

Thanks a lot for your valuable guidance.

I enjoy reading the post. Hypotheses are actually an intrinsic part in a study. It bridges the research question and the methodology of the study.

Useful piece!

This is awesome.Wow.

It very interesting to read the topic, can you guide me any specific example of hypothesis process establish throw the Demand and supply of the specific product in market

Nicely explained

It is really a useful for me Kindly give some examples of hypothesis

It was a well explained content ,can you please give me an example with the null and alternative hypothesis illustrated

clear and concise. thanks.

So Good so Amazing

Good to learn

Thanks a lot for explaining to my level of understanding

Explained well and in simple terms. Quick read! Thank you

It awesome. It has really positioned me in my research project

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What is a Research Hypothesis And How to Write it?

June 12, 2023 | By Hitesh Bhasin | Filed Under: Marketing

A research hypothesis can be defined as a clear, specific and predictive statement that states the possible outcome of a scientific study. The result of the research study is based on previous research studies and can be tested by scientific research.

The research hypothesis is written before the beginning of any scientific research or data collection .

Table of Contents

What is Research Hypothesis?

The research hypothesis is the first step and basis of all research endeavours. The research hypothesis shows what you want to prove with your research study. Therefore, the research hypothesis should be written first before you begin the study, no matter what kind of research study you are conducting.

The research hypothesis shows the direction to the researcher conducting the research. It states what the researcher expects to find from the study. It is a tentative answer that guides the entire research study.

Writing a research hypothesis is not an easy task. It requires skills to write a testable research hypothesis. The researcher is required to study the research done by other researchers on the same subject and find out the loopholes in those researches to make it the basis for their research.

Make sure to consider the general research question posed in the study before jumping directly to write a research hypothesis. Pointing out the exact question can be very difficult for researchers as most researchers are usually not aware of what they are trying to find from their research study. Moreover, the added excitement to conduct the study makes it even more difficult for the researchers to pin down the exact research hypothesis.

There are two primary criteria to develop a reasonable research hypothesis. First, the research hypothesis should be researchable and second; it must be interesting. By researchable, we mean that the question in the research hypothesis statement should be able to be answered with the help of science and the answer to the question should be answerable within a reasonable period.

The research hypothesis being interesting means that the research question should be valuable in the context of the ongoing scientific research of the topic.

Let us learn about the research hypothesis in quantitative and qualitative studies:

Research hypothesis in Quantitative studies

The research hypothesis in a quantitative study consists of one independent variable and one dependent variable, and the research hypothesis mentions the expected relationship between both of the variables.

The independent variable is mentioned first in the research hypothesis followed by explanations and results, etc. and then the dependent variable is specified. Make sure that the variables are referred to in the same order as they are mentioned in the research hypothesis; otherwise, there are chances that your readers get confused while reading your research proposal .

When both variables are used in continuous nature, then it is easy to describe negative or positive relationships between both of them. In the case of categorical variables, the hypothesis statement about which category of independent variables is associated with which group of dependent variables.

It is good to represent the research hypothesis in directional format. That means, the statement is made about the expected relationship between the variables based on past research, the study of existing research, on an educational guess , or only by observation.

Additionally, the null hypothesis can also be used between two variables which state that there is no relationship between the variables. The null hypothesis is the basis of all types of statistical research.

Lastly, a simple research hypothesis for quantitative research should provide a direction for the study of the relationship between two variables. Still, it should also use phrases like “tend to” or “in general” to soften the tone of the hypothesis.

Research hypothesis in qualitative research

The role of the research hypothesis in qualitative research is different as compared to its role in quantitative research. The research hypothesis is not developed at the beginning of the research because of the inductive nature of the qualitative studies.

The research hypothesis is introduced during the iterative process of data collection and the Interpretation of the data. The research hypothesis helps the researchers ask more questions and look for answers for disconfirming evidence.

The qualitative study is dependent on the questions and subquestions asked by the researchers at the beginning of the qualitative research. Generally, in qualitative studies one or two central questions are developed and based on these central questions a series of five to ten subquestions is built and these sub-questions are further used to develop central questions for the research purpose.

In qualitative studies, these questions are directly asked the participant of the research study usually through focus groups or in-depth interviews. This is done to develop an understanding between participants of the study and the researchers. This helps in creating a collaborative experience between the two.

Variables in hypothesis

In research studies like correlational research and experimental studies, a hypothesis shows a relationship between two or more variables. There is an independent variable and a dependent variable.

An independent variable is a variable that a researcher can control and change, whereas, a dependent variable is a variable that the researcher measures and observes.

For example, regular exercise lowers the chances of a heart attack. In this example, the regular exercise is an independent variable and probabilities of occurrence of heart attack is a dependent variable that researchers can measure by observation.

How to develop a reasonable research hypothesis?

A research hypothesis plays an essential role in the research study. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an accurate and precise research hypothesis. In this section, you will learn how to develop a reasonable research hypothesis. The following are the steps involved in developing a research hypothesis.

Step 1. Have a question?

The first step involved in writing a research hypothesis is having a question that you want to answer. This question should be specific and within the scope of your research area. Make sure that the question that you ask is researchable within the time duration of your research study. The examples of research hypothesis questions can be

• Do students who attend classes regularly score more in exams?
• Do people prefer to buy products that have a high price as compared to the other similar products available in the market ?

Step 2. Do some preliminary research:

Preliminary research is conducted before a researcher decides his research hypothesis. In the preliminary research, all the knowledge available about the question is collected by studying the theories and previous studies.

Having this knowledge helps the researchers to form educational assumptions about the outcomes of the research. At this stage, the researcher might prepare a conceptual framework to determine which variable should be studied and what you think is the relationship between the different variables.

The preliminary study also helps the researcher to change the topic if he feels the problem doesn’t have much scope for research.

Step 3. Formulation of hypothesis:

At this stage, the final research hypothesis is formulated. At this stage, the researcher has some idea of what he should expect from the research study. Write the answer to the question of research hypothesis in concise and clear sentences.

The clearer the research hypothesis, the easier will be for researchers to conduct the research.

Step 4. Refine the final hypothesis:

It is essential to make sure that your research hypothesis is testable and specific. You can define a hypothesis in different ways, but you should make sure that all the words that you use in your research hypothesis have precise definitions.

Besides, your hypothesis should contain a set of variables, the relationship between the variables, specific group being studied, and already predicted the outcome of the research.

Step 5. Use three methods to phrase your hypothesis:

They establish a clear relationship between variables, write the hypothesis in if.. then form. The first part of the sentence should be an independent variable, and the second part of the variable should state the dependent variable.

For example, if a student attends 100% classes in a semester, then he will score more than 90% in the exams.

In academic research, the research hypotheses are formed in terms of correlations or effects. In such hypotheses, the relationship between the variables is directly stated in the research hypothesis.

For example, the high numbers of lectures attended by students have a positive impact on their results.

When you are writing a research hypothesis to compare two groups, the hypothesis should state what the differences you are expecting to find in both the groups are.

For example, the students who have more than 70% attendance will score better in exams than the students who have lower than 50% attendance.

Step 6. Write the Null hypothesis:

A null hypothesis is written when research involves statistical hypothesis testing. A null hypothesis when there is no specific relationship between the variables.

It is a default position that shows that two variables used in the hypothesis are not related to each other. A null hypothesis is usually written as H0, and alternative hypotheses are written as H1 or Ha.

Importance of Research Hypothesis

Research plays an essential role in every field. To experiment, a researcher needs to make sure that the research he wants to conduct is testable. A research hypothesis is developed after conducting a preliminary study.

A preliminary study is the study of previous studies done by researchers and the study of research papers written on the same concept. With the help of the research hypothesis, a researcher makes sure that he is not hidden towards a dead end, and it works as a direction map for the researcher.

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Hitesh Bhasin is the CEO of Marketing91 and has over a decade of experience in the marketing field. He is an accomplished author of thousands of insightful articles, including in-depth analyses of brands and companies. Holding an MBA in Marketing, Hitesh manages several offline ventures, where he applies all the concepts of Marketing that he writes about.

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Marketing Research Design & Analysis 2019

5 hypothesis testing.

This chapter is primarily based on Field, A., Miles J., & Field, Z. (2012): Discovering Statistics Using R. Sage Publications, chapters 5, 9, 15, 18 .

You can download the corresponding R-Code here

5.1 Introduction

We test hypotheses because we are confined to taking samples – we rarely work with the entire population. In the previous chapter, we introduced the standard error (i.e., the standard deviation of a large number of hypothetical samples) as an estimate of how well a particular sample represents the population. We also saw how we can construct confidence intervals around the sample mean \(\bar x\) by computing \(SE_{\bar x}\) as an estimate of \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) using \(s\) as an estimate of \(\sigma\) and calculating the 95% CI as \(\bar x \pm 1.96 * SE_{\bar x}\) . Although we do not know the true population mean ( \(\mu\) ), we might have an hypothesis about it and this would tell us how the corresponding sampling distribution looks like. Based on the sampling distribution of the hypothesized population mean, we could then determine the probability of a given sample assuming that the hypothesis is true .

Let us again begin by assuming we know the entire population using the example of music listening times among students from the previous example. As a reminder, the following plot shows the distribution of music listening times in the population of WU students.

In this example, the population mean ( \(\mu\) ) is equal to 19.98, and the population standard deviation \(\sigma\) is equal to 14.15.

5.1.1 The null hypothesis

Let us assume that we were planning to take a random sample of 50 students from this population and our hypothesis was that the mean listening time is equal to some specific value \(\mu_0\) , say \(10\) . This would be our null hypothesis . The null hypothesis refers to the statement that is being tested and is usually a statement of the status quo, one of no difference or no effect. In our example, the null hypothesis would state that there is no difference between the true population mean \(\mu\) and the hypothesized value \(\mu_0\) (in our example \(10\) ), which can be expressed as follows:

\[ H_0: \mu = \mu_0 \] When conducting research, we are usually interested in providing evidence against the null hypothesis. If we then observe sufficient evidence against it and our estimate is said to be significant. If the null hypothesis is rejected, this is taken as support for the alternative hypothesis . The alternative hypothesis assumes that some difference exists, which can be expressed as follows:

\[ H_1: \mu \neq \mu_0 \] Accepting the alternative hypothesis in turn will often lead to changes in opinions or actions. Note that while the null hypothesis may be rejected, it can never be accepted based on a single test. If we fail to reject the null hypothesis, it means that we simply haven’t collected enough evidence against the null hypothesis to disprove it. In classical hypothesis testing, there is no way to determine whether the null hypothesis is true. Hypothesis testing provides a means to quantify to what extent the data from our sample is in line with the null hypothesis.

In order to quantify the concept of “sufficient evidence” we look at the theoretical distribution of the sample means given our null hypothesis and the sample standard error. Using the available information we can infer the sampling distribution for our null hypothesis. Recall that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution (i.e., the standard error of the mean) is given by \(\sigma_{\bar x}={\sigma \over \sqrt{n}}\) , and thus can be computed as follows:

Since we know from the central limit theorem that the sampling distribution is normal for large enough samples, we can now visualize the expected sampling distribution if our null hypothesis was in fact true (i.e., if the was no difference between the true population mean and the hypothesized mean of 10).

We also know that 95% of the probability is within 1.96 standard deviations from the mean. Values higher than that are rather unlikely, if our hypothesis about the population mean was indeed true. This is shown by the shaded area, also known as the “rejection region”. To test our hypothesis that the population mean is equal to \(10\) , let us take a random sample from the population.

The mean listening time in the sample (black line) \(\bar x\) is 18.59. We can already see from the graphic above that such a value is rather unlikely under the hypothesis that the population mean is \(10\) . Intuitively, such a result would therefore provide evidence against our null hypothesis. But how could we quantify specifically how unlikely it is to obtain such a value and decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis? Significance tests can be used to provide answers to these questions.

5.1.2 Statistical inference on a sample

5.1.2.1 test statistic, 5.1.2.1.1 z-scores.

Let’s go back to the sampling distribution above. We know that 95% of all values will fall within 1.96 standard deviations from the mean. So if we could express the distance between our sample mean and the null hypothesis in terms of standard deviations, we could make statements about the probability of getting a sample mean of the observed magnitude (or more extreme values). Essentially, we would like to know how many standard deviations ( \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) ) our sample mean ( \(\bar x\) ) is away from the population mean if the null hypothesis was true ( \(\mu_0\) ). This can be formally expressed as follows:

\[ \bar x- \mu_0 = z \sigma_{\bar x} \]

In this equation, z will tell us how many standard deviations the sample mean \(\bar x\) is away from the null hypothesis \(\mu_0\) . Solving for z gives us:

\[ z = {\bar x- \mu_0 \over \sigma_{\bar x}}={\bar x- \mu_0 \over \sigma / \sqrt{n}} \]

This standardized value (or “z-score”) is also referred to as a test statistic . Let’s compute the test statistic for our example above:

To make a decision on whether the difference can be deemed statistically significant, we now need to compare this calculated test statistic to a meaningful threshold. In order to do so, we need to decide on a significance level \(\alpha\) , which expresses the probability of finding an effect that does not actually exist (i.e., Type I Error). You can find a detailed discussion of this point at the end of this chapter. For now, we will adopt the widely accepted significance level of 5% and set \(\alpha\) to 0.05. The critical value for the normal distribution and \(\alpha\) = 0.05 can be computed using the qnorm() function as follows:

We use 0.975 and not 0.95 since we are running a two-sided test and need to account for the rejection region at the other end of the distribution. Recall that for the normal distribution, 95% of the total probability falls within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean, so that higher (absolute) values provide evidence against the null hypothesis. Generally, we speak of a statistically significant effect if the (absolute) calculated test statistic is larger than the (absolute) critical value. We can easily check if this is the case in our example:

Since the absolute value of the calculated test statistic is larger than the critical value, we would reject \(H_0\) and conclude that the true population mean \(\mu\) is significantly different from the hypothesized value \(\mu_0 = 10\) .

5.1.2.1.2 t-statistic

You may have noticed that the formula for the z-score above assumes that we know the true population standard deviation ( \(\sigma\) ) when computing the standard deviation of the sampling distribution ( \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) ) in the denominator. However, the population standard deviation is usually not known in the real world and therefore represents another unknown population parameter which we have to estimate from the sample. We saw in the previous chapter that we usually use \(s\) as an estimate of \(\sigma\) and \(SE_{\bar x}\) as and estimate of \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) . Intuitively, we should be more conservative regarding the critical value that we used above to assess whether we have a significant effect to reflect this uncertainty about the true population standard deviation. That is, the threshold for a “significant” effect should be higher to safeguard against falsely claiming a significant effect when there is none. If we replace \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) by it’s estimate \(SE_{\bar x}\) in the formula for the z-score, we get a new test statistic (i.e, the t-statistic ) with its own distribution (the t-distribution ):

\[ t = {\bar x- \mu_0 \over SE_{\bar x}}={\bar x- \mu_0 \over s / \sqrt{n}} \]

Here, \(\bar X\) denotes the sample mean and \(s\) the sample standard deviation. The t-distribution has more probability in its “tails”, i.e. farther away from the mean. This reflects the higher uncertainty introduced by replacing the population standard deviation by its sample estimate. Intuitively, this is particularly relevant for small samples, since the uncertainty about the true population parameters decreases with increasing sample size. This is reflected by the fact that the exact shape of the t-distribution depends on the degrees of freedom , which is the sample size minus one (i.e., \(n-1\) ). To see this, the following graph shows the t-distribution with different degrees of freedom for a two-tailed test and \(\alpha = 0.05\) . The grey curve shows the normal distribution.

Notice that as \(n\) gets larger, the t-distribution gets closer and closer to the normal distribution, reflecting the fact that the uncertainty introduced by \(s\) is reduced. To summarize, we now have an estimate for the standard deviation of the distribution of the sample mean (i.e., \(SE_{\bar x}\) ) and an appropriate distribution that takes into account the necessary uncertainty (i.e., the t-distribution). Let us now compute the t-statistic according to the formula above:

Notice that the value of the t-statistic is higher compared to the z-score (4.29). This can be attributed to the fact that by using the \(s\) as and estimate of \(\sigma\) , we underestimate the true population standard deviation. Hence, the critical value would need to be larger to adjust for this. This is what the t-distribution does. Let us compute the critical value from the t-distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom.

Again, we use 0.975 and not 0.95 since we are running a two-sided test and need to account for the rejection region at the other end of the distribution. Notice that the new critical value based on the t-distributionis larger, to reflect the uncertainty when estimating \(\sigma\) from \(s\) . Now we can see that the calculated test statistic is still larger than the critical value.

The following graphics shows that the calculated test statistic (red line) falls into the rejection region so that in our example, we would reject the null hypothesis that the true population mean is equal to \(10\) .

Decision: Reject \(H_0\) , given that the calculated test statistic is larger than critical value.

Something to keep in mind here is the fact the test statistic is a function of the sample size. This, as \(n\) gets large, the test statistic gets larger as well and we are more likely to find a significant effect. This reflects the decrease in uncertainty about the true population mean as our sample size increases.

5.1.2.2 P-values

In the previous section, we computed the test statistic, which tells us how close our sample is to the null hypothesis. The p-value corresponds to the probability that the test statistic would take a value as extreme or more extreme than the one that we actually observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true . It is important to note that this is a conditional probability : we compute the probability of observing a sample mean (or a more extreme value) conditional on the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The pnorm() function can be used to compute this probability. It is the cumulative probability distribution function of the `normal distribution. Cumulative probability means that the function returns the probability that the test statistic will take a value less than or equal to the calculated test statistic given the degrees of freedom. However, we are interested in obtaining the probability of observing a test statistic larger than or equal to the calculated test statistic under the null hypothesis (i.e., the p-value). Thus, we need to subtract the cumulative probability from 1. In addition, since we are running a two-sided test, we need to multiply the probability by 2 to account for the rejection region at the other side of the distribution.

This value corresponds to the probability of observing a mean equal to or larger than the one we obtained from our sample, if the null hypothesis was true. As you can see, this probability is very low. A small p-value signals that it is unlikely to observe the calculated test statistic under the null hypothesis. To decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis, we would now compare this value to the level of significance ( \(\alpha\) ) that we chose for our test. For this example, we adopt the widely accepted significance level of 5%, so any test results with a p-value < 0.05 would be deemed statistically significant. Note that the p-value is directly related to the value of the test statistic. The relationship is such that the higher (lower) the value of the test statistic, the lower (higher) the p-value.

Decision: Reject \(H_0\) , given that the p-value is smaller than 0.05.

5.1.2.3 Confidence interval

For a given statistic calculated for a sample of observations (e.g., listening times), a 95% confidence interval can be constructed such that in 95% of samples, the true value of the true population mean will fall within its limits. If the parameter value specified in the null hypothesis (here \(10\) ) does not lie within the bounds, we reject \(H_0\) . Building on what we learned about confidence intervals in the previous chapter, the 95% confidence interval based on the t-distribution can be computed as follows:

\[ CI_{lower} = {\bar x} - t_{1-{\alpha \over 2}} * SE_{\bar x} \\ CI_{upper} = {\bar x} + t_{1-{\alpha \over 2}} * SE_{\bar x} \]

It is easy to compute this interval manually:

The interpretation of this interval is as follows: if we would (hypothetically) take 100 samples and calculated the mean and confidence interval for each of them, then the true population mean would be included in 95% of these intervals. The CI is informative when reporting the result of your test, since it provides an estimate of the uncertainty associated with the test result. From the test statistic or the p-value alone, it is not easy to judge in which range the true population parameter is located. The CI provides an estimate of this range.

Decision: Reject \(H_0\) , given that the parameter value from the null hypothesis ( \(10\) ) is not included in the interval.

To summarize, you can see that we arrive at the same conclusion (i.e., reject \(H_0\) ), irrespective if we use the test statistic, the p-value, or the confidence interval. However, keep in mind that rejecting the null hypothesis does not prove the alternative hypothesis (we can merely provide support for it). Rather, think of the p-value as the chance of obtaining the data we’ve collected assuming that the null hypothesis is true. You should report the confidence interval to provide an estimate of the uncertainty associated with your test results.

5.1.3 Choosing the right test

The test statistic, as we have seen, measures how close the sample is to the null hypothesis and often follows a well-known distribution (e.g., normal, t, or chi-square). To select the correct test, various factors need to be taken into consideration. Some examples are:

• On what scale are your variables measured (categorical vs. continuous)?
• Do you want to test for relationships or differences?
• If you test for differences, how many groups would you like to test?
• For parametric tests, are the assumptions fulfilled?

The previous discussion used a one sample t-test as an example, which requires that variable is measured on an interval or ratio scale. If you are confronted with other settings, the following flow chart provides a rough guideline on selecting the correct test:

Flowchart for selecting an appropriate test (source: McElreath, R. (2016): Statistical Rethinking, p. 2)

For a detailed overview over the different type of tests, please also refer to this overview by the UCLA.

5.1.3.1 Parametric vs. non-parametric tests

A basic distinction can be made between parametric and non-parametric tests. Parametric tests require that variables are measured on an interval or ratio scale and that the sampling distribution follows a known distribution. Non-Parametric tests on the other hand do not require the sampling distribution to be normally distributed (a.k.a. “assumption free tests”). These tests may be used when the variable of interest is measured on an ordinal scale or when the parametric assumptions do not hold. They often rely on ranking the data instead of analyzing the actual scores. By ranking the data, information on the magnitude of differences is lost. Thus, parametric tests are more powerful if the sampling distribution is normally distributed. In this chapter, we will first focus on parametric tests and cover non-parametric tests later.

5.1.3.2 One-tailed vs. two-tailed test

For some tests you may choose between a one-tailed test versus a two-tailed test . The choice depends on the hypothesis you specified, i.e., whether you specified a directional or a non-directional hypotheses. In the example above, we used a non-directional hypothesis . That is, we stated that the mean is different from the comparison value \(\mu_0\) , but we did not state the direction of the effect. A directional hypothesis states the direction of the effect. For example, we might test whether the population mean is smaller than a comparison value:

\[ H_0: \mu \ge \mu_0 \\ H_1: \mu < \mu_0 \]

Similarly, we could test whether the population mean is larger than a comparison value:

\[ H_0: \mu \le \mu_0 \\ H_1: \mu > \mu_0 \]

Connected to the decision of how to phrase the hypotheses (directional vs. non-directional) is the choice of a one-tailed test versus a two-tailed test . Let’s first think about the meaning of a one-tailed test. Using a significance level of 0.05, a one-tailed test means that 5% of the total area under the probability distribution of our test statistic is located in one tail. Thus, under a one-tailed test, we test for the possibility of the relationship in one direction only, disregarding the possibility of a relationship in the other direction. In our example, a one-tailed test could test either if the mean listening time is significantly larger or smaller compared to the control condition, but not both. Depending on the direction, the mean listening time is significantly larger (smaller) if the test statistic is located in the top (bottom) 5% of its probability distribution.

The following graph shows the critical values that our test statistic would need to surpass so that the difference between the population mean and the comparison value would be deemed statistically significant.

It can be seen that under a one-sided test, the rejection region is at one end of the distribution or the other. In a two-sided test, the rejection region is split between the two tails. As a consequence, the critical value of the test statistic is smaller using a one-tailed test, meaning that it has more power to detect an effect. Having said that, in most applications, we would like to be able catch effects in both directions, simply because we can often not rule out that an effect might exist that is not in the hypothesized direction. For example, if we would conduct a one-tailed test for a mean larger than some specified value but the mean turns out to be substantially smaller, then testing a one-directional hypothesis ($H_0: _0 $) would not allow us to conclude that there is a significant effect because there is not rejection at this end of the distribution.

5.1.4 Summary

As we have seen, the process of hypothesis testing consists of various steps:

• Formulate null and alternative hypotheses
• Select an appropriate test
• Choose the level of significance ( \(\alpha\) )
• Descriptive statistics and data visualization
• Conduct significance test
• Report results and draw a marketing conclusion

In the following, we will go through the individual steps using examples for different tests.

5.2 One sample t-test

The example we used in the introduction was an example of the one sample t-test and we computed all statistics by hand to explain the underlying intuition. When you conduct hypothesis tests using R, you do not need to calculate these statistics by hand, since there are build-in routines to conduct the steps for you. Let us use the same example again to see how you would conduct hypothesis tests in R.

1. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses

The null hypothesis states that there is no difference between the true population mean \(\mu\) and the hypothesized value (i.e., \(10\) ), while the alternative hypothesis states the opposite:

\[ H_0: \mu = 10 \\ H_1: \mu \neq 10 \]

2. Select an appropriate test

Because we would like to test if the mean of a variable is different from a specified threshold, the one-sample t-test is appropriate. The assumptions of the test are 1) that the variable is measured using an interval or ratio scale, and 2) that the sampling distribution is normal. Both assumptions are met since 1) listening time is a ratio scale, and 2) we deem the sample size (n = 50) large enough to assume a normal sampling distribution according to the central limit theorem.

3. Choose the level of significance

We choose the conventional 5% significance level.

4. Descriptive statistics and data visualization

Provide descriptive statistics using the stat.desc() function:

From this, we can already see that the mean is different from the hypothesized value. The question however remains, whether this difference is significantly different, given the sample size and the variability in the data. Since we only have one continuous variable, we can visualize the distribution in a histogram.

5. Conduct significance test

In the beginning of the chapter, we saw, how you could conduct significance test by hand. However, R has built-in routines that you can use to conduct the analyses. The t.test() function can be used to conduct the test. To test if the listening time among WU students was 10, you can use the following code:

Note that if you would have stated a directional hypothesis (i.e., the mean is either greater or smaller than 10 hours), you could easily amend the code to conduct a one sided test by changing the argument alternative from 'two.sided' to either 'less' or 'greater' .

6. Report results and draw a marketing conclusion

Note that the results are the same as above, when we computed the test by hand. You could summarize the results as follows:

On average, the listening times in our sample were different form 10 hours per month (Mean = 18.99 hours, SE = 1.78). This difference was significant t(49) = 5.058, p < .05 (95% CI = [15.42; 22.56]). Based on this evidence, we can conclude that the mean in our sample is significantly lower compared to the hypothesized population mean of \(10\) hours, providing evidence against the null hypothesis.

Note that in the reporting above, the number 49 in parenthesis refers to the degrees of freedom that are available from the output.

5.3 Comparing two means

In the one-sample test above, we tested the hypothesis that the population mean has some specific value \(\mu_0\) using data from only one sample. In marketing (as in many other disciplines), you will often be confronted with a situation where you wish to compare the means of two groups. For example, you may conduct an experiment and randomly split your sample into two groups, one of which receives a treatment (experimental group) while the other doesn’t (control group). In this case, the units (e.g., participants, products) in each group are different (‘between-subjects design’) and the samples are said to be independent. Hence, we would use a independent-means t-test . If you run an experiment with two experimental conditions and the same units (e.g., participants, products) were observed in both experimental conditions, the sample is said to be dependent in the sense that you have the same units in each group (‘within-subjects design’). In this case, we would need to conduct an dependent-means t-test . Both tests are described in the following sections, beginning with the independent-means t-test.

5.3.1 Independent-means t-test

Using an independent-means t-test, we can compare the means of two possibly different populations. It is, for example, quite common for online companies to test new service features by running an experiment and randomly splitting their website visitors into two groups: one is exposed to the website with the new feature (experimental group) and the other group is not exposed to the new feature (control group). This is a typical A/B-Test scenario.

As an example, imagine that a music streaming service would like to introduce a new playlist feature that let’s their users access playlists created by other users. The goal is to analyse how the new service feature impacts the listening time of users. The service randomly splits a representative subset of their users into two groups and collects data about their listening times over one month. Let’s create a data set to simulate such a scenario.

This data set contains two variables: the variable hours indicates the music listening times (in hours) and the variable group indicates from which group the observation comes, where ‘A’ refers to the control group (with the standard service) and ‘B’ refers to the experimental group (with the new playlist feature). Let’s first look at the descriptive statistics by group using the describeBy function:

From this, we can already see that there is a difference in means between groups A and B. We can also see that the number of observations is different, as is the standard deviation. The question that we would like to answer is whether there is a significant difference in mean listening times between the groups. Remember that different users are contained in each group (‘between-subjects design’) and that the observations in one group are independent of the observations in the other group. Before we will see how you can easily conduct an independent-means t-test, let’s go over some theory first.

5.3.1.1 Theory

As a starting point, let us label the unknown population mean of group A (control group) in our experiment \(\mu_1\) , and that of group B (experimental group) \(\mu_2\) . In this setting, the null hypothesis would state that the mean in group A is equal to the mean in group B:

\[ H_0: \mu_1=\mu_2 \]

This is equivalent to stating that the difference between the two groups ( \(\delta\) ) is zero:

\[ H_0: \mu_1 - \mu_2=0=\delta \]

That is, \(\delta\) is the new unknown population parameter, so that the null and alternative hypothesis become:

\[ H_0: \delta = 0 \\ H_1: \delta \ne 0 \]

Remember that we usually don’t have access to the entire population so that we can not observe \(\delta\) and have to estimate is from a sample statistic, which we define as \(d = \bar x_1-\bar x_2\) , i.e., the difference between the sample means from group a ( \(\bar x_1\) ) and group b ( \(\bar x_2\) ). But can we really estimate \(d\) from \(\delta\) ? Remember from the previous chapter, that we could estimate \(\mu\) from \(\bar x\) , because if we (hypothetically) take a larger number of samples, the distribution of the means of these samples (the sampling distribution) will be normally distributed and its mean will be (in the limit) equal to the population mean. It turns out that we can use the same underlying logic here. The above samples were drawn from two different populations with \(\mu_1\) and \(\mu_2\) . Let us compute the difference in means between these two populations:

This means that the true difference between the mean listening times of groups a and b is -7.42. Let us now repeat the exercise from the previous chapter: let us repeatedly draw a large number of \(20,000\) random samples of 100 users from each of these populations, compute the difference (i.e., \(d\) , our estimate of \(\delta\) ), store the difference for each draw and create a histogram of \(d\) .

This gives us the sampling distribution of the mean differences between the samples. You will notice that this distribution follows a normal distribution and is centered around the true difference between the populations. This means that, on average, the difference between two sample means \(d\) is a good estimate of \(\delta\) . In our example, the difference between \(\bar x_1\) and \(\bar x_2\) is:

Now that we have \(d\) as an estimate of \(\delta\) , how can we find out if the observed difference is significantly different from the null hypothesis (i.e., \(\delta = 0\) )?

Recall from the previous section, that the standard deviation of the sampling distribution \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) (i.e., the standard error) gives us indication about the precision of our estimate. Further recall that the standard error can be calculated as \(\sigma_{\bar x}={\sigma \over \sqrt{n}}\) . So how can we calculate the standard error of the difference between two population means? According to the variance sum law , to find the variance of the sampling distribution of differences, we merely need to add together the variances of the sampling distributions of the two populations that we are comparing. To find the standard error, we only need to take the square root of the variance (because the standard error is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution and the standard deviation is the square root of the variance), so that we get:

\[ \sigma_{\bar x_1-\bar x_2} = \sqrt{{\sigma_1^2 \over n_1}+{\sigma_2^2 \over n_2}} \]

But recall that we don’t actually know the true population standard deviation, so we use \(SE_{\bar x_1-\bar x_2}\) as an estimate of \(\sigma_{\bar x_1-\bar x_2}\) :

\[ SE_{\bar x_1-\bar x_2} = \sqrt{{s_1^2 \over n_1}+{s_2^2 \over n_2}} \]

Hence, for our example, we can calculate the standard error as follows:

Recall from above that we can calculate the t-statistic as:

\[ t= {\bar x - \mu_0 \over {s \over \sqrt{n}}} \]

Exchanging \(\bar x\) for \(d\) , we get

\[ t= {(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) - (\mu_1 - \mu_2) \over {\sqrt{{s_1^2 \over n_1}+{s_2^2 \over n_2}}}} \]

Note that according to our hypothesis \(\mu_1-\mu_2=0\) , so that we can calculate the t-statistic as:

Following the example of our one sample t-test above, we would now need to compare this calculated test statistic to a critical value in order to assess if \(d\) is sufficiently far away from the null hypothesis to be statistically significant. To do this, we would need to know the exact t-distribution, which depends on the degrees of freedom. The problem is that deriving the degrees of freedom in this case is not that obvious. If we were willing to assume that \(\sigma_1=\sigma_2\) , the correct t-distribution has \(n_1 -1 + n_2-1\) degrees of freedom (i.e., the sum of the degrees of freedom of the two samples). However, because in real life we don not know if \(\sigma_1=\sigma_2\) , we need to account for this additional uncertainty. We will not go into detail here, but R automatically uses a sophisticated approach to correct the degrees of freedom called the Welch’s correction, as we will see in the subsequent application.

5.3.1.2 Application

The section above explained the theory behind the independent-means t-test and showed how to compute the statistics manually. Obviously you don’t have to compute these statistics by hand in this section shows you how to conduct an independent-means t-test in R using the example from above.

We wish to analyze whether there is a significant difference in music listening times between groups A and B. So our null hypothesis is that the means from the two populations are the same (i.e., there is no difference), while the alternative hypothesis states the opposite:

\[ H_0: \mu_1=\mu_2\\ H_1: \mu_1 \ne \mu_2 \]

Since we have a ratio scaled variable (i.e., listening times) and two independent groups, where the mean of one sample is independent of the group of the second sample (i.e., the groups contain different units), the independent-means t-test is appropriate.

We can compute the descriptive statistics for each group separately, using the describeBy() function:

This already shows us that the mean between groups A and B are different. We can visualize the data using a plot of means, boxplot, and a histogram.

To conduct the independent means t-test, we can use the t.test() function:

The results showed that listening times were higher in the experimental group B (Mean = 28.50, SE = 1.7) compared to the control group (Mean = 18.11, SE = 1.22). This means that the listening times were 10.39 hours higher on average in the experimental group (B), compared to the control group (A). An independent-means t-test showed that this difference is significant t(195.73) = -4.9646, p < .05 (95% CI = [-14.514246,-6.261264]).

5.3.2 Dependent-means t-test

While the independent-means t-test is used when different units (e.g., participants, products) were assigned to the different condition, the dependent-means t-test is used when there are two experimental conditions and the same units (e.g., participants, products) were observed in both experimental conditions.

Imagine, for example, a slightly different experimental setup for the above experiment. Imagine that we do not assign different users to the groups, but that a sample of 100 users gets to use the music streaming service with the new feature for one month and we compare the music listening times of these users during the month of the experiment with the listening time in the previous month. Let us generate data for this example:

Note that the data set has almost the same structure as before only that we know have two variables representing the listening times of each user in the month before the experiment and during the month of the experiment when the new feature was tested.

5.3.2.1 Theory

In this case, we want to test the hypothesis that there is no difference in mean the mean listening times between the two months. This can be expressed as follows:

\[ H_0: \mu_D = 0 \\ \] Note that the hypothesis only refers to one population, since both observations come from the same units (i.e., users). To use consistent notation, we replace \(\mu_D\) with \(\delta\) and get:

\[ H_0: \delta = 0 \\ H_1: \delta \neq 0 \]

where \(\delta\) denotes the difference between the observed listening times from the two consecutive months of the same users . As is the previous example, since we do not observe the entire population, we estimate \(\delta\) based on the sample using \(d\) , which is the difference in mean listening time between the two months for our sample. Note that we assume that everything else (e.g., number of new releases) remained constant over the two month to keep it simple. We can show as above that the sampling distribution follows a normal distribution with a mean that is (in the limit) the same as the population mean. This means, again, that the difference in sample means is a good estimate for the difference in population means. Let’s compute a new variable \(d\) , which is the difference between two month.

Note that we now have a new variable, which is the difference in listening times (in hours) between the two months. The mean of this difference is:

Again, we use \(SE_{\bar x}\) as an estimate of \(\sigma_{\bar x}\) :

\[ SE_{\bar d}={s \over \sqrt{n}} \] Hence, we can compute the standard error as:

The test statistic is therefore:

\[ t = {\bar d- \mu_0 \over SE_{\bar d}} \] on 99 (i.e., n-1) degrees of freedom. Now we can compute the t-statistic as follows:

Note that in the case of the dependent-means t-test, we only base our hypothesis on one population and hence there is only one population variance. This is because in the dependent sample test, the observations come from the same observational units (i.e., users). Hence, there is no unsystematic variation due to potential differences between users that were assigned to the experimental groups. This means that the influence of unobserved factors (unsystematic variation) relative to the variation due to the experimental manipulation (systematic variation) is not as strong in the dependent-means test compared to the independent-means test and we don’t need to correct for differences in the population variances.

5.3.2.2 Application

Again, we don’t have to compute all this by hand since the t.test(...) function can be used to do it for us. Now we have to use the argument paired=TRUE to let R know that we are working with dependent observations.

We would like to the test if there is a difference in music listening times between the two consecutive months, so our null hypothesis is that there is no difference, while the alternative hypothesis states the opposite:

\[ H_0: \mu_D = 0 \\ H_0: \mu_D \ne 0 \]

Since we have a ratio scaled variable (i.e., listening times) and two observations of the same group of users (i.e., the groups contain the same units), the dependent-means t-test is appropriate.

We can compute the descriptive statistics for each month separately, using the describe() function:

This already shows us that the mean between the two months are different. We can visiualize the data using a plot of means, boxplot, and a histogram.

To plot the data, we need to do some restructuring first, since the variables are now stored in two different columns (“hours_a” and “hours_b”). This is also known as the “wide” format. To plot the data we need all observations to be stored in one variable. This is also known as the “long” format. We can use the melt(...) function from the reshape2 package to “melt” the two variable into one column to plot the data.

Now we are ready to plot the data:

To conduct the independent means t-test, we can use the t.test() function with the argument paired = TRUE :

On average, the same users used the service more when it included the new feature (M = 25.96, SE = 1.68) compared to the service without the feature (M = 20.99, SE = 1.34). This difference was significant t(99) = 2.3781, p < .05 (95% CI = [0.82, 9.12]).

5.3.3 Further considerations

5.3.3.1 type i and type ii errors.

When choosing the level of significance ( \(\alpha\) ). It is important to note that the choice of the significance level affects the type 1 and type 2 error:

• Type I error: When we believe there is a genuine effect in our population, when in fact there isn’t. Probability of type I error ( \(\alpha\) ) = level of significance.
• Type II error: When we believe that there is no effect in the population, when in fact there is.

This following table shows the possible outcomes of a test (retain vs. reject \(H_0\) ), depending on whether \(H_0\) is true or false in reality.

5.3.3.2 Significance level, sample size, power, and effect size

When you plan to conduct an experiment, there are some factors that are under direct control of the researcher:

• Significance level ( \(\alpha\) ) : The probability of finding an effect that does not genuinely exist.
• Sample size (n) : The number of observations in each group of the experimental design.

Unlike α and n, which are specified by the researcher, the magnitude of β depends on the actual value of the population parameter. In addition, β is influenced by the effect size (e.g., Cohen’s d), which can be used to determine a standardized measure of the magnitude of an observed effect. The following parameters are affected more indirectly:

• Power (1-β) : The probability of finding an effect that does genuinely exists.
• Effect size (d) : Standardized measure of the effect size under the alternate hypothesis.

Although β is unknown, it is related to α. For example, if we would like to be absolutely sure that we do not falsely identify an effect which does not exist (i.e., make a type I error), this means that the probability of identifying an effect that does exist (i.e., 1-β) decreases and vice versa. Thus, an extremely low value of α (e.g., α = 0.0001) will result in intolerably high β errors. A common approach is to set α=0.05 and 1-β=0.80.

Unlike the t-value of our test, the effect size (d) is unaffected by the sample size and can be categorized as follows (see Cohen, J. 1988):

• 0.2 (small effect)
• 0.5 (medium effect)
• 0.8 (large effect)

In order to test more subtle effects (smaller effect sizes), you need a larger sample size compared to the test of more obvious effects. In this paper , you can find a list of examples for different effect sizes and the number of observations you need to reliably find an effect of that magnitude. Although the exact effect size is unknown before the experiment, you might be able to make a guess about the effect size (e.g., based on previous studies).

If you wish to obtain a standardized measure of the effect, you may compute the effect size (Cohen’s d) using the cohensD() function from the lsr package. Using the examples from the independent-means t-test above, we would use:

According to the thresholds defined above, this effect would be judged to be a small-medium effect.

For the dependent-means t-test, we would use:

According to the thresholds defined above, this effect would also be judged to be a small-medium effect.

When constructing an experimental design, your goal should be to maximize the power of the test while maintaining an acceptable significance level and keeping the sample as small as possible. To achieve this goal, you may use the pwr package, which let’s you compute n , d , alpha , and power . You only need to specify three of the four input variables to get the fourth.

For example, what sample size do we need (per group) to identify an effect with d = 0.6, α = 0.05, and power = 0.8:

Or we could ask, what is the power of our test with 51 observations in each group, d = 0.6, and α = 0.05:

5.3.3.3 P-values, stopping rules and p-hacking

From my experience, students tend to place a lot of weight on p-values when interpreting their research findings. It is therefore important to note some points that hopefully help to put the meaning of a “significant” vs. “insignificant” test result into perspective.

Significant result

• Even if the probability of the effect being a chance result is small (e.g., less than .05) it doesn’t necessarily mean that the effect is important.
• Very small and unimportant effects can turn out to be statistically significant if the sample size is large enough.

Insignificant result

• If the probability of the effect occurring by chance is large (greater than .05), the alternative hypothesis is rejected. However, this does not mean that the null hypothesis is true.
• Although an effect might not be large enough to be anything other than a chance finding, it doesn’t mean that the effect is zero.
• In fact, two random samples will always have slightly different means that would deemed to be statistically significant if the samples were large enough.

Thus, you should not base your research conclusion on p-values alone!

It is also crucial to determine the sample size before you run the experiment or before you start your analysis. Why? Consider the following example:

• You run an experiment
• After each respondent you analyze the data and look at the mean difference between the two groups with a t-test
• You stop when you have a significant effect

This is called p-hacking and should be avoided at all costs. Assuming that both groups come from the same population (i.e., there is no difference in the means): What is the likelihood that the result will be significant at some point? In other words, what is the likelihood that you will draw the wrong conclusion from your data that there is an effect, while there is none? This is shown in the following graph using simulated data - the color red indicates significant test results that arise although there is no effect (i.e., false positives).

Figure 5.1: p-hacking (red indicates false positives)

5.4 Comparing several means

This chapter is primarily based on Field, A., Miles J., & Field, Z. (2012): Discovering Statistics Using R. Sage Publications, chapters 10 & 12 .

5.4.1 Introduction

In the previous section we learned how to compare means using a t-test. The t-test has some limitations since it only lets you compare 2 means and you can only use it with one independent variable. However, often we would like to compare means from 3 or more groups. In addition, there may be instances in which you manipulate more than one independent variable. For these applications, ANOVA (ANalysis Of VAriance) can be used. Hence, to conduct ANOVA you need:

• A metric dependent variable (i.e., measured using an interval or ratio scale)
• One or more non-metric (categorical) independent variables (also called factors)

A treatment is a particular combination of factor levels, or categories. One-way ANOVA is used when there is only one categorical variable (factor). In this case, a treatment is the same as a factor level. N-way ANOVA is used with two or more factors. Note that we are only going to talk about a single independent variable in the context of ANOVA. If you have multiple independent variables please refere to the chapter on Regression .

Let’s use an example to see how ANOVA works. Similar to the previous example it is also imaginable that the music streaming service experiments with a recommendation system for user created playlists. We now have three groups, the control group “A” with the current system, treatment group “B” who have access to playlists created by other users but are not shown recommendations and treatment group “C” who are shown recommendations for user created playlists. As always, we load and inspect the data first:

The null hypothesis, typically, is that all means are equal (non-directional hypothesis). Hence, in our case:

\[H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_2 = \mu_3\]

The alternative hypothesis is simply that the means are not all equal, i.e.,

\[H_1: \textrm{Means are not all equal}\]

If you wanted to put this in mathematical notation, you could also write:

\[H_1: \exists {i,j}: {\mu_i \ne \mu_j} \]

To get a first impression if there are any differences in listening times across the experimental groups, we use the describeBy(...) function from the psych package:

In addition, you should visualize the data using appropriate plots:

Figure 5.2: Plot of means

Note that ANOVA is an omnibus test, which means that we test for an overall difference between groups. Hence, the test will only tell you if the group means are different, but it won’t tell you exactly which groups are different from another.

So why don’t we then just conduct a series of t-tests for all combinations of groups (i.e., A vs. B, A vs. C, B vs. C)? The reason is that if we assume each test to be independent, then there is a 5% probability of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis (Type I error) for each test. In our case:

• A vs. B (α = 0.05)
• A vs. C (α = 0.05)
• B vs. C (α = 0.05)

This means that the overall probability of making a Type I error is 1-(0.95 3 ) = 0.143, since the probability of no Type I error is 0.95 for each of the three tests. Consequently, the Type I error probability would be 14.3%, which is above the conventional standard of 5%. This is also known as the family-wise or experiment-wise error.

5.4.2 Decomposing variance

The basic concept underlying ANOVA is the decomposition of the variance in the data. There are three variance components which we need to consider:

• We calculate how much variability there is between scores: Total sum of squares (SS T )
• We then calculate how much of this variability can be explained by the model we fit to the data (i.e., how much variability is due to the experimental manipulation): Model sum of squares (SS M )
• … and how much cannot be explained (i.e., how much variability is due to individual differences in performance): Residual sum of squares (SS R )

The following figure shows the different variance components using a generalized data matrix:

Decomposing variance

The total variation is determined by the variation between the categories (due to our experimental manipulation) and the within-category variation that is due to extraneous factors (e.g., promotion of artists on a social network):

\[SS_T= SS_M+SS_R\]

To get a better feeling how this relates to our data set, we can look at the data in a slightly different way. Specifically, we can use the dcast(...) function from the reshape2 package to convert the data to wide format:

In this example, X 1 from the generalized data matrix above would refer to the factor level “A”, X 2 to the level “B”, and X 3 to the level “C”. Y 11 refers to the first data point in the first row (i.e., “13”), Y 12 to the second data point in the first row (i.e., “21”), etc.. The grand mean ( \(\overline{Y}\) ) and the category means ( \(\overline{Y}_c\) ) can be easily computed:

To see how each variance component can be derived, let’s look at the data again. The following graph shows the individual observations by experimental group:

Figure 5.3: Sum of Squares

5.4.2.1 Total sum of squares

To compute the total variation in the data, we consider the difference between each observation and the grand mean. The grand mean is the mean over all observations in the data set. The vertical lines in the following plot measure how far each observation is away from the grand mean:

Figure 5.4: Total Sum of Squares

The formal representation of the total sum of squares (SS T ) is:

\[ SS_T= \sum_{i=1}^{N} (Y_i-\bar{Y})^2 \]

This means that we need to subtract the grand mean from each individual data point, square the difference, and sum up over all the squared differences. Thus, in our example, the total sum of squares can be calculated as:

\[ \begin{align} SS_T =&(13−24.67)^2 + (14−24.67)^2 + … + (2−24.67)^2\\ &+(21−24.67)^2 + (18-24.67)^2 + … + (17−24.67)^2\\ &+(30−24.67)^2 + (37−24.67)^2 + … + (28−24.67)^2\\ &=30855.64 \end{align} \]

You could also compute this in R using:

For the subsequent analyses, it is important to understand the concept behind the degrees of freedom . Remember that in order to estimate a population value from a sample, we need to hold something in the population constant. In ANOVA, the df are generally one less than the number of values used to calculate the SS. For example, when we estimate the population mean from a sample, we assume that the sample mean is equal to the population mean. Then, in order to estimate the population mean from the sample, all but one scores are free to vary and the remaining score needs to be the value that keeps the population mean constant. In our example, we used all 300 observations to calculate the sum of square, so the total degrees of freedom (df T ) are:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} df_T = N-1=300-1=299 \end{split} \tag{5.1} \end{equation}\]

5.4.2.2 Model sum of squares

Now we know that there are 26646.33 units of total variation in our data. Next, we compute how much of the total variation can be explained by the differences between groups (i.e., our experimental manipulation). To compute the explained variation in the data, we consider the difference between the values predicted by our model for each observation (i.e., the group mean) and the grand mean. The group mean refers to the mean value within the experimental group. The vertical lines in the following plot measure how far the predicted value for each observation (i.e., the group mean) is away from the grand mean:

Figure 5.5: Model Sum of Squares

The formal representation of the model sum of squares (SS M ) is:

\[ SS_M= \sum_{j=1}^{c} n_j(\bar{Y}_j-\bar{Y})^2 \]

where c denotes the number of categories (experimental groups). This means that we need to subtract the grand mean from each group mean, square the difference, and sum up over all the squared differences. Thus, in our example, the model sum of squares can be calculated as:

\[ \begin{align} SS_M &= 100*(15.47−24.67)^2 + 100*(24.88−24.67)^2 + 100*(33.66−24.67)^2 \\ &= 21321.21 \end{align} \]

You could also compute this manually in R using:

In this case, we used the three group means to calculate the sum of squares, so the model degrees of freedom (df M ) are:

\[ df_M= c-1=3-1=2 \]

5.4.2.3 Residual sum of squares

Lastly, we calculate the amount of variation that cannot be explained by our model. In ANOVA, this is the sum of squared distances between what the model predicts for each data point (i.e., the group means) and the observed values. In other words, this refers to the amount of variation that is caused by extraneous factors, such as differences between product characteristics of the products in the different experimental groups. The vertical lines in the following plot measure how far each observation is away from the group mean:

Figure 5.6: Residual Sum of Squares

The formal representation of the residual sum of squares (SS R ) is:

\[ SS_R= \sum_{j=1}^{c} \sum_{i=1}^{n} ({Y}_{ij}-\bar{Y}_{j})^2 \]

This means that we need to subtract the group mean from each individual observation, square the difference, and sum up over all the squared differences. Thus, in our example, the model sum of squares can be calculated as:

\[ \begin{align} SS_R =& (13−14.34)^2 + (14−14.34)^2 + … + (2−14.34)^2 \\ +&(21−24.7)^2 + (18−24.7)^2 + … + (17−24.7)^2 \\ +& (30−34.99)^2 + (37−34.99)^2 + … + (28−34.99)^2 \\ =& 9534.43 \end{align} \]

In this case, we used the 10 values for each of the SS for each group, so the residual degrees of freedom (df R ) are:

\[ \begin{align} df_R=& (n_1-1)+(n_2-1)+(n_3-1) \\ =&(100-1)+(100-1)+(100-1)=297 \end{align} \]

5.4.2.4 Effect strength

Once you have computed the different sum of squares, you can investigate the effect strength. \(\eta^2\) is a measure of the variation in Y that is explained by X:

\[ \eta^2= \frac{SS_M}{SS_T}=\frac{21321.21}{30855.64}=0.69 \]

To compute this in R:

The statistic can only take values between 0 and 1. It is equal to 0 when all the category means are equal, indicating that X has no effect on Y. In contrast, it has a value of 1 when there is no variability within each category of X but there is some variability between categories.

5.4.2.5 Test of significance

How can we determine whether the effect of X on Y is significant?

• First, we calculate the fit of the most basic model (i.e., the grand mean)
• Then, we calculate the fit of the “best” model (i.e., the group means)
• A good model should fit the data significantly better than the basic model
• The F-statistic or F-ratio compares the amount of systematic variance in the data to the amount of unsystematic variance

The F-statistic uses the ratio of mean square related to X (explained variation) and the mean square related to the error (unexplained variation):

\(\frac{SS_M}{SS_R}\)

However, since these are summed values, their magnitude is influenced by the number of scores that were summed. For example, to calculate SS M we only used the sum of 3 values (the group means), while we used 30 and 27 values to calculate SS T and SS R , respectively. Thus, we calculate the average sum of squares (“mean square”) to compare the average amount of systematic vs. unsystematic variation by dividing the SS values by the degrees of freedom associated with the respective statistic.

Mean square due to X:

\[ MS_M= \frac{SS_M}{df_M}=\frac{SS_M}{c-1}=\frac{21321.21}{(3-1)} \]

Mean square due to error:

\[ MS_R= \frac{SS_R}{df_R}=\frac{SS_R}{N-c}=\frac{9534.43}{(300-3)} \]

Now, we compare the amount of variability explained by the model (experiment), to the error in the model (variation due to extraneous variables). If the model explains more variability than it can’t explain, then the experimental manipulation has had a significant effect on the outcome (DV). The F-radio can be derived as follows:

\[ F= \frac{MS_M}{MS_R}=\frac{\frac{SS_M}{c-1}}{\frac{SS_R}{N-c}}=\frac{\frac{21321.21}{(3-1)}}{\frac{9534.43}{(300-3)}}=332.08 \]

You can easily compute this in R:

This statistic follows the F distribution with (m = c – 1) and (n = N – c) degrees of freedom. This means that, like the \(\chi^2\) distribution, the shape of the F-distribution depends on the degrees of freedom. In this case, the shape depends on the degrees of freedom associated with the numerator and denominator used to compute the F-ratio. The following figure shows the shape of the F-distribution for different degrees of freedom:

The F distribution

The outcome of the test is one of the following:

• If the null hypothesis of equal category means is not rejected, then the independent variable does not have a significant effect on the dependent variable
• If the null hypothesis is rejected, then the effect of the independent variable is significant

For 2 and 297 degrees of freedom, the critical value of F is 3.026 for α=0.05. As usual, you can either look up these values in a table or use the appropriate function in R:

The output tells us that the calculated test statistic exceeds the critical value. We can also show the test result visually:

Visual depiction of the test result

Thus, we conclude that because F CAL = 332.08 > F CR = 3.03, H 0 is rejected!

Interpretation: one or more of the differences between means are statistically significant.

Reporting: There was a significant effect of promotion on sales levels, F(2,297) = 332.08, p < 0.05, \(\eta^2\) = 0.69.

Remember: This doesn’t tell us where the differences between groups lie. To find out which group means exactly differ, we need to use post-hoc procedures (see below).

You don’t have to compute these statistics manually! Luckily, there is a function for ANOVA in R, which does the above calculations for you as we will see in the next section.

5.4.3 One-way ANOVA

5.4.3.1 basic anova.

As already indicated, one-way ANOVA is used when there is only one categorical variable (factor). Before conducting ANOVA, you need to check if the assumptions of the test are fulfilled. The assumptions of ANOVA are discussed in the following sections.

Independence of observations

The observations in the groups should be independent. Because we randomly assigned the listeners to the experimental conditions, this assumption can be assumed to be met.

Distributional assumptions

ANOVA is relatively immune to violations to the normality assumption when sample sizes are large due to the Central Limit Theorem. However, if your sample is small (i.e., n < 30 per group) you may nevertheless want to check the normality of your data, e.g., by using the Shapiro-Wilk test or QQ-Plot. In our example, we have 100 observations in each group which is plenty but let’s create another example with only 10 observations in each group. In the latter case we cannot rely on the Central Limit Theorem and we should test the normality of our data. This can be done using the Shapiro-Wilk Test, which has the Null Hypothesis that the data is normally distributed. Hence, an insignificant test results means that the data can be assumed to be approximately normally distributed:

Since the test result is insignificant for all groups, we can conclude that the data approximately follow a normal distribution.

We could also test the distributional assumptions visually using a Q-Q plot (i.e., quantile-quantile plot). This plot can be used to assess if a set of data plausibly came from some theoretical distribution such as the Normal distribution. Since this is just a visual check, it is somewhat subjective. But it may help us to judge if our assumption is plausible, and if not, which data points contribute to the violation. A Q-Q plot is a scatterplot created by plotting two sets of quantiles against one another. If both sets of quantiles came from the same distribution, we should see the points forming a line that’s roughly straight. In other words, Q-Q plots take your sample data, sort it in ascending order, and then plot them versus quantiles calculated from a theoretical distribution. Quantiles are often referred to as “percentiles” and refer to the points in your data below which a certain proportion of your data fall. Recall, for example, the standard Normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Since the 50th percentile (or 0.5 quantile) is 0, half the data lie below 0. The 95th percentile (or 0.95 quantile), is about 1.64, which means that 95 percent of the data lie below 1.64. The 97.5th quantile is about 1.96, which means that 97.5% of the data lie below 1.96. In the Q-Q plot, the number of quantiles is selected to match the size of your sample data.

To create the Q-Q plot for the normal distribution, you may use the qqnorm() function, which takes the data to be tested as an argument. Using the qqline() function subsequently on the data creates the line on which the data points should fall based on the theoretical quantiles. If the individual data points deviate a lot from this line, it means that the data is not likely to follow a normal distribution.

Figure 5.7: Q-Q plot 1

Figure 5.8: Q-Q plot 2

Figure 5.9: Q-Q plot 3

The Q-Q plots suggest an approximately Normal distribution. If the assumption had been violated, you might consider transforming your data or resort to a non-parametric test.

Homogeneity of variance

Let’s return to our original dataset with 100 observations in each group for the rest of the analysis.

You can test the homogeneity of variances in R using Levene’s test:

The null hypothesis of the test is that the group variances are equal. Thus, if the test result is significant it means that the variances are not equal. If we cannot reject the null hypothesis (i.e., the group variances are not significantly different), we can proceed with the ANOVA as follows:

You can see that the p-value is smaller than 0.05. This means that, if there really was no difference between the population means (i.e., the Null hypothesis was true), the probability of the observed differences (or larger differences) is less than 5%.

To compute η 2 from the output, we can extract the relevant sum of squares as follows

You can see that the results match the results from our manual computation above ( \(\eta^2 =\) 0.69).

The aov() function also automatically generates some plots that you can use to judge if the model assumptions are met. We will inspect two of the plots here.

We will use the first plot to inspect if the residual variances are equal across the experimental groups:

Generally, the residual variance (i.e., the range of values on the y-axis) should be the same for different levels of our independent variable. The plot shows, that there are some slight differences. Notably, the range of residuals is higher in group “B” than in group “C”. However, the differences are not that large and since the Levene’s test could not reject the Null of equal variances, we conclude that the variances are similar enough in this case.

The second plot can be used to test the assumption that the residuals are approximately normally distributed. We use a Q-Q plot to test this assumption:

The plot suggests that, the residuals are approximately normally distributed. We could also test this by extracting the residuals from the anova output using the resid() function and using the Shapiro-Wilk test:

Confirming the impression from the Q-Q plot, we cannot reject the Null that the residuals are approximately normally distributed.

Note that if Levene’s test would have been significant (i.e., variances are not equal), we would have needed to either resort to non-parametric tests (see below), or compute the Welch’s F-ratio instead:

You can see that the results are fairly similar, since the variances turned out to be fairly equal across groups.

5.4.3.2 Post-hoc tests

Provided that significant differences were detected by the overall ANOVA you can find out which group means are different using post hoc procedures. Post hoc procedures are designed to conduct pairwise comparisons of all different combinations of the treatment groups by correcting the level of significance for each test such that the overall Type I error rate (α) across all comparisons remains at 0.05.

In other words, we rejected H 0 : μ 1 = μ 2 = μ 3 , and now we would like to test:

\[H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_2\]

\[H_0: \mu_1 = \mu_3\]

\[H_0: \mu_2 = \mu_3\]

There are several post hoc procedures available to choose from. In this tutorial, we will cover Bonferroni and Tukey’s HSD (“honest significant differences”). Both tests control for family-wise error. Bonferroni tends to have more power when the number of comparisons is small, whereas Tukey’ HSDs is better when testing large numbers of means.

5.4.3.2.1 Bonferroni

One of the most popular (and easiest) methods to correct for the family-wise error rate is to conduct the individual t-tests and divide α by the number of comparisons („k“):

\[ p_{CR}= \frac{\alpha}{k} \]

In our example with three groups:

\[p_{CR}= \frac{0.05}{3}=0.017\]

Thus, the “corrected” critical p-value is now 0.017 instead of 0.05 (i.e., the critical t value is higher). You can implement the Bonferroni procedure in R using:

In the output, you will get the corrected p-values for the individual tests. In our example, we can reject H 0 of equal means for all three tests, since p < 0.05 for all combinations of groups.

Note the difference between the results from the post-hoc test compared to individual t-tests. For example, when we test the “B” vs. “C” groups, the result from a t-test would be:

Usually the p-value is lower in the t-test, reflecting the fact that the family-wise error is not corrected (i.e., the test is less conservative). In this case the p-value is extremely small in both cases and thus indistinguishable.

5.4.3.2.2 Tukey’s HSD

Tukey’s HSD also compares all possible pairs of means (two-by-two combinations; i.e., like a t-test, except that it corrects for family-wise error rate).

Test statistic:

\[\begin{equation} \begin{split} HSD= q\sqrt{\frac{MS_R}{n_c}} \end{split} \tag{5.2} \end{equation}\]

• q = value from studentized range table (see e.g., here )
• MS R = Mean Square Error from ANOVA
• n c = number of observations per group
• Decision: Reject H 0 if

\[|\bar{Y}_i-\bar{Y}_j | > HSD\]

The value from the studentized range table can be obtained using the qtukey() function.

\[HSD= 3.33\sqrt{\frac{33.99}{100}}=1.94\]

Since all mean differences between groups are larger than 1.906, we can reject the null hypothesis for all individual tests, confirming the results from the Bonferroni test. To compute Tukey’s HSD, we can use the appropriate function from the multcomp package.

We may also plot the result for the mean differences incl. their confidence intervals:

Figure 5.10: Tukey’s HSD

You can see that the CIs do not cross zero, which means that the true difference between group means is unlikely zero.

Reporting of post hoc results:

The post hoc tests based on Bonferroni and Tukey’s HSD revealed that people listened to music significantly more when:

• they had access to user created playlists vs. those who did not,
• they got recommendations vs. those who did not. This is true for both the control group “A” as well as treatment “B”.

The following video summarizes how to conduct a one-way ANOVA in R

5.5 Non-parametric tests

Non-Parametric tests do not require the sampling distribution to be normally distributed (a.k.a. “assumption free tests”). These tests may be used when the variable of interest is measured on an ordinal scale or when the parametric assumptions do not hold. They often rely on ranking the data instead of analyzing the actual scores. By ranking the data, information on the magnitude of differences is lost. Thus, parametric tests are more powerful if the sampling distribution is normally distributed.

When should you use non-parametric tests?

• When your DV is measured on an ordinal scale
• When your data is better represented by the median (e.g., there are outliers that you can’t remove)
• When the assumptions of parametric tests are not met (e.g., normally distributed sampling distribution)
• You have a very small sample size (i.e., the central limit theorem does not apply)

5.5.1 Mann-Whitney U Test (a.k.a. Wilcoxon rank-sum test)

The Mann-Whitney U test is a non-parametric test of differences between groups, similar to the two sample t-test. In contrast to the two sample t-test it only requires ordinally scaled data and relies on weaker assumptions. Thus it is often useful if the assumptions of the t-test are violated, especially if the data is not on a ratio scale. The following assumptions must be fulfilled for the test to be applicable:

• The dependent variable is at least ordinally scaled (i.e. a ranking between values can be established)
• The independent variable has only two levels
• A between-subjects design is used (i.e., the subjects are not matched across conditions)

Intuitively, the test compares the frequency of low and high ranks between groups. Under the null hypothesis, the amount of high and low ranks should be roughly equal in the two groups. This is achieved through comparing the expected sum of ranks to the actual sum of ranks.

As an example, we will be using data obtained from a field experiment with random assignment. In a music download store, new releases were randomly assigned to an experimental group and sold at a reduced price (i.e., 7.95€), or a control group and sold at the standard price (9.95€). A representative sample of 102 new releases were sampled and these albums were randomly assigned to the experimental groups (i.e., 51 albums per group). The sales were tracked over one day.

Let’s load and investigate the data first:

Inspect descriptives (overall and by group).

Create boxplot and plot of means.

Figure 5.11: Boxplot

Let’s assume that one of the parametric assumptions has been violated and we needed to conduct a non-parametric test. Then, the Mann-Whitney U test is implemented in R using the function wilcox.test() . Using the ranking data as an independent variable and the listening time as a dependent variable, the test could be executed as follows:

The p-value is smaller than 0.05, which leads us to reject the null hypothesis, i.e. the test yields evidence that the new service feature leads to higher music listening times.

5.5.2 Wilcoxon signed-rank test

The Wilcoxon signed-rank test is a non-parametric test used to analyze the difference between paired observations, analogously to the paired t-test. It can be used when measurements come from the same observational units but the distributional assumptions of the paired t-test do not hold, because it does not require any assumptions about the distribution of the measurements. Since we subtract two values, however, the test requires that the dependent variable is at least interval scaled, meaning that intervals have the same meaning for different points on our measurement scale.

Under the null hypothesis \(H_0\) , the differences of the measurements should follow a symmetric distribution around 0, meaning that, on average, there is no difference between the two matched samples. \(H_1\) states that the distributions mean is non-zero.

As an example, let’s consider a slightly different experimental setup for the music download store. Imagine that new releases were either sold at a reduced price (i.e., 7.95€), or at the standard price (9.95€). Every time a customer came to the store, the prices were randomly determined for every new release. This means that the same 51 albums were either sold at the standard price or at the reduced price and this price was determined randomly. The sales were then recorded over one day. Note the difference to the previous case, where we randomly split the sample and assigned 50% of products to each condition. Now, we randomly vary prices for all albums between high and low prices.

Again, let’s assume that one of the prarametric assumptions has been violated and we needed to conduct a non-parametric test. Then the Wilcoxon signed-rank test can be performed with the same command as the Mann-Whitney U test, provided that the argument paired is set to TRUE .

Using the 95% confidence level, the result would suggest a significant effect of price on sales (i.e., p < 0.05).

5.5.3 Kruskal-Wallis test

• When the dependent variable is measured at an ordinal scale and we want to compare more than 2 means
• When the assumptions of independent ANOVA are not met (e.g., assumptions regarding the sampling distribution in small samples)

The Kruskal–Wallis test is the non-parametric counterpart of the one-way independent ANOVA. It is designed to test for significant differences in population medians when you have more than two samples (otherwise you would use the Mann-Whitney U-test). The theory is very similar to that of the Mann–Whitney U-test since it is also based on ranked data. The Kruskal-Wallis test is carried out using the kruskal.test() function. Using the same data as before, we type:

The test-statistic follows a chi-square distribution and since the test is significant (p < 0.05), we can conclude that there are significant differences in population medians. Provided that the overall effect is significant, you may perform a post hoc test to find out which groups are different. To get a first impression, we can plot the data using a boxplot:

Figure 5.12: Boxplot

To test for differences between groups, we can, for example, apply post hoc tests according to Nemenyi for pairwise multiple comparisons of the ranked data using the appropriate function from the PMCMR package.

The results reveal that there is a significant difference between the “low” and “high” promotion groups. Note that the results are different compared to the results from the parametric test above. This difference occurs because non-parametric tests have more power to detect differences between groups since we lose information by ranking the data. Thus, you should rely on parametric tests if the assumptions are met.

5.6 Categorical data

In some instances, you will be confronted with differences between proportions, rather than differences between means. For example, you may conduct an A/B-Test and wish to compare the conversion rates between two advertising campaigns. In this case, your data is binary (0 = no conversion, 1 = conversion) and the sampling distribution for such data is binomial. While binomial probabilities are difficult to calculate, we can use a Normal approximation to the binomial when n is large (>100) and the true likelihood of a 1 is not too close to 0 or 1.

Let’s use an example: assume a call center where service agents call potential customers to sell a product. We consider two call center agents:

• Service agent 1 talks to 300 customers and gets 200 of them to buy (conversion rate=2/3)
• Service agent 2 talks to 300 customers and gets 100 of them to buy (conversion rate=1/3)

As always, we load the data first:

Next, we create a table to check the relative frequencies:

We could also plot the data to visualize the frequencies using ggplot:

Figure 5.13: proportion of conversions per agent (stacked bar chart)

… or using the mosaicplot() function:

Figure 5.14: proportion of conversions per agent (mosaic plot)

5.6.1 Confidence intervals for proportions

Recall that we can use confidence intervals to determine the range of values that the true population parameter will take with a certain level of confidence based on the sample. Similar to the confidence interval for means, we can compute a confidence interval for proportions. The (1- \(\alpha\) )% confidence interval for proportions is approximately

\[ CI = p\pm z_{1-\frac{\alpha}{2}}*\sqrt{\frac{p*(1-p)}{N}} \]

where \(\sqrt{p(1-p)}\) is the equivalent to the standard deviation in the formula for the confidence interval for means. Based on the equation, it is easy to compute the confidence intervals for the conversion rates of the call center agents:

Similar to testing for differences in means, we could also ask: Is agent 1 twice as likely as agent 2 to convert a customer? Or, to state it formally:

\[H_0: \pi_1=\pi_2 \\ H_1: \pi_1\ne \pi_2\]

where \(\pi\) denotes the population parameter associated with the proportion in the respective population. One approach to test this is based on confidence intervals to estimate the difference between two populations. We can compute an approximate confidence interval for the difference between the proportion of successes in group 1 and group 2, as:

\[ CI = p_1-p_2\pm z_{1-\frac{\alpha}{2}}*\sqrt{\frac{p_1*(1-p_1)}{n_1}+\frac{p_2*(1-p_2)}{n_2}} \]

If the confidence interval includes zero, then the data does not suggest a difference between the groups. Let’s compute the confidence interval for differences in the proportions by hand first:

Now we can see that the 95% confidence interval estimate of the difference between the proportion of conversions for agent 1 and the proportion of conversions for agent 2 is between 26% and 41%. This interval tells us the range of plausible values for the difference between the two population proportions. According to this interval, zero is not a plausible value for the difference (i.e., interval does not cross zero), so we reject the null hypothesis that the population proportions are the same.

Instead of computing the intervals by hand, we could also use the prop.test() function:

Note that the prop.test() function uses a slightly different (more accurate) way to compute the confidence interval (Wilson’s score method is used). It is particularly a better approximation for smaller N. That’s why the confidence interval in the output slightly deviates from the manual computation above, which uses the Wald interval.

You can also see that the output from the prop.test() includes the results from a χ 2 test for the equality of proportions (which will be discussed below) and the associated p-value. Since the p-value is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis of equal probability. Thus, the reporting would be:

The test showed that the conversion rate for agent 1 was higher by 33%. This difference is significant χ (1) = 70, p < .05 (95% CI = [0.25,0.41]).

5.6.2 Chi-square test

In the previous section, we saw how we can compute the confidence interval for the difference between proportions to decide on whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. Whenever you would like to investigate the relationship between two categorical variables, the \(\chi^2\) test may be used to test whether the variables are independent of each other. It achieves this by comparing the expected number of observations in a group to the actual values. Let’s continue with the example from the previous section. Under the null hypothesis, the two variables agent and conversion in our contingency table are independent (i.e., there is no relationship). This means that the frequency in each field will be roughly proportional to the probability of an observation being in that category, calculated under the assumption that they are independent. The difference between that expected quantity and the actual quantity can be used to construct the test statistic. The test statistic is computed as follows:

\[ \chi^2=\sum_{i=1}^{J}\frac{(f_o-f_e)^2}{f_e} \]

where \(J\) is the number of cells in the contingency table, \(f_o\) are the observed cell frequencies and \(f_e\) are the expected cell frequencies. The larger the differences, the larger the test statistic and the smaller the p-value.

The observed cell frequencies can easily be seen from the contingency table:

The expected cell frequencies can be calculated as follows:

\[ f_e=\frac{(n_r*n_c)}{n} \]

where \(n_r\) are the total observed frequencies per row, \(n_c\) are the total observed frequencies per column, and \(n\) is the total number of observations. Thus, the expected cell frequencies under the assumption of independence can be calculated as:

To sum up, these are the expected cell frequencies

… and these are the observed cell frequencies

To obtain the test statistic, we simply plug the values into the formula:

The test statistic is \(\chi^2\) distributed. The chi-square distribution is a non-symmetric distribution. Actually, there are many different chi-square distributions, one for each degree of freedom as show in the following figure.

Figure 5.15: The chi-square distribution

You can see that as the degrees of freedom increase, the chi-square curve approaches a normal distribution. To find the critical value, we need to specify the corresponding degrees of freedom, given by:

\[ df=(r-1)*(c-1) \]

where \(r\) is the number of rows and \(c\) is the number of columns in the contingency table. Recall that degrees of freedom are generally the number of values that can vary freely when calculating a statistic. In a 2 by 2 table as in our case, we have 2 variables (or two samples) with 2 levels and in each one we have 1 that vary freely. Hence, in our example the degrees of freedom can be calculated as:

Now, we can derive the critical value given the degrees of freedom and the level of confidence using the qchisq() function and test if the calculated test statistic is larger than the critical value:

Figure 5.16: Visual depiction of the test result

We could also compute the p-value using the pchisq() function, which tells us the probability of the observed cell frequencies if the null hypothesis was true (i.e., there was no association):

The test statistic can also be calculated in R directly on the contingency table with the function chisq.test() .

Since the p-value is smaller than 0.05 (i.e., the calculated test statistic is larger than the critical value), we reject H 0 that the two variables are independent.

Note that the test statistic is sensitive to the sample size. To see this, let’s assume that we have a sample of 100 observations instead of 1000 observations:

You can see that even though the proportions haven’t changed, the test is insignificant now. The following equation lets you compute a measure of the effect size, which is insensitive to sample size:

\[ \phi=\sqrt{\frac{\chi^2}{n}} \]

The following guidelines are used to determine the magnitude of the effect size (Cohen, 1988):

• 0.1 (small effect)
• 0.3 (medium effect)
• 0.5 (large effect)

In our example, we can compute the effect sizes for the large and small samples as follows:

You can see that the statistic is insensitive to the sample size.

Note that the Φ coefficient is appropriate for two dichotomous variables (resulting from a 2 x 2 table as above). If any your nominal variables has more than two categories, Cramér’s V should be used instead:

\[ V=\sqrt{\frac{\chi^2}{n*df_{min}}} \]

where \(df_{min}\) refers to the degrees of freedom associated with the variable that has fewer categories (e.g., if we have two nominal variables with 3 and 4 categories, \(df_{min}\) would be 3 - 1 = 2). The degrees of freedom need to be taken into account when judging the magnitude of the effect sizes (see e.g., here ).

Note that the correct = FALSE argument above ensures that the test statistic is computed in the same way as we have done by hand above. By default, chisq.test() applies a correction to prevent overestimation of statistical significance for small data (called the Yates’ correction). The correction is implemented by subtracting the value 0.5 from the computed difference between the observed and expected cell counts in the numerator of the test statistic. This means that the calculated test statistic will be smaller (i.e., more conservative). Although the adjustment may go too far in some instances, you should generally rely on the adjusted results, which can be computed as follows:

As you can see, the results don’t change much in our example, since the differences between the observed and expected cell frequencies are fairly large relative to the correction.

Caution is warranted when the cell counts in the contingency table are small. The usual rule of thumb is that all cell counts should be at least 5 (this may be a little too stringent though). When some cell counts are too small, you can use Fisher’s exact test using the fisher.test() function.

The Fisher test, while more conservative, also shows a significant difference between the proportions (p < 0.05). This is not surprising since the cell counts in our example are fairly large.

5.6.3 Sample size

To calculate the required sample size when comparing proportions, the power.prop.test() function can be used. For example, we could ask how large our sample needs to be if we would like to compare two groups with conversion rates of 2% and 2.5%, respectively using the conventional settings for \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) :

The output tells us that we need 13809 observations per group to detect a difference of the desired size.

How to Generate and Validate Product Hypotheses

Every product owner knows that it takes effort to build something that'll cater to user needs. You'll have to make many tough calls if you wish to grow the company and evolve the product so it delivers more value. But how do you decide what to change in the product, your marketing strategy, or the overall direction to succeed? And how do you make a product that truly resonates with your target audience?

There are many unknowns in business, so many fundamental decisions start from a simple "what if?". But they can't be based on guesses, as you need some proof to fill in the blanks reasonably.

Because there's no universal recipe for successfully building a product, teams collect data, do research, study the dynamics, and generate hypotheses according to the given facts. They then take corresponding actions to find out whether they were right or wrong, make conclusions, and most likely restart the process again.

On this page, we thoroughly inspect product hypotheses. We'll go over what they are, how to create hypothesis statements and validate them, and what goes after this step.

What Is a Hypothesis in Product Management?

A hypothesis in product development and product management is a statement or assumption about the product, planned feature, market, or customer (e.g., their needs, behavior, or expectations) that you can put to the test, evaluate, and base your further decisions on . This may, for instance, regard the upcoming product changes as well as the impact they can result in.

A hypothesis implies that there is limited knowledge. Hence, the teams need to undergo testing activities to validate their ideas and confirm whether they are true or false.

Hypotheses guide the product development process and may point at important findings to help build a better product that'll serve user needs. In essence, teams create hypothesis statements in an attempt to improve the offering, boost engagement, increase revenue, find product-market fit quicker, or for other business-related reasons.

It's sort of like an experiment with trial and error, yet, it is data-driven and should be unbiased . This means that teams don't make assumptions out of the blue. Instead, they turn to the collected data, conducted market research , and factual information, which helps avoid completely missing the mark. The obtained results are then carefully analyzed and may influence decision-making.

Such experiments backed by data and analysis are an integral aspect of successful product development and allow startups or businesses to dodge costly startup mistakes .

‍ When do teams create hypothesis statements and validate them? To some extent, hypothesis testing is an ongoing process to work on constantly. It may occur during various product development life cycle stages, from early phases like initiation to late ones like scaling.

In any event, the key here is learning how to generate hypothesis statements and validate them effectively. We'll go over this in more detail later on.

Idea vs. Hypothesis Compared

You might be wondering whether ideas and hypotheses are the same thing. Well, there are a few distinctions.

An idea is simply a suggested proposal. Say, a teammate comes up with something you can bring to life during a brainstorming session or pitches in a suggestion like "How about we shorten the checkout process?". You can jot down such ideas and then consider working on them if they'll truly make a difference and improve the product, strategy, or result in other business benefits. Ideas may thus be used as the hypothesis foundation when you decide to prove a concept.

A hypothesis is the next step, when an idea gets wrapped with specifics to become an assumption that may be tested. As such, you can refine the idea by adding details to it. The previously mentioned idea can be worded into a product hypothesis statement like: "The cart abandonment rate is high, and many users flee at checkout. But if we shorten the checkout process by cutting down the number of steps to only two and get rid of four excessive fields, we'll simplify the user journey, boost satisfaction, and may get up to 15% more completed orders".

A hypothesis is something you can test in an attempt to reach a certain goal. Testing isn't obligatory in this scenario, of course, but the idea may be tested if you weigh the pros and cons and decide that the required effort is worth a try. We'll explain how to create hypothesis statements next.

How to Generate a Hypothesis for a Product

The last thing those developing a product want is to invest time and effort into something that won't bring any visible results, fall short of customer expectations, or won't live up to their needs. Therefore, to increase the chances of achieving a successful outcome and product-led growth , teams may need to revisit their product development approach by optimizing one of the starting points of the process: learning to make reasonable product hypotheses.

If the entire procedure is structured, this may assist you during such stages as the discovery phase and raise the odds of reaching your product goals and setting your business up for success. Yet, what's the entire process like?

• It all starts with identifying an existing problem . Is there a product area that's experiencing a downfall, a visible trend, or a market gap? Are users often complaining about something in their feedback? Or is there something you're willing to change (say, if you aim to get more profit, increase engagement, optimize a process, expand to a new market, or reach your OKRs and KPIs faster)?
• Teams then need to work on formulating a hypothesis . They put the statement into concise and short wording that describes what is expected to achieve. Importantly, it has to be relevant, actionable, backed by data, and without generalizations.
• Next, they have to test the hypothesis by running experiments to validate it (for instance, via A/B or multivariate testing, prototyping, feedback collection, or other ways).
• Then, the obtained results of the test must be analyzed . Did one element or page version outperform the other? Depending on what you're testing, you can look into various merits or product performance metrics (such as the click rate, bounce rate, or the number of sign-ups) to assess whether your prediction was correct.
• Finally, the teams can make conclusions that could lead to data-driven decisions. For example, they can make corresponding changes or roll back a step.

How Else Can You Generate Product Hypotheses?

Such processes imply sharing ideas when a problem is spotted by digging deep into facts and studying the possible risks, goals, benefits, and outcomes. You may apply various MVP tools like (FigJam, Notion, or Miro) that were designed to simplify brainstorming sessions, systemize pitched suggestions, and keep everyone organized without losing any ideas.

Predictive product analysis can also be integrated into this process, leveraging data and insights to anticipate market trends and consumer preferences, thus enhancing decision-making and product development strategies. This approach fosters a more proactive and informed approach to innovation, ensuring products are not only relevant but also resonate with the target audience, ultimately increasing their chances of success in the market.

Besides, you can settle on one of the many frameworks that facilitate decision-making processes , ideation phases, or feature prioritization . Such frameworks are best applicable if you need to test your assumptions and structure the validation process. These are a few common ones if you're looking toward a systematic approach:

• Business Model Canvas (used to establish the foundation of the business model and helps find answers to vitals like your value proposition, finding the right customer segment, or the ways to make revenue);
• Lean Startup framework (the lean startup framework uses a diagram-like format for capturing major processes and can be handy for testing various hypotheses like how much value a product brings or assumptions on personas, the problem, growth, etc.);
• Design Thinking Process (is all about interactive learning and involves getting an in-depth understanding of the customer needs and pain points, which can be formulated into hypotheses followed by simple prototypes and tests).

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How to Make a Hypothesis Statement for a Product

Once you've indicated the addressable problem or opportunity and broken down the issue in focus, you need to work on formulating the hypotheses and associated tasks. By the way, it works the same way if you want to prove that something will be false (a.k.a null hypothesis).

If you're unsure how to write a hypothesis statement, let's explore the essential steps that'll set you on the right track.

Step 1: Allocate the Variable Components

Product hypotheses are generally different for each case, so begin by pinpointing the major variables, i.e., the cause and effect . You'll need to outline what you think is supposed to happen if a change or action gets implemented.

Put simply, the "cause" is what you're planning to change, and the "effect" is what will indicate whether the change is bringing in the expected results. Falling back on the example we brought up earlier, the ineffective checkout process can be the cause, while the increased percentage of completed orders is the metric that'll show the effect.

Make sure to also note such vital points as:

• what the problem and solution are;
• what are the benefits or the expected impact/successful outcome;
• which user group is affected;
• what are the risks;
• what kind of experiments can help test the hypothesis;
• what can measure whether you were right or wrong.

Step 2: Ensure the Connection Is Specific and Logical

Mind that generic connections that lack specifics will get you nowhere. So if you're thinking about how to word a hypothesis statement, make sure that the cause and effect include clear reasons and a logical dependency .

Think about what can be the precise and link showing why A affects B. In our checkout example, it could be: fewer steps in the checkout and the removed excessive fields will speed up the process, help avoid confusion, irritate users less, and lead to more completed orders. That's much more explicit than just stating the fact that the checkout needs to be changed to get more completed orders.

Step 3: Decide on the Data You'll Collect

Certainly, multiple things can be used to measure the effect. Therefore, you need to choose the optimal metrics and validation criteria that'll best envision if you're moving in the right direction.

If you need a tip on how to create hypothesis statements that won't result in a waste of time, try to avoid vagueness and be as specific as you can when selecting what can best measure and assess the results of your hypothesis test. The criteria must be measurable and tied to the hypotheses . This can be a realistic percentage or number (say, you expect a 15% increase in completed orders or 2x fewer cart abandonment cases during the checkout phase).

Once again, if you're not realistic, then you might end up misinterpreting the results. Remember that sometimes an increase that's even as little as 2% can make a huge difference, so why make 50% the merit if it's not achievable in the first place?

Step 4: Settle on the Sequence

It's quite common that you'll end up with multiple product hypotheses. Some are more important than others, of course, and some will require more effort and input.

Therefore, just as with the features on your product development roadmap , prioritize your hypotheses according to their impact and importance. Then, group and order them, especially if the results of some hypotheses influence others on your list.

Product Hypothesis Examples

To demonstrate how to formulate your assumptions clearly, here are several more apart from the example of a hypothesis statement given above:

• Adding a wishlist feature to the cart with the possibility to send a gift hint to friends via email will increase the likelihood of making a sale and bring in additional sign-ups.
• Placing a limited-time promo code banner stripe on the home page will increase the number of sales in March.
• Moving up the call to action element on the landing page and changing the button text will increase the click-through rate twice.
• By highlighting a new way to use the product, we'll target a niche customer segment (i.e., single parents under 30) and acquire 5% more leads. 

How to Validate Hypothesis Statements: The Process Explained

There are multiple options when it comes to validating hypothesis statements. To get appropriate results, you have to come up with the right experiment that'll help you test the hypothesis. You'll need a control group or people who represent your target audience segments or groups to participate (otherwise, your results might not be accurate).

‍ What can serve as the experiment you may run? Experiments may take tons of different forms, and you'll need to choose the one that clicks best with your hypothesis goals (and your available resources, of course). The same goes for how long you'll have to carry out the test (say, a time period of two months or as little as two weeks). Here are several to get you started.

Feedback and User Testing

Talking to users, potential customers, or members of your own online startup community can be another way to test your hypotheses. You may use surveys, questionnaires, or opt for more extensive interviews to validate hypothesis statements and find out what people think. This assumption validation approach involves your existing or potential users and might require some additional time, but can bring you many insights.

Conduct A/B or Multivariate Tests

One of the experiments you may develop involves making more than one version of an element or page to see which option resonates with the users more. As such, you can have a call to action block with different wording or play around with the colors, imagery, visuals, and other things.

To run such split experiments, you can apply tools like VWO that allows to easily construct alternative designs and split what your users see (e.g., one half of the users will see version one, while the other half will see version two). You can track various metrics and apply heatmaps, click maps, and screen recordings to learn more about user response and behavior. Mind, though, that the key to such tests is to get as many users as you can give the tests time. Don't jump to conclusions too soon or if very few people participated in your experiment.

Build Prototypes and Fake Doors

Demos and clickable prototypes can be a great way to save time and money on costly feature or product development. A prototype also allows you to refine the design. However, they can also serve as experiments for validating hypotheses, collecting data, and getting feedback.

For instance, if you have a new feature in mind and want to ensure there is interest, you can utilize such MVP types as fake doors . Make a short demo recording of the feature and place it on your landing page to track interest or test how many people sign up.

Usability Testing

Similarly, you can run experiments to observe how users interact with the feature, page, product, etc. Usually, such experiments are held on prototype testing platforms with a focus group representing your target visitors. By showing a prototype or early version of the design to users, you can view how people use the solution, where they face problems, or what they don't understand. This may be very helpful if you have hypotheses regarding redesigns and user experience improvements before you move on from prototype to MVP development.

You can even take it a few steps further and build a barebone feature version that people can really interact with, yet you'll be the one behind the curtain to make it happen. There were many MVP examples when companies applied Wizard of Oz or concierge MVPs to validate their hypotheses.

Or you can actually develop some functionality but release it for only a limited number of people to see. This is referred to as a feature flag , which can show really specific results but is effort-intensive. 

What Comes After Hypothesis Validation?

Analysis is what you move on to once you've run the experiment. This is the time to review the collected data, metrics, and feedback to validate (or invalidate) the hypothesis.

You have to evaluate the experiment's results to determine whether your product hypotheses were valid or not. For example, if you were testing two versions of an element design, color scheme, or copy, look into which one performed best.

It is crucial to be certain that you have enough data to draw conclusions, though, and that it's accurate and unbiased . Because if you don't, this may be a sign that your experiment needs to be run for some additional time, be altered, or held once again. You won't want to make a solid decision based on uncertain or misleading results, right?

• If the hypothesis was supported , proceed to making corresponding changes (such as implementing a new feature, changing the design, rephrasing your copy, etc.). Remember that your aim was to learn and iterate to improve.
• If your hypothesis was proven false , think of it as a valuable learning experience. The main goal is to learn from the results and be able to adjust your processes accordingly. Dig deep to find out what went wrong, look for patterns and things that may have skewed the results. But if all signs show that you were wrong with your hypothesis, accept this outcome as a fact, and move on. This can help you make conclusions on how to better formulate your product hypotheses next time. Don't be too judgemental, though, as a failed experiment might only mean that you need to improve the current hypothesis, revise it, or create a new one based on the results of this experiment, and run the process once more.

On another note, make sure to record your hypotheses and experiment results . Some companies use CRMs to jot down the key findings, while others use something as simple as Google Docs. Either way, this can be your single source of truth that can help you avoid running the same experiments or allow you to compare results over time.

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Final Thoughts on Product Hypotheses

The hypothesis-driven approach in product development is a great way to avoid uncalled-for risks and pricey mistakes. You can back up your assumptions with facts, observe your target audience's reactions, and be more certain that this move will deliver value.

However, this only makes sense if the validation of hypothesis statements is backed by relevant data that'll allow you to determine whether the hypothesis is valid or not. By doing so, you can be certain that you're developing and testing hypotheses to accelerate your product management and avoiding decisions based on guesswork.

Certainly, a failed experiment may bring you just as much knowledge and findings as one that succeeds. Teams have to learn from their mistakes, boost their hypothesis generation and testing knowledge , and make improvements according to the results of their experiments. This is an ongoing process, of course, as no product can grow if it isn't iterated and improved.

If you're only planning to or are currently building a product, Upsilon can lend you a helping hand. Our team has years of experience providing product development services for growth-stage startups and building MVPs for early-stage businesses , so you can use our expertise and knowledge to dodge many mistakes. Don't be shy to contact us to discuss your needs! 

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